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Fantasy Football Week 4 Start 'Em or Sit 'Em Breakdown

Fantasy Football
October 1, 2015

Week 4 of the NFL season is right around the corner, and we at Nerdy Football are here to tell you whom to start and whom to sit this weekend.

Which offensive line is detrimental to its quarterback’s fantasy output? Which running back should you not only sit, but remove from your roster altogether?

Watch as Stephen Nelson and Nerdy Football Fantasy Football Expert Matt Camp analyze various options for your fantasy team this weekend in the video above.

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Daily Fantasy Football: Ultimate DraftKings DFS Strategies for Week 4

Fantasy Football
October 1, 2015

With Week 4 of fantasy football on everyone’s mind, it’s time to take a look at this week’s possible strategies.

Who are some studs you should actually avoid? Where are some good places to save with a good value?

Find out in the above video as Stephen Nelson and Nerdy Football fantasy football analyst Matt Camp go in-depth on what they think are some good strategies to follow.

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Daily Fantasy Football Week 4: Best DraftKings Values, Last-Minute Picks

Fantasy Football
October 1, 2015

If DraftKings players could select Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator Todd Haley for their lineup, it would be a fruitful selection. Haley can’t accumulate any stats, but his ability to create a sound offensive game plan will produce the highest-value player in this week’s NFL contest.

That’s right, you guessed it. I’m endorsing Michael Vick ($5,000) as the go-to guy at quarterback this week in DK contests. His salary is very affordable, and Vick not only has the weapons around him to shine, but he also has a man in Haley in charge who can create a scheme that allows the veteran to be productive.

Per ESPN.com, Haley came away impressed with Vick’s work ethic and knowledge of the playbook in a cram session to prepare for Thursday night’s game. Haley said this on Tuesday:

“He only got the initial game plan last night, and you could tell he had put a lot of time into memorizing the calls on the sheet. I gave him a play, he spits it out quickly.”

With Antonio Brown ($9,200), the game’s best route-runner, the speedy Darrius Heyward-Bey and all-purpose running back Le’Veon Bell at his side, Vick will have a plethora of options. We may not realize it, but the Steelers’ current lineup is arguably the most complete set of weapons he’s ever had around him.

We also must consider Thursday night’s opposition as well. The Baltimore Ravens are 29th in passing yards allowed this season. Vick will have every opportunity to shine in a QB-friendly system. Here’s the rest of my suggested lineup for Week 4:

Keenan Allen ($7,000)

The San Diego Chargers’ Philip Rivers may actually have a better game statistically than Vick, but his salary is just $2,000 higher, which means you wouldn’t have room to draft guys such as Brown or Rivers’ top target, Keenan Allen.

The 23-year-old receiver has been up and down this season, but in Week 3, he was definitely flying high. He was targeted 18 times and made 12 receptions for 133 yards and two touchdowns. The Chargers play a Cleveland Browns defense that has been decent against the pass this season (14th in the NFL), but they’re not impervious to the Rivers-Allen duo when they are clicking.

Expect Rivers to look Allen’s way often as he attempts to keep him on track and away from the area of ineffectiveness he drifted into during Week 2 when he had just two receptions.

Lance Dunbar ($3,600)

The Dallas Cowboys will look to make life as simple as possible for backup QB Brandon Weeden. In the Week 3 loss to the Atlanta Falcons, Weeden found Lance Dunbar 10 times out of the backfield. Dunbar’s 100 receiving yards were a mild surprise and probably won’t be duplicated.

That said, you can bet he will continue to be used as a weapon in the passing game. He’s already caught 21 passes this year and is on pace to have 100 receptions and 1,000 yards receiving.

With the Cowboys headed into a battle with the New Orleans Saints, Dunbar is a smart play. The Saints defense is ranked 29th overall in the league through three weeks. There’s no reason to believe they’ll stiffen up against the Cowboys—or that Weeden will stop throwing the dink-and-dunk passes that have led to his 84.6 percent completion rate.

Dunbar will continue to be a beneficiary of the Dallas’ conservative game plan.

Denver Defense ($3,300)

The Denver Broncos will make Teddy Bridgewater beat them. The second-year QB will try, but he’ll turn the ball over multiple times in the process. After all, the team has the second most takeaways in the NFL this season with 10.

