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Daily Fantasy Football October 16: DFS Stock Up, Stock Down

Fantasy Football
October 16, 2015

Daily fantasy football just keeps rolling along at DraftKings, with Week 6 of the NFL season kicking off on Thursday night. For owners who haven’t quite finalized their picks for this weekend, there are countless players to pick apart for just nine roster spots on DraftKings.

DFS owners typically keep track of injuries, matchups and players’ point production on a weekly basis. Guess what—so do we! For those who haven’t been able to monitor the stock of specific players, here’s a look at some of the hottest and heinous starts for Week 5.

Stock Up

Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals ($5,700)

If you read my stock up, stock down piece last week, you might have noticed Andy Dalton was in the stock down section. Facing a stingy Seattle Seahawks defense, I told owners the Dalton implosion was coming in Week 5.

Boy, was I wrong.

Even against a defense that had allowed 10 points in the previous two games, Dalton torched the Seahawks in the second half for 31.04 fantasy points on DraftKings. Thanks to a healthy A.J. Green along with the breakout of Tyler Eifert, this offense is for real.

Expect similar results against a Buffalo Bills defense that ranks 25th against opposing quarterbacks on DraftKings. Yeah, it appears #DaytimeDalton is a real thing, and it’s here to stay on Sunday afternoons.

Charcandrick West, RB, Kansas City Chiefs ($4,000)

He’s not just a waiver-wire target for traditional fantasy owners. With Jamaal Charles out for the season with a torn ACL, Charcandrick West has real value in DFS thanks to his updated role in the Kansas City Chiefs lineup.

West’s fantasy outlook is as difficult to predict as his name is to pronounce. But going against a Minnesota Vikings defense that is susceptible to big games from running backs—see Carlos Hyde in Week 1—West should outperform his value for DFS owners with the cojones to start him.

Marquess Wilson, WR, Chicago Bears ($4,000)

Here’s yet another option for your slot position or even a WR3 spot on DraftKings at the $4,000 price point. Marquess Wilson has been solid over the last two weeks with a combined 12 receptions, 165 yards and a touchdown.

“He’s growing up, and he kind of has to grow up,” quarterback Jay Cutler said, via Adam Jahns of ChicagoFootball.com. “He doesn’t have a choice. I’m kind of hard on him during the week. Saturday we kind of love on him a little bit to get him ready for Sunday.”

Since Cutler’s return, it’s clear that Wilson is a huge part of the Chicago Bears offense. If Alshon Jeffery returns, Wilson’s role will likely take a hit. But after proving himself for Chicago over the last two games, fantasy owners can expect decent output from the third-year receiver.

Stock Down

Jeremy Hill, RB, Cincinnati Bengals ($5,700)

Oh, Jeremy Hill. We had such high expectations for you this season. But even after a breakout game from the former LSU star in Week 4, it’s hard to start Hill with confidence after his showing last Sunday.

While he’s scored five touchdowns this season, they all came in two games. Apart from those TDs, Hill would have barely broken six fantasy points just once all season, with 63 yards rushing his season high. Up against a stout Bills rush defense, expect another off week for Hill on Sunday.

Ted Ginn Jr., WR, Carolina Panthers ($3,400)

Ted Ginn Jr. was a sneaky-good pickup for Week 4 with two touchdowns as Cam Newton‘s No. 1 target against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. However, he heads into Week 6 after the bye with a much tougher matchup against the Seattle Seahawks.

I’m well aware of what Dalton did to the Seahawks last week, but Cam Newton doesn’t exactly have the talent the Bengals have. Without Kelvin Benjamin, Ginn will be swarmed by the Legion of Boom. Newton will be forced to open up the field with his legs, but don’t look for him to connect with Ginn on a regular basis. Even at $3,400, Ginn isn’t a wise option at a WR3 or flex spot.

Jimmy Graham, TE, Seattle Seahawks ($5,400)

From the department of “What have you done for me lately?” Jimmy Graham’s response has been “nothing” over the last two weeks. A combined seven receptions for 59 yards and no touchdowns is extremely underwhelming for a former No. 1 overall tight end in fantasy.

Maybe the trade just wasn’t worth it for the Seahawks. And if they aren’t going to allow him to use his talents, don’t expect Graham to round back into form.

Will he eventually break out? Sure, there’s no reason to think he won’t find his way in this offense. But against a Panthers defense that ranks No. 1 in points allowed to tight ends? Yeah, not so much.

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Daily Fantasy Football Week 6: DraftKings Optimum Lineup Advice, Matchup Guide

Fantasy Football
October 16, 2015

There is value to be had across the board in Week 6 of daily fantasy football leagues with prices that don’t yet match up to ability of some players. Adding these players to your roster could give you a great chance of ending up in the money.

If you add these cheaper options to the top stars ready to put together huge numbers, you could be set for a big week. Here is a look at some players to build your team around in Week 6.

Quarterback

There is no reason to question Tom Brady at this point after another big game against the Dallas Cowboys. With two passing touchdowns and a rushing score as well, the quarterback finished with 25.3 fantasy points on DraftKings. Amazingly, this was his worst showing of the season.

