Fantasy Football

Fantasy football drafts emulate real life in many ways, though one rule rises above the rest.

It’s a simple one: The middle rounds are where winning teams form.

In real NFL drafts, a lot of hype is made about the first-round picks, but it’s not uncommon to see a high pick bust. Meanwhile, late-round players make up the core of the roster or even become superstars.

The same goes for fantasy drafts. Last year, high picks such as Le’Veon Bell, Jamaal Charles, Julian Edelman, Alshon Jeffery and others put up mediocre seasons for various reasons. In contrast, Doug Baldwin, Eric Decker, Doug Martin and David Johnson posted monster numbers.

The same scenario will unfold this year. To help owners wade through the endless talent in the mid-rounds and unearth guys with high upside, here’s a look at a mid-round draft based on a standard, 12-team league. 

Notable Team Names

Hot Lockett

This team name pulls solid double duty for the fantasy owner who wants to emphasize his feelings about microwavable treats while showing he can find mid-round gems worth drafting. 

Said gem is Seattle Seahawks wideout Tyler Lockett, who burst onto the scene last year as a third-round rookie and caught 51 passes for 664 yards and six scores. For those keeping track, he scored 104 fantasy points, better than notables such as Jeffery and Keenan Allen.

Lockett does have to compete with Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse for attention in the passing game, but with the team now missing Marshawn Lynch, Russell Wilson might put the ball in the air more than ever.

Given these factors, not to mention the natural progression of a player who is going into his second year, Lockett looks like a candidate to come off the board much higher this time next year.

99 Problems But a Fitz Ain’t One

Aside from having a catchy tune run through their head thanks to the above name, fantasy owners can agree Ryan Fitzpatrick has a right to his own set of team names this year. 

The New York Jets quarterback shocked many last year by finishing 12th in scoring at his position. It was a surprising development for a guy who looked like he’d be mired in a run-first offense.

Instead, Fitzpatrick posted 272 points by way of 3,905 passing yards and 31 touchdowns, ranking above Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger.

Owners shouldn’t feel bad about missing out on Fitzpatrick last season. His own teammate, wideout Brandon Marshall, wasn’t expecting much either. NJ.com’s Connor Hughes relayed the funny quote:

What should make owners feel bad, though, is passing on Fitzpatrick again. He’s a good enough reason to skip a quarterback the first few rounds and load up at a different position, especially because he’ll be throwing to Marshall and Decker again.

Dak to the Future

It’s Dak Prescott time in Dallas, which means the fantasy names are here to stay.

According to Clarence Hill of the Star-Telegram, Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett passed along word Tony Romo will miss a serious chunk of time with a back injury to start the season.

For those who are hunting for a bargain at quarterback, if not a breakout star, Prescott might be a name to consider.

At Mississippi State, he completed 66.2 percent of his passes for 3,793 yards and 29 touchdowns with another 588 yards and 10 scores on the ground. His elite production through the air has translated to the pro level thus far, as NFL Network’s James Palmer pointed out:

There’s a big difference between the vanilla ways of the preseason and the regular season, but Prescott has shown encouraging signs this year.

As a stash pickup, he makes plenty of sense. As a trendy way to impress league mates, so does the name. 

All scoring info and statistics courtesy of ESPN.com standard leagues, as are points-against info and ownership stats. Average draft position (ADP) courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator.

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Opinion

There is no foolproof plan to winning a fantasy football championship.

That’s not the best opening sentence for a story on how to draft a winning fantasy football squad, but it’s the truth. Wide receivers are now seen as safer early-round investments, but tell that to everyone who drafted Dez Bryant last year.

Health and other randomness—a kicker getting the yips, a backup running back vulturing your starter’s goal-line touchdown, scoring the week’s second-most points but facing the team with the most—can steamroll a successful season. It’s a cruel game, but the informed are better prepared to sidestep heartbreak.

These guidelines are catered to snake drafters, but many of the principles still apply to auctions. For those who have never done an auction, try one out. It offers distinct challenges and involves more strategy.