Adrian Peterson represents the best running back the Broncos will have faced this season, but the Orange Crush defense has been deft against the run. They’ve allowed just 248 rushing yards through three games and a total of 777 overall.

It takes a mature and savvy quarterback to handle a veteran and aggressive defense like Denver’s, and Bridgewater just isn’t that guy yet. Denver’s defense will score big for DK players with sacks, interceptions and perhaps a score.


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Week 4 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Advice on Fantasy Football Stars to Play or Bench

Fantasy Football
October 1, 2015

Say goodbye to Rob Gronkowski and others as bye weeks around the NFL begin.

Of course, this shouldn’t worry owners too much heading into Week 4 start ’em, sit ’em decisions. The start to this season has felt wilder than usual, with all sorts of productive players popping up out of nowhere to save lineups.

Stars like Gronk will still provide the backbone of lineups, though. To put owners in a better situation heading into Week 4, let’s take a moment to break down some of the week’s interesting value comparisons and take a closer look at some stars to play and bench.

QB

Star to Know: Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers (at TB)

Cam Newton is the league’s MVP. Almost has to be.

Newton has the Carolina Panthers at 3-0 and has taken fantasy owners along for the ride, despite the fact that his starting wideouts are Ted Ginn and Corey Brown. Week 1 was a dud from a fantasy standpoint, but he’s followed with 26 and 29 points.

Another epic performance seems to be in the cards. Newton travels to Tampa Bay to next encounter a Buccaneers defense that surrendered 24 points and four passing touchdowns to Tennessee Titans rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota in Week 1.

Through a combination of passing and rushing, Newton looks like a lock to break the 25-point barrier against the struggling unit.

Star to Bench: Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (at SEA)

Matthew Stafford’s ownership percentage has dipped below 70 percent for good reason.

The Detroit Lions signal-caller has totaled just 41 points in three contests, dealing with a nagging injury and five interceptions in the process. His offensive line isn’t protecting him well, and he’s hardly getting Calvin Johnson involved because he isn’t stretching the field deep anymore.

All the above sounds terrible ahead of an encounter with the Seattle Seahawks defense. The Seahawks allowed Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers to post 21 points, sure, but the unit’s two other opponents combined for 21 over two games.

Until the offensive line and Stafford figure things out, he needs to sit on the bench.

RB

Star to Know: Melvin Gordon, San Diego Chargers (vs. CLE)

It’s a matter of time before an efficient young back seeing plenty of opportunities explodes.

Meaning, it’s a matter of time before San Diego Chargers rookie Melvin Gordon posts a monster game.

Gordon has received at least 14 carries per game so far. He’s yet to reach the end zone or post eye-popping fantasy numbers, but owners seem encouraged based on his 96.7 ownership percentage.

They should be—the visiting Cleveland Browns have already surrendered 487 total yards to running backs, three rushing scores and outings of 27 and 28 points.

Seeing the consistency of chances and the opponent, owners shouldn’t hesitate.

Star to Bench: Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins (vs. NYJ)

To Lamar Miller’s 95.9 percent of owners: It’s impossible to explain what the Miami Dolphins are doing with their lead back.

Miller has 30 carries on the season through three games. He’s eclipsed 50 yards once, hasn’t scored and his highest point total comes in at a whopping seven. Given epic past fantasy performances, there’s no good explanation for the usage other than a new offensive coordinator ignoring the run.

Last week, recently promoted Jonas Gray saw nine carries to Miller’s seven. This week, Miller and his diminishing usage travel to London for an encounter against the New York Jets, a defense that has allowed just one double-digit outing to a backfield so far.

Until the coaching staff decides to use the team’s most talented runner, Miller must sit on benches in every fantasy league.

WR

Star to Know: Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders (at CHI)

There’s no question rookie Amari Cooper of the Oakland Raiders is already one of fantasy’s premier stars.

A Heisman Trophy finalist one year ago, Cooper beat up on Patrick Peterson in the preseason and last week bullied Joe Haden on his way to eight catches for 134 yards and 11 points. The Alabama product has two double-digit outings already, and it would probably be three if quarterback Derek Carr hadn’t left the team’s first game with an injury.

