Fantasy football owners heading into Week 13 start ’em, sit ’em decisions can never claim they don’t get enough help.
A decade ago, owners maybe had a few spreadsheets to look at and some guy on television briefly running over a few details, but most weren’t tailored toward standard fantasy leagues—not to mention the variety of league types that have popped up since.
Now owners have almost too much information to work with thanks to experts, social media and much more. Below, let’s cut through the noise to examine some of the industry’s top voices and how they advise approaching what looks like a tricky weekend.
Michael Beller, Sports Illustrated
Notable Start: Kyle Rudolph, TE, Minnesota Vikings (vs. SEA)
It’s panic time at tight end with Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham out of the picture, but Sports Illustrated‘s Michael Beller offers an interesting alternative in Kyle Rudolph of the Minnesota Vikings.
Rudolph might have only one double-digit outing this year, but Beller explained the situation well: “The Seahawks have been gashed by tight ends all season, allowing the second-most points to the position. Rudolph moves into the safe TE1 class and is a great replacement if you lost Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski.”
Rudolph has never been the greatest play around thanks to Adrian Peterson and the emergence of Stefon Diggs, but as Beller hints, the Seahawks cannot stop tight ends.
In fact, Seattle coughs up the fourth-most points to the position this year on average, with six opposing sets of tight ends hitting double digits. Rudolph looks like a safe alternative this week.
Notable Sit: Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers (vs. DEN)
Beller, like many others, seems down on Melvin Gordon of the San Diego Chargers.
The explosive rookie just hasn’t matched fantasy expectations, though, having yet to reach double digits this season—in large part because the team has given him a maximum of 18 carries just once this year.
Gordon had one of his best games as a pro last weekend with 14 carries for 60 yards and eight points, but he still has yet to score a touchdown.
There’s no guarantee San Diego gives the rookie many chances against the Denver Broncos, one of the league’s premier defenses.
Notable Start: Alex Smith, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (at OAK)
It’s not often a fantasy owner sees advice suggesting Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith.
Rotoworld‘s Nick Mensio isn’t afraid to do so, though, as Smith gets what looks like a solid matchup against the Oakland Raiders this week.
Mensio offered some long-term history to back the argument: “In his past three starts against the Raiders, Smith has completed 55-of-86 passes (64 percent) for 818 yards (9.51 YPA) and a 9:0 TD:INT ratio.”
Smith has double digits in every game except one this year to showcase a decent floor, but he’s gone above 20 points just three times. Mensio might be on to something here, though, as Oakland allows the sixth-most points to the position, with two or more passing scores allowed in eight games.
Even if Smith didn’t have a strong history against the Raiders, this looks like a strong matchup. Mensio just added the proverbial icing on the cake.
Notable Sit: Brandin Cooks, WR, New Orleans Saints (vs. CAR)
New Orleans Saints wideout Brandin Cooks is one of the better explosive players to own on a week-to-week basis because of his ability to break out.
Starting in Week 8, he rattled off three games in the double digits, two of those at 20 or more points. The problem is when Cooks falls way out of relevancy, such as right after this past weekend with just three points.
For Mensio, this week against the Carolina Panthers looks like one of those disappearing acts:
With Cooks establishing himself as the Saints’ No. 1 receiver, he could see shadow coverage from Panthers shutdown CB Josh Norman, who’s Pro Football Focus’ No. 1 cover corner. In the Week 3 tilt, Norman was in coverage on three of Cooks’ eight targets, allowing two catches for 23 yards. The only way Cooks may avoid Norman is if No. 2 CB Charles Tillman returns and the Panthers play sides, or Cooks moves into the slot more, since Norman rarely travels to cover inside.
The matchup’s too terrible for owners to ignore. Carolina allows the seventh-fewest points to the position thanks in large part to the efforts of Josh Norman. New Orleans doesn’t have another credible threat he’d have to account for, so expect the matchup to go down.
For at least another week, it seems Cooks needs to ride the pine.
Jamey Eisenberg, CBSSports.com
Notable Start: Javorius Allen, RB, Baltimore Ravens (at MIA)
Owners might not love the idea of Baltimore Ravens running back Javorius Allen, who in two games as starter has totaled 23 points.
But CBSSports.com’s Jamey Eisenberg chooses to take the good with the bad when it comes to Justin Forsett’s replacement:
The positives were he scored his first NFL touchdown and finished with 12 carries for 55 yards and four catches for 29 yards. He led the team in rushing and was second in receptions, but he also lost seven carries for Terrance West, which we hope isn’t a sign of things to come. I expect Allen to again get the majority of touches in Week 13 at Miami, and hopefully by a wider margin over West.
Maybe Eisenberg is on to something here, as the Miami Dolphins surrender the third-most points to running backs this year, with 17 or more points allowed to opposing backfields in each of their past six outings.
Considering Allen is the entire Baltimore offense on his own, maybe that’s not such an unrealistic goal.
Notable Sit: DeMarco Murray, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (at NE)
It’s been a roller coaster with DeMarco Murray of the Philadelphia Eagles this year.
Starting in Week 9, he rattled off outings of 21 and 11 points, then over his last two has nine total points while his team got whipped in 45-17 and 45-14 fashion.
For Eisenberg, a sudden lack of production, especially through the air, doesn’t mesh well with the team’s recent performances:
But he’s gone three games in a row without a touchdown, and his past two games were disastrous with nine combined Fantasy points against the Buccaneers and Lions, including no catches in Week 12 for the first time all year. New England has allowed three running backs to score double digits in Fantasy points in the past two games, but it’s tough to run on the Patriots at home – and tough to rely on any Eagles right now.
New England might have let up three scores to running backs last week, but call it an anomaly considering the total before the outburst was just four.
Murray’s been unreliable all season. Given his team’s struggles to produce against bad teams, it’s hard to imagine he’ll see any form of significant opportunities in Foxborough against a Tom Brady-led offense.
All scoring info courtesy of ESPN standard leagues, as is points-against info and ownership stats as of Dec. 5.
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