It’s impossible to win a league on draft day, but selecting a suboptimal squad will derail any chances of claiming the crown. Here are some guidelines to leaving the draft with a formidable team.

Play to Your League’s Settings

Advice columns paint with a broad stroke to help as many readers as possible. They’re written for the majority who use default rules on a major host site.

Everyone else, of course, must adapt to those settings.

In a league that awards six points for a passing touchdown, taking Drew Brees in the fifth or sixth round suddenly looks savvy. Drafters should desire stability from their top picks, which explains why volatile running backs are falling out of favor.

It doesn’t, however, justify avoiding a star mainstay such as Brees, who has averaged 4,855 yards per season during his decade with the New Orleans Saints. Last year’s 32 passing touchdowns represented his lowest tally since 2007.

As noted by ESPN.com’s Matthew Berry, Brees was the site’s second highest-scoring quarterback behind Cam Newton after returning from an injured rotation cuff in Week 4. Such a bankable star also increases in value when you need to start two quarterbacks.

Researchers should now have little trouble locating analysis geared for point-per-reception (PPR) leagues. The format turns Danny Woodhead, Duke Johnson, Jarvis Landry and Golden Tate into studs rather than matchup plays. Be sure not to follow a host site’s default rankings assembled for standing scoring.

Even minor details such as the number of bench spots matter. If an owner has more reserve slots in his arsenal, he or she should exploit the extra resources with some high-upside fliers. Know the league’s settings like a sibling by draft day.

Zero RB? Maybe One or Two

Remember when it was practically mandatory to take a running back in the first round? Once an unconventional path, the zero RB strategy has invaded the zeitgeist as a mainstream tactic. Among the top 30 ranked players on ESPN.com, 13 are rushers. 

Now that more people are on board with the plan, it might be time to leave the ship. NFL.com’s Michael Fabiano wrote against waiting several rounds before taking a running back:

Let’s be honest. No matter how good your top three wide receivers might look on paper, do you really want to go into the regular season with a backfield that features Jonathan Stewart and Melvin Gordon as your two best options? And if those are your two best options, who’s on your bench …[T.J.] Yeldon? Well, that’s what you’re looking at if you don’t pick your first running back until the fifth or sixth round. With that said, I also believe it’s unwise to go into a season with a weak position and force yourself to lean on the waiver wire to bolster it. While we did see a number of runners come off the wire and produce at a high rate, that had much to do with the abnormally high number of injured starters in 2015.

This was a shrewd philosophy two years ago, when the league began its transition into a pass-first league without the proper fantasy correction. The market has adapted, and drafters are reading a lot into last year’s avalanche of running back injuries.

While backs are more susceptible to missing time, an active star rusher is more reliable than most receivers, who are rarely guaranteed targets. This doesn’t apply to the top-tier wideouts, but a healthy LeSean McCoy is still a safer week-to-week bet than a healthy Mike Evans.

Don’t limit your options by refusing to draft a rusher until the fifth or sixth round. But if the best player available every time happens to play another position, go for it. After all, it’s all about value.

Draft for Value

If you want to make a wise fantasy player laugh, tell him or her about your plans. 

Multiple formulas will yield a winning team, so don’t believe anyone who swears by a specific draft strategy. By committing to zero RB or any other specific idea, a drafter limits his or her options.

Grabbing a tight early may not be the original plan, but that should change if Rob Gronkowski falls into the second round. If not, it makes sense to then wait out tight end. Unless Greg Olsen slips into the sixth round, where he’s a steal.

The only plan anyone should follow is the I Don’t Give a Crap blueprint coined by Grantland’s Jonah Keri. Maybe this road leads to a certain philosophy. See where it takes you.

During the draft, gradually turn best-player-available into team construction. Let’s not get too crazy and take six straight receivers, but don’t settle for an inferior running back in Round 3 solely to quell the anxiety of not yet having one. 