Cooper has caught at least five passes in every contest so far heading into a date with the Chicago Bears. The defendants of Soldier Field seem to have already given up on the season—and defending wideouts long before that considering the unit has allowances of 31, 39 and 18 points to wideout cores.

In other words, Cooper might post his best outing of his young career Sunday. No reason to doubt the rookie now.

Star to Bench: Andre Johnson, Indianapolis Colts (vs. JAC)

A new star receiver enters the stage, another exits.

In theory, Andre Johnson was in for an epic fantasy season after joining Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts this offseason.

Instead, his ownership percentage has dipped by 13.7 points in the last week alone for good reason.

There’s no need to get cute with Johnson now. He has four points in three games on seven catches. He’s taken a backseat to both T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief while the offense struggles to get anything going.

A matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars seems incredible provided the defense has already allowed a minimum of 22 points to receivers in two games. But Johnson is the third weapon on the passing attack at best, and the Colts might score a few times and then ride Frank Gore to a victory, not continue taking to the air.

Johnson shouldn’t keep posting this miserable clip all season, but there’s no reason to throw him into a good matchup until he can prove himself reliable in a new locale.

TE

Star to Know: Charles Clay, Buffalo Bills (vs. NYG)

Charles Clay hasn’t been the most reliable tight end this season, but it’s not saying much at such an erratic position.

Besides, what’s wrong with a bit of unstable play from a tight end when his upcoming matchup is so reliable?

Clay had a breakout game last weekend with five catches for 82 yards and a score for 14 points, his first trip to double digits on the season. What should entice owners (who have boosted Clay’s ownership by 35.4 percent this week with Gronk out) is a matchup with the New York Giants, a team that has allowed four tight ends to score at least six points already.

New York’s defense doesn’t seem to realize tight ends take the field, which means Clay should make it three straight games reaching paydirt.

Star to Bench: Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings (at DEN)

Kyle Rudolph of the Minnesota Vikings remains one of the most physically gifted tight ends in the league, but he’s yet to find stable footing this year in the offense.

While Rudolph has five catches in two of his three outings this year, he has just one score and 15 total points to show for the effort. Minnesota focuses on Adrian Peterson in the backfield, especially considering Rudolph’s team-high target mark hasn’t translated to much yet.

Opportunities most of the time equal production, but not for Rudolph on a trip to Denver. The Broncos have kept any and all comers in check, including holding the position’s second-highest scorer, Travis Kelce, to four catches for 58 yards.

Minnesota will want to play a ball-control offense with AP to keep Peyton Manning off the field, meaning Rudolph looks poised for another quiet outing. Owners don’t get points for his blocking in the running game well.

All scoring info courtesy of ESPN standard leagues, as is points-against info and ownership stats as of October 1. Statistics courtesy of ESPN. Tennessee, New England on bye.

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Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 4: Fantasy Lineup Advice Before Thursday Night Football

Fantasy Football
October 1, 2015

Through three weeks, fantasy football start ’em, sit ’em decisions have been as unpredictable as the Oakland Raiders’ 2-1 start to the season.

Things figure to even out soon, but Week 4 presents some interesting challenges with big names such as Rob Gronkowski on bye and a Thursday Night Football showdown between the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers featuring a quarterback duel between Joe Flacco and Michael Vick.

It seems there is at least one more odd week on the horizon, but it’s not an environment in which fantasy owners can’t find success. In fact, this week could prove quite lucrative for owners who know where to look.

QB

Start: Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (vs. DET)

Russell Wilson has been one of fantasy’s bigger disappointments so far with his high point coming in Week 2 with 21 points. A great matchup last week saw him on autopilot en route to just 15 points.

While not horrible numbers, it’s probably not what owners expected given where they drafted the Seattle Seahawks’ superstar.

Things figure to get better this week with Detroit in town, though. It should be a competitive matchup, which means more relevant fantasy numbers for the versatile back. It helps that the Lions have surrendered five passing scores and a minimum of 18 points per game to quarterbacks so far.

Sit: Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins (vs. NYJ)

With Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler and Drew Brees facing varying degrees of injuries, owners need someone to turn to at quarterback for at least a week.

It just shouldn’t be Ryan Tannehill of the Miami Dolphins.

Touting an ownership percentage of 82.3 and grand expectations before the season thanks to a loaded offense (on paper), Tannehill has surpassed 20 points in a game just once and needed an encounter with the Jacksonville Jaguars to do so.