The Indianapolis Colts have a lot of question marks in their secondary and should be unable to slow down Brady from his impressive pace to start the season.

Another top weekly option this year has been Carson Palmer, who has played much better than his current price would indicate. Pro Football Focus rates him as the No. 1 quarterback in the NFL this season based on his play, as described by Sam Monson:

Palmer’s raw statistics look nice enough. He has completed 64.9 percent of his passes for 1,316 yards and 13 touchdowns. […]

What makes all of this pretty special, however, is because Palmer plays in an offense that does things a little differently than most of the NFL. The Cardinals still attack deep down the field like few others. I don’t mean just the occasional deep shot, but rather regular deeper attempts than most of the league.

Like Palmer, Andy Dalton remains undervalued compared to the production he has provided in recent weeks. After topping 30 points against a Seattle Seahawks defense previously considered unbeatable, Dalton can certainly be trusted to continue his great season against a Buffalo Bills defense ranked 25th against opposing fantasy quarterbacks.

If you want to go bold, however, you might need a quarterback who has actually struggled through much of the year. Colin Kaepernick was arguably playing for his job in Week 5 and came through with 262 passing yards and two touchdown passes.

Against a struggling Baltimore Ravens defense that just allowed Josh McCown to throw for 457 yards, Kaepernick can surprise a lot of people with another big game. Considering he only costs the minimum for quarterbacks alongside mostly backups, there is good value to be had at the position.

Running Back

There are a few names in there who have frustrated those who do season-long leagues. However, the good thing about daily fantasy is that you don’t need an emotional attachment or even proof they have done well in the past. All you need is for them to perform well this week.

Eddie Lacy had just two fantasy points in standard leagues and hasn’t reached double digits since Week 1, but he still gets a lot of touches in a high-powered offense. His carries should actually increase with a great matchup against the San Diego Chargers, a defense that ranks dead last in the NFL with 5.1 yards allowed per carry.

Look for him to finally break some big runs and even get into the end zone at least once.

Another big weekly matchup to exploit is the Cleveland Browns, which gives C.J. Anderson a chance at redemption. Although he has been losing touches to Ronnie Hillman, Mike Clay of Pro Football Focus notes it hasn’t been as bad as it seems:

Considering not-so-prominent names like Bilal Powell, Dexter McCluster and Javorius Allen had strong showings against this defense, Anderson has a chance to do damage even with 12-15 carries.

The same could be said about Antonio Andrews, who is involved in a three-way committee with Bishop Sankey and McCluster. Still, he has become the team’s best goal-line option and even led the Tennessee Titans in receiving yards last game.

Although the Miami Dolphins could have a new attitude under new coach Dan Campbell, the facts remain the same, per James Walker:

It would take a bold pick, but Andrews has the potential for a strong showing in Week 6.

Matt Forte doesn’t have quite as easy of a matchup against the Detroit Lions, but no one has allowed more rushing touchdowns, and the Arizona Cardinals just destroyed this unit for 187 rushing yards on 7.5 per carry. With Forte getting plenty of opportunities in the offense and Jay Cutler at least forcing defenses to back off, the running back could continue putting up big numbers.

Wide Receiver

Odell Beckham Jr. is dealing with a hamstring injury while Antonio Brown hasn’t been as productive with Ben Roethlisberger out of the lineup. This leaves DeAndre Hopkins as the best option of the week, something not necessarily expected coming into the season.

Evan Silva of Rotoworld breaks down what has made Hopkins so good this year:

Even with a rotation of quarterbacks throwing him the ball, the third-year receiver leads the NFL with 578 receiving yards thanks in part to a whopping 75 targets, also most in the league. Whether the passes come in vital parts of the game or in “garbage time,” they still count in fantasy football, and they help him become a dominant force every single week on DraftKings.

Targets are also important for Brandon Marshall, who gets throws his way 11.25 times per game. This has helped him rank fourth in the NFL with exactly 100 yards per game despite a relatively low yards-per-catch rate (13.3).

In a points-per-reception contest, Marshall is one of the safest picks on the board and still comes at a reasonable price.

Those looking to save even more money could look toward another veteran in Anquan Boldin. The 49ers receiver is coming off his best game of the year (eight catches, 107 yards and a touchdown) and faces the struggling Ravens secondary. Oh yeah, and that is the team who traded Boldin when he refused to take a pay cut.

The revenge factor is there to add to the already great matchup Sunday.

For those looking for lesser-known help, Dwayne Harris ($3,100) has been on a hot streak, but Stefon Diggs might be the best play of the week. After being inactive the first three weeks of the season, Diggs finally got onto the field and ended up leading the Minnesota Vikings with 87 receiving yards, catching six of his 10 targets.

The bye week could have given the coaching staff more chances to insert plays for the rookie to help boost an inconsistent passing attack.

Note: All prices and fantasy score info courtesy of DraftKings. Unless otherwise noted, all stats courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com.


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Fantasy Football Week 6: Advanced Stats, Trends to Maximize Your Lineup

Fantasy Football
October 16, 2015

The fantasy football season is flying by, and with Week 6 already underway, it’s time to once again look at some of the advanced stats, metrics and trends you can use to maximize your lineup potential.