While it’s imperative to stockpile as much rushing and receiver depth as possible, it’s less necessary to back up a dependable quarterback or tight end. Only extreme circumstances (and a bye week) would cause anyone to sit Aaron Rodgers for Andy Dalton, who isn’t significantly better than a free agent like Joe Flacco.

Then again, Tyrod Taylor and Derek Carr could yield a trade return far greater than their initial investment cost if they break out. Don’t cross off all passers because someone said not to bother with two.

Wait on Defense and Kicker

Seriously, it’s 2016. It’s a given to wait until the final two rounds to draft a defense and kicker.

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Fantasy

Running backs no longer dominate the top of draft boards in fantasy football as they did for most of the past decade. That doesn’t mean players at the position won’t have a significant impact on which teams capture championships during the 2016 season.

In fact, the fantasy owners who are best able to find value in the backfield during the middle rounds are going to own a sizable advantage over the competition. That’s because the sheer unpredictably of the position leaves the door open for some major steals.

Let’s check out some useful tools heading into the busiest part of drafting season, including a mock draft of the opening round and some various outlets’ rankings. That’s followed by some tips to help build a successful roster, with an emphasis on the aforementioned running backs.

First-Round Mock Draft

Cheat Sheet Options

Drafting Strategy Tips

Beat The Running Back Wave

As the fantasy outlook changes, pushing more wide receivers into the first round and creating a more balanced draft overall, the way to attack running backs changes. Now the focus becomes beating the run on RBs to prevent getting stuck without any reliable reserves.

It appears that starts around pick No. 75. Nearly half the selections between that spot and pick No. 100 are running backs, according to ESPN’s tracker of average draft position. So in a 12-team league, things start to trend toward bulking up the backfield in Round 6.

In turn, it’s likely wise to grab a rusher in the fifth round, after laying the foundation of your team in the first four. Then, when a majority of the league is grabbing those mid-level backs, flip your attention to grabbing great value at the other positions.

Grabbing a handcuff is one thing that’s generally overrated in fantasy, though. It’s hard to know exactly how the backfield work will be dished out if a starter goes down. Matt Harmon of NFL.com used the Kansas City Chiefs’ situation from last year as a perfect example:

Short-sighted fantasy managers might cite the Chiefs backfield as a situation where handcuffs worked out. However, neither Charcandrick West or Spencer Ware was on the radar at draft time last season. Knile Davis, on the other hand, was a 10th-round pick. That’s a perfect example of the kind of whiff that often comes out of chasing potential handcuffs.

It’s rare for a No. 2 running back to merely step right into the same role the starter filled. The depth chart usually gets shaken up with multiple players helping to fill the void. So don’t pass up good value just to get the backup for your top rusher.

Focus On RB And WR Depth

The most important word in fantasy is value. Star power rarely dictates who wins championships unless one of the first-round studs goes absolutely bonkers during the playoffs, carrying all of his fantasy owners to the title. Instead, it usually comes down to who can find the most reliable contributors.

This year there’s plenty of late value available at both quarterback and tight end. At QB, Matthew Stafford, Andy Dalton, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco can be solid backups. The same can be said for Jason Witten, Charles Clay and Jordan Cameron at TE.

So at those two positions you can identify the sleeper you like most and wait. Things are a lot more volatile at running back and wide receiver. That makes grabbing some extra depth pieces, perhaps better described as lottery tickets, at those spots more important.

Don’t be afraid to take a chance on a player with a defined niche role, either. PFF Fantasy Football noted it’s possible for those type of assets to carry fantasy worth, though it’s a limited group:

Remember, it’s unlikely a backup tight end will make much of an impact and your backup quarterback won’t start much unless your starter gets hurt, which would damage your chances anyway. A successful flier on an extra running back or wideout could pay off big in the long run, though.

Don’t Draft A Kicker Before The Final Round

Although this tip is common sense for most fantasy veterans, it’s still probably the biggest mistake for newer team managers. Too many people still take a kicker in the middle rounds to fill out their starting lineup before drafting a bench. Don’t do that.

