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NFC South

2017-2018 NFC South Prop Betting Guide ?

Betting on Football
August 25, 2017

The first week of NFL preseason is in the books and opening weekend (September 7th) is right around the corner. With a few key injuries and suspensions already making headlines, now is the time to start digging deeper into expectations for each team. Today we will take a look at the NFC South.

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ATLANTA FALCONS
Last season: 11-5
BetOnline O/U wins: 9.5

After a crushing loss in the Super Bowl, it’s easy to forget the Falcons had one of their best seasons ever in franchise history. The Falcons won the division for the first time since 2012, reached their 2nd Super Bowl and Matt Ryan won the league’s MVP.

Ryan is back to lead a potent offensive attack once again. Scoring points won’t be a problem but it will be very tough to match last season’s numbers. Besides missing offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, the entire offensive line played every game last season. That is not likely to happen again.

Defensively, Atlanta was not very good but made small off season improvements and should be marginally better. Given this year’s schedule and the injury luck they had last season, I think there is value to be had taking the under 9.5 wins.

CAROLINA PANTHERS
Last season: 6-10
BetOnline O/U wins: 9

Injuries and a bad start led to a disastrous 2016 season for the Panthers, becoming the first Super Bowl runner up to miss the playoffs the next season since 2008. But a healthy Cam Newton and the addition of a few new weapons should make for a quick turnaround.

Newton had off season shoulder surgery which should get him back to his old self. And the additions of running back Christian McCaffrey and Matt Kalil on the offensive line, the Panthers should be able to score some points.

On defense, a healthy Luke Kuechly should keep the Panthers defense among the best in the league. A well rounded Carolina team should be right in the hunt for the division title along with Atlanta. But given the wins total is set at 9, I think this is a wins total we can pass on.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Last season: 7-9
BetOnline O/U wins: 8

Same old problems for the Saints. The offense can put up points in a hurry but the defense can’t stop anyone. New Orleans was first in the league in yards per game and second in scoring with 29.3 points per game. With Drew Brees running the show and the addition of Adrian Peterson, the offense shouldn’t miss a beat.

Unfortunately for the Saints, the defense allowed 273.8 yards passing per game, the most in the NFL. While New Orleans has used most of the draft picks on the defensive side of the ball, it might take some time before things get fixed.

The team wins opened at 8.5 but has since dropped to 8. If you can find 8.5 anywhere, I think taking the under has value but otherwise laying off a play at 8 wins.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Last season: 9-7
BetOnline O/U wins: 8.5

For the 9th straight year, the Bucs missed the playoffs. But expectations are high in Tampa. While injuries hurt the offense last year, Jameis Winston showed flashes of being a top tier QB. With the additions of DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard, the offense has potential to be one of the league’s best.

Defensively, Gerald McCoy leads a feisty unit that is capable of making plays. The Bucs need young players like Kwon Alexander to step up in order to break through.

With the buzz of being profiled on HBO’s Hard Knocks and a talented young QB in Winston, the hype-train is in full effect. The wins total opened at 7.5 and has moved to 8.5. This feels like the books taking advantage of the public and laying a trap. Taking under 8.5 wins has value and is a solid play.

As always, make sure to check out the Line Reversals tool for all the NFL preseason and regular season games at http://www.nerdyfootball.com/betting/

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