Player projections for the week’s top five options at each position will also be provided in this article.

Tom Brady is the top fantasy option at quarterback once again this week in a Deflategate revenge game against the Indianapolis Colts. The only question seems to be: Will Brady throw for more than 350 yards or more than over 450?

The New York Giants’ Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. also find themselves in the top five of their respective positions with a friendly matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles on tap. What type of production can you expect from this dynamic combo?

Target hog DeAndre Hopkins is atop the wide receiver rankings for the first time this season, although he’ll need some love from his quarterback near the end zone if he wishes to actually finish on top. Find out how many touchdowns we expect Hopkins to score this week.

At the tight end position, Antonio Gates has earned a spot among the top five at the position despite the fact he has only played one game so far this season. Find out what to expect from Gates in his encore.

Let’s get to some of the stats, metrics and player projections that will help you dominate in Week 6.

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Fantasy Football Duds Ready to Bounce Back in Week 6

Fantasy Football
October 16, 2015

After three weeks of the fantasy season, I found myself telling everyone not to overreact to the early struggles of top draft picks. If you were patient with a player such as Baltimore Ravens running back Justin Forsett, he rewarded you with two strong games in Weeks 4 and 5.

If you stuck with someone such as Denver Broncos running back C.J. Anderson, the results didn’t improve, and you’re seriously thinking about cutting him or have already done so because you decided five weeks is too long to wait for a player you expected to carry your team.

With five weeks behind us, any thoughts of the preseason should be gone, and draft status no longer matters. Some of you may be rolling with Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton over Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning without thinking about it twice. That probably sounded insane in early September, yet it is completely justified heading into Week 6.

I’ll be focusing on the players who’ve gotten off to slow starts but have likely remained on fantasy rosters because they’ve produced enough to justify keeping them, even if they haven’t lived up to high expectations.

When it comes to injuries, Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans has struggled to get into any kind of groove after sitting out the opener with a hamstring injury. Green Bay Packers running back Eddie Lacy hurt his ankle in Week 2 and is going through a rough patch early on for the third straight year.

Others have frustrated for various reasons, some of which have nothing to do with them. Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce came into the season with top-three potential at the position, but he’s not involved enough in the offense even though the Chiefs lack talent and depth in the receiving corps.

Patience has brought you to this spot in the season with Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Jordan Matthews still on your team. I’ll tell you why he and others belong in your starting lineups this week and going forward.

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Drew Brees, Mark Ingram, Benjamin Watson Post-Week 6 Fantasy Advice

Fantasy Football
October 15, 2015

The New Orleans Saints saved their season with a 31-21 win over the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday, thanks in large part to strong fantasy performances from their offensive skill players.

The Saints ranked seventh in total offense (387.4 yards per game) entering Week 6 but sit at 2-4 largely because of their lack of scoring. Their 22.3 points per game rank 18th.

The team’s scoring shortfalls have translated over to its distinctive fantasy playmakers—particularly Drew Brees, Mark Ingram and Benjamin Watson.

Brees remains a QB1 commodity but can’t be considered a must-start, as was the case in years past. He has lacked the lights-out numbers owners are accustomed to and missed the Saints’ Week 3 game after suffering a shoulder injury.

His performance against Atlanta—30-of-39 for 312 yards and a touchdown—was impressive but typical. Brees has enjoyed more success against the NFC South rival than any other team in his 16-year career.

Brees has thrown a career-best 6,098 yards and 37 touchdowns with a 67.7 completion percentage in 20 games against the Falcons, with 14 wins.

The Saints play two of the four worst pass defenses, the New York Giants and Indianapolis Colts, in consecutive weeks, leaving Brees’ viability high. But keep an eye out for their Week 9 game against the Tennessee Titans, who have allowed the fewest passing yards to quarterbacks this year.

Running back Mark Ingram churned out just 46 yards against Atlanta but scored a pair of goal-line touchdowns to prove he’s a weekly must-start.

Despite his low yardage output, Ingram had 20 carries, while Khiry Robinson and C.J. Spiller combined for just 10—showing that Ingram is the Saints’ clear No. 1 option.

Ingram entered Week 6 as the 11th-ranked fantasy running back and has posted a reliable 11.6 points per game. However, owners should be wary of a looming matchup against a Giants defense that ranks fourth against the run.

Tight end Benjamin Watson ranked higher than Falcons superstar Julio Jones in almost every receiving category Thursday. He led all pass-catchers with 10 receptions for 127 yards and a touchdown.

Watson is owned in just 3.9 percent of fantasy leagues—but for warranted reason. Entering Week 6, he averaged just 3.2 points per game, had seen just 21 targets and took five weeks to score his first touchdown. Before Thursday, Watson hadn’t eclipsed 100 yards since Week 12 of the 2010 season.

While his performance against the Falcons was formidable, Watson remains a cautious start. Owners who are thin at tight end or looking for a reliable bench option with the array of oncoming bye weeks will find Watson to be useful.

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