The reason is simple: the advantage of owning a top kicker is minimal. The difference between Stephen Gostkowski (the No. 1 kicker) and Mike Nugent (the No. 12 kicker) was less than three points per game, per ESPN. Take out Gostkowski and make it Graham Gano (the No. 2 kicker) and it’s less than two PPG.

Grabbing Gostkowski is fine if it’s the penultimate round and he’s still on the board. But that’s really the only exception to the rule, especially since the scoring is so variable and you’re likely to drop your kicker for a new one when his bye week arrives anyway.

4for4 Football provided further context about the lack of edge gained by trying to chase kicker points:

Another tactic for leagues where there are cheap or free moves is simply changing your kicker on a weekly basis based on matchups. But the bottom line remains the same, don’t waste a valuable pick on the position when there are so many other needs to fill.

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Opinion

A great fantasy football team name and a strong draft make one of the best duos in the sporting world.

Seriously, a quality name and draft is on par with Kobe-Shaq, Michael-Scottie, Peyton-Marvin and on and on. The two go hand-in-hand because one can’t thrive without the other.

Think about it: That owner who has a dynamite team name but won all of two games? Nobody will remember the name. The owner who wins it all with ease but has a boring name? You might as well not even fire up a league.

Let’s help ensure these catastrophes don’t occur. First, here’s a look at a four-round mock draft in a standard 12-team league:

Seasoned owners get the idea already, and those searching for help can see the general writing on the wall.

Skill positions, as usual, rule the world. High-volume wide receivers must come off the board first, and dual-threat running backs who get touches on the ground and through the air take precedence. With an abundance of high-upside options at quarterback, signal-callers fall down the board.

Top Team Names

PokeMoncrief

Fantasy owners better come to terms with the idea that some of the best names this year will center on the hit mobile game Pokemon Go.

PokeMoncrief is one of the best offerings around, alongside gems such as Gotta Catch Jamaal. It draws inspiration from one of the most interesting skill-position players around, too.

Said player is Indianapolis Colts wideout Donte Moncrief. He scored 104 total points last year but continues to fly under the radar. Former Colts star Reggie Wayne offered high praise, per NFL Media:

Owners might want to align themselves with that sort of thinking. It’s important to remember Moncrief slotted behind only T.Y. Hilton in terms of targets on the team last season and even more important to keep in mind that starting quarterback Andrew Luck suited up for only seven games.

Like the breakout game, Moncrief could be one of fantasy football’s biggest breakout players this year.

Hartline Bling

Fantasy owners won’t get too far without a Drake reference this fantasy season. 

Hartline Bling centers on wideout Brian Hartline, who sits on the open market as a free agent after a surprising release by the Cleveland Browns.

Hartline is a name to keep an eye on and add to your roster if he lands in a good situation. When the going is good for the possession receiver, it’s great—hence Hartline turning a pair of seasons with 128-plus targets into 1,000-yard campaigns.

For now, Hartline is out of a job. Savvy fantasy owners, though, will monitor the situation and have him in the back of their minds on draft day. Even if it doesn’t pan out for him on the field, Hartline Bling makes for one great team name this season.

Land of the Freeman

Indeed, it is the Land of the Freeman.

This name has many layers, but from a fantasy football standpoint, it’s all about Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman.

Freeman is one of the must-have players after his monster campaign one year ago. He led all scorers at running back thanks to a versatile skill set few in the league can match, as Pro Football Focus pointed out:

Unlike the other names, though, Freeman did his damage at a workhorse rate. He carried the ball 265 times for 1,056 yards and 11 touchdowns while catching 73 passes for 578 yards and an additional three scores.

As one can glean from the mock draft above, unless a back is named Adrian Peterson, Freeman is the model player owners will want to land high in their drafts. The ability to play an every-down role and contribute by any means equates to a fantasy workhorse.

Based on last season, this team name could again apply to the NFL as a whole if Freeman puts forth another monster showing.

All scoring info and statistics courtesy of ESPN.com standard leagues, as are points-against info and ownership stats. Average draft position (ADP) courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator.

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Opinion