Sweep! 3-0 ATS in Week 3 which improves our YTD to 7-2. Let’s see if we can keep it going with a few potential plays for Week 4. The main strategy I want to implement is fading the public. Books are always looking to exploit public perception so hopefully we can find a few winners by fading the public in a few heavily public-bet games. Obviously, this is written on Tuesday (9/26) so always keep an eye on the changing lines and percentages.
JACKSONVILLE @ NEW YORK JETS
While the Jets quietly beat a bad Dolphins team, the public took notice as Jacksonville dominated Baltimore in London.
It’s always tough to play the next week after being in London and the Jets will be looking to carry the momentum from their first win of the season into this week. Let’s take New York +3.5 (BetOnline)
CAROLINA @ NEW ENGLAND
The Panthers were awful last week against the Saints and the Patriots were able to sneak away with a close win over Houston. As always, New England is a huge public favorite:
While Carolina has been struggling offensively all season, New England has historically had problems with mobile quarterbacks and this could be the game that Cam Newton breaks out. With such one-sided action we are able to get a solid underdog at a great number. Let’s take Carolina +10 (5Dimes)
TENNESSEE @ HOUSTON
We’re going to take a little different strategy with this game. The Titans are coming off a huge win over Seattle while Houston hung tough but came up short against New England. I think there will be some separation in the percentages but as of now the public is relatively split.
I think Houston is the sharp side and catching this line early will allow us to get a few points. The Texans return home after a tough loss while the Titans are in a potential letdown spot. Let’s take Houston +2(Bookmaker)
Like I mentioned, we have a few days until these games take place with lots of wagering in between so keeping an eye on the lines and percentages throughout the week is important. Fading the public is very successful when the public side is 80%+ so keep that in mind as the week progresses and the betting volume grows.
Like all sports investing, this strategy is most effective over the course of an entire season. Use consistent money management and stick to the plan in order to maximize profit. As always, using ZCode’s Line Reversals Tool is a great way to stay on top of all the action.
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