Next up is the New York Jets, the team surrendering the second-fewest points on average to quarterbacks without a single one breaking into double digits yet.

RB

Start: Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings (at DEN)

Normally this is a “no kidding” sort of ordeal, but owners might have some pause with Adrian Peterson this weekend as he heads to Denver for an encounter with one of the league’s best defenses.

After all, Denver sits undefeated and has allowed more than 20 points in a game just once.

Reading between the lines, though, the Broncos have allowed the last two opposing backfields to total at least 20 points and in the same span allowed three rushing scores.

As for Peterson, he’s scored 16 and 24 points in his last two games after an odd Week 1 usage rate of just 10 carries. Minnesota might be playing from behind this weekend, but Peterson will still get around 20 touches.

Sit: DeMarco Murray, Philadelphia Eagles (at WAS)

Clearly fantasy owners are still all-in around the idea of DeMarco Murray with the Philadelphia Eagles, hence his ownership percentage of 99.4.

Most who drafted him high don’t have a choice, of course. Still, Murray burned owners as a late scratch last weekend with a hamstring issue, meaning he continues to have just 11 rushing yards to his name over the course of two games.

Healthy or not, owners will want to sit Murray this weekend against Washington, even if it means playing a waiver add. Murray’s backup, Ryan Mathews, rushed 25 times for 108 yards last week and Washington ranks second-best against backs, having allowed just one touchdown and 26 points total to three backfields.

It’s never easy to sit a guy like Murray, but the perfect storm has ruined the opening quarter of his season.

WR

Start: Keenan Allen, San Diego Chargers (vs. CLE)

There might not be a bigger under-the-radar superstar in the league than Keenan Allen.

Sure, Allen scored in the negatives during a rough Week 2 outing in Cincinnati, but he has a minimum of 12 catches and 16 points in his other two showings to date. As Ricky Henne of Chargers.com revealed, Allen is on a historic pace:

At this rate, the Cleveland Browns might be on pace to make history, too.

Cleveland just can’t stop wideouts. Over three contests the unit has allowed 26, 22 and 31 points along with five touchdowns. It doesn’t matter if the defense knows Philip Rivers wants to spam the ball to Allen all day long—the Browns won’t be able to stop it.

Sit: DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans (at ATL)

Look, it’s never easy to sit a No. 1 wideout such as DeAndre Hopkins of the Houston Texans, either.

Still, Hopkins’ erratic play this year shows owners should consider him a matchup-based play. He scored 23 in Week 1 and 16 in Week 3, but sandwiched between those performances was a five-point outing against Carolina.

Those Panthers rank sixth against wideouts this year on average. Three spots better rest the Atlanta Falcons, Hopkins’ next opponent. They have allowed just one touchdown to wideouts in three games and more than 20 points just once.

Hopkins looks like a target sponge this year, but it won’t always translate to passable outings.

TE

Start: Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys (at NO)

It doesn’t matter who lines up under center for the Dallas Cowboys this weekend—Jason Witten looks poised for a major day.

Witten hasn’t managed a double-digit outing since the first week of the season, but the guy battled through two sprained ankles and a sprained knee last week on the way to six catches for 65 yards and six points.

He figures to be healthier this week, and just in time, too, considering the New Orleans Saints surrender the second-most points on average to the position.

To date, the Saints have allowed three scores to tight ends and 14- and 26-point outings. Witten will hit double digits for the second time on the season.

Sit: Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. BAL)

It’s been a rough season for Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Heath Miller to date.

Things won’t get better for Miller and his owners Thursday with Vick under center and leading the offense. The Baltimore defense has had its struggles this year, but not against tight ends—the Ravens lead the league against tight ends on average, having allowed just a single point.

In theory, Miller will see plenty of targets with a backup QB needing a safety blanket. But Baltimore silenced Denver’s tight ends in Week 1 and kept Cincinnati’s Tyler Eifert in check last weekend.

Miller’s usefulness as a fantasy stud isn’t dead by any means. Now isn’t the week to feel confident in his outlook, though.

All scoring info courtesy of ESPN standard leagues, as is points-against info and ownership stats as of October 1. Statistics courtesy of ESPN. Tennessee, New England on bye.

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