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? NFL Picks: Week 17

Betting on Football
December 30, 2017

Green Bay Packers versus Detroit Lions

The Packers head into the season finale at 7-8, while the Lions are 8-7. Neither Detroit won the first meeting between the teams this season as a road favorite on November 6. They hold the edge on the Power Ranking Indicator, +19 to +15. They also are “burning hot” on the Team Strength Oscillator versus “average down” for the Packers. Both teams are in the top 10 in Team Volatility, and as a 7.5 point favorite, bodes well for the Lions. The Lions will win the last game of the season to secure a winning record.

Chicago Bears versus Minnesota Vikings

Everything is pointing towards an easy win for the Vikings. They are “burning hot” on the Team Strength Oscillator, while the Bears are -11.8 and “dead”. Minnesota has a huge +30 to +5 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator and won the first game as a road favorite of October 9. A huge 11.5 point favorite, the Vikings will win and likely cover the spread.

Washington Redskins versus New York Giants

At the beginning of the season, many likely saw this game having playoff implications, but both teams just want to finish strong. At 7-8, the Redskins are a 3.5 road favorite and won the last meeting as home favorite on November 25. While neither team is impressive on the oscillators, the Redskins have a +12 to +1 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator. Washington can go to .500 with a win, and likely will take this one as the Giants can’t start the off season soon enough.

Carolina Panthers versus Atlanta Falcons

A game with huge playoff implications, the Falcons need a win the secure the final NFC playoff spot. They are a 3.5 point favorite at home. Carolina holds slight edges in both the Power Ranking Indicator and Team Strength Oscillator and also won the first meeting as a home underdog on November 5. Both teams have something to play for, but Atlanta will be in desperation mode at home and will win in a tight game decided late.

Arizona Cardinals versus Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks need a win and a loss by Atlanta to secure a playoff berth. An 8 point home favorite, Seattle won the first meeting as a road underdog on November 9. Both teams are on a downward trend with the Cardinals at “ice cold down” and Seattle as “average down”. Seattle holds an edge on the Power Ranking Indicator and with the season on the line, will hold off the Cardinals, although might not cover.

Cincinnati Bengals versus Baltimore Ravens

The Bengals enter at 6-9 and try to spoil the playoff hopes of the 9-6 Ravens. Baltimore enters as a 9.5 point favorite and won the first meeting as a road underdog in September. The Ravens are +16 and climbing on the Power Ranking Indicator and “average up” on the Team Strength Oscillator. Cincinnati is “ice cold down” and +6. While the Bengals could maintain enthusiasm throughout if the game is close, they will be ready for the off season should Baltimore pull away. Look for the Ravens to win rather easily, earning their 10th victory.

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NFL Week 1 Picks and Predictions $$$

Betting on Football
September 6, 2017

The first week of the NFL season is always the most difficult to predict, as little is seen of starting teams during the preseason. There are methods to use, however, including point spreads, overall team trends, head-to-head match up, previous season’s performance and so on. Utilizing the Power Ranking Indicator, Team Strength Oscillator, Head-to-Head records from last season, among others, here is my breakdown for six games this week.

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

Jacksonville finished 3-13 last season, while Houston finished on top of the division at 9-7. The Texans come in as a 5.5 point favorite and won both meetings between the teams last season. Houston holds the advantage in terms of Power Ranking Indicator at +19 and climbing to +10. Similarly there is a wide margin in terms of NFL Team Strength Oscillator with this Texas at +8.44 compared to the Jaguars at a woeful -16.28. Everything in the tools points towards a decisive victory for the Texans in this one.

Philadelphia Eagles versus Washington Redskins

In a battle in what is likely to be a tight NFC East, the Eagles come in as a slim one point favorite. Interestingly enough, the Redskins took both meetings last season, as a favorite at home and as the underdog in Philadelphia. The Power Ranking Indicator gives a wide advantage to the Eagles at +25 and rapidly rising, while the Redskins are at +4. This is likely because the Eagles have added weapons in the off season and the high expectations of quarterback Carson Wentz. The NFL Team Strength Oscillator shows the Redskins with a slight overall advantage at +4.82 to +1.09. Currently the Eagles appear to be the stronger team, however, and I see the Eagles edging the Redskins by at most a field goal.

Indianapolis Colts versus Los Angeles Rams

The Colts were 8-8 last season, while the Rams were a dismal 4-12. The two teams haven’t met since preseason in 2015, so head-to-head results don’t come into play. Interestingly the Rams are a 3.5 point favorite and hold a slim +16 to +15 advantage in the Power Ranking Indicator. Looking more closely, though, the Rams are on the decline in that Indicator, while the Colts are rapidly rising. The trend continues with the NFL Team Strength Oscillator with the Colts holding a +4.22 to -4.37 advantage with the gap increasing. Even without quarterback Andrew Luck, take the Colts in this one, despite the underdog status.

Seattle Seahawks versus Green Bay Packers

This is one of the best match ups of the week with the Packers coming in as 3.5 point home favorites. Last season, the Packers won as a home underdog and the teams finished with nearly identical records, at 10-5-1 for the Seahawks and 10-6 for the Packers. Seattle holds a slight edge in the Team Strength Oscillator, but a most decided edge of +28 to +22 in the Power Ranking Indicator. What makes this a tough pick is the Seahawks were a mediocre 3-4-1 on the road, while the Packers were 6-2 at home. It’s difficult to pick against Aaron Rodgers at home, so I hesitantly pick the Packers to open up at 1-0.

New Orleans Saints versus Minnesota Vikings

The last meeting between these two teams was September 2014 where the Saints won as the favorite. However, this plays little in determining the pick between two teams that were nearly even in win-loss record last season. The Vikings hold the clear advantage in both the Power Ranking Indicator (+20 to +2) and Team Strength Oscillator (+3.98 to -5.13). They are also 3.5 point favorites at home. While tempted to pick Drew Brees and the Saints, all signs point towards the Vikings in the opening.

Los Angeles Chargers versus Denver Broncos

The Chargers finished 5-11 last season compared to 9-7 for the Broncos, however the teams finished 1-1 head-to-head. Denver won as the favorite and the Chargers won at home at the underdog. The Chargers are at +23 according to the Power Ranking Indicator, which is strong for a team that finished last a season ago. However, the Broncos are quite stronger at +31 and also hold a nearly 27 point advantage and increasing according to the Team Strength Oscillator. It would be a great story for the Chargers to win their first regular season game as the Los Angeles Chargers, but that’s unlikely. I pick the Broncos by a wide margin in this one.

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