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NFL Week 1 Picks and Predictions $$$

Betting on Football
September 6, 2017

The first week of the NFL season is always the most difficult to predict, as little is seen of starting teams during the preseason. There are methods to use, however, including point spreads, overall team trends, head-to-head match up, previous season’s performance and so on. Utilizing the Power Ranking Indicator, Team Strength Oscillator, Head-to-Head records from last season, among others, here is my breakdown for six games this week.

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

Jacksonville finished 3-13 last season, while Houston finished on top of the division at 9-7. The Texans come in as a 5.5 point favorite and won both meetings between the teams last season. Houston holds the advantage in terms of Power Ranking Indicator at +19 and climbing to +10. Similarly there is a wide margin in terms of NFL Team Strength Oscillator with this Texas at +8.44 compared to the Jaguars at a woeful -16.28. Everything in the tools points towards a decisive victory for the Texans in this one.

Philadelphia Eagles versus Washington Redskins

In a battle in what is likely to be a tight NFC East, the Eagles come in as a slim one point favorite. Interestingly enough, the Redskins took both meetings last season, as a favorite at home and as the underdog in Philadelphia. The Power Ranking Indicator gives a wide advantage to the Eagles at +25 and rapidly rising, while the Redskins are at +4. This is likely because the Eagles have added weapons in the off season and the high expectations of quarterback Carson Wentz. The NFL Team Strength Oscillator shows the Redskins with a slight overall advantage at +4.82 to +1.09. Currently the Eagles appear to be the stronger team, however, and I see the Eagles edging the Redskins by at most a field goal.

Indianapolis Colts versus Los Angeles Rams

The Colts were 8-8 last season, while the Rams were a dismal 4-12. The two teams haven’t met since preseason in 2015, so head-to-head results don’t come into play. Interestingly the Rams are a 3.5 point favorite and hold a slim +16 to +15 advantage in the Power Ranking Indicator. Looking more closely, though, the Rams are on the decline in that Indicator, while the Colts are rapidly rising. The trend continues with the NFL Team Strength Oscillator with the Colts holding a +4.22 to -4.37 advantage with the gap increasing. Even without quarterback Andrew Luck, take the Colts in this one, despite the underdog status.

Seattle Seahawks versus Green Bay Packers

This is one of the best match ups of the week with the Packers coming in as 3.5 point home favorites. Last season, the Packers won as a home underdog and the teams finished with nearly identical records, at 10-5-1 for the Seahawks and 10-6 for the Packers. Seattle holds a slight edge in the Team Strength Oscillator, but a most decided edge of +28 to +22 in the Power Ranking Indicator. What makes this a tough pick is the Seahawks were a mediocre 3-4-1 on the road, while the Packers were 6-2 at home. It’s difficult to pick against Aaron Rodgers at home, so I hesitantly pick the Packers to open up at 1-0.

New Orleans Saints versus Minnesota Vikings

The last meeting between these two teams was September 2014 where the Saints won as the favorite. However, this plays little in determining the pick between two teams that were nearly even in win-loss record last season. The Vikings hold the clear advantage in both the Power Ranking Indicator (+20 to +2) and Team Strength Oscillator (+3.98 to -5.13). They are also 3.5 point favorites at home. While tempted to pick Drew Brees and the Saints, all signs point towards the Vikings in the opening.

Los Angeles Chargers versus Denver Broncos

The Chargers finished 5-11 last season compared to 9-7 for the Broncos, however the teams finished 1-1 head-to-head. Denver won as the favorite and the Chargers won at home at the underdog. The Chargers are at +23 according to the Power Ranking Indicator, which is strong for a team that finished last a season ago. However, the Broncos are quite stronger at +31 and also hold a nearly 27 point advantage and increasing according to the Team Strength Oscillator. It would be a great story for the Chargers to win their first regular season game as the Los Angeles Chargers, but that’s unlikely. I pick the Broncos by a wide margin in this one.

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2017-2018 NFC South Prop Betting Guide ?

Betting on Football
August 25, 2017

The first week of NFL preseason is in the books and opening weekend (September 7th) is right around the corner. With a few key injuries and suspensions already making headlines, now is the time to start digging deeper into expectations for each team. Today we will take a look at the NFC South.

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Last season: 11-5
BetOnline O/U wins: 9.5

After a crushing loss in the Super Bowl, it’s easy to forget the Falcons had one of their best seasons ever in franchise history. The Falcons won the division for the first time since 2012, reached their 2nd Super Bowl and Matt Ryan won the league’s MVP.

Ryan is back to lead a potent offensive attack once again. Scoring points won’t be a problem but it will be very tough to match last season’s numbers. Besides missing offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, the entire offensive line played every game last season. That is not likely to happen again.

Defensively, Atlanta was not very good but made small off season improvements and should be marginally better. Given this year’s schedule and the injury luck they had last season, I think there is value to be had taking the under 9.5 wins.

Last season: 6-10
BetOnline O/U wins: 9

Injuries and a bad start led to a disastrous 2016 season for the Panthers, becoming the first Super Bowl runner up to miss the playoffs the next season since 2008. But a healthy Cam Newton and the addition of a few new weapons should make for a quick turnaround.

Newton had off season shoulder surgery which should get him back to his old self. And the additions of running back Christian McCaffrey and Matt Kalil on the offensive line, the Panthers should be able to score some points.

On defense, a healthy Luke Kuechly should keep the Panthers defense among the best in the league. A well rounded Carolina team should be right in the hunt for the division title along with Atlanta. But given the wins total is set at 9, I think this is a wins total we can pass on.

Last season: 7-9
BetOnline O/U wins: 8

Same old problems for the Saints. The offense can put up points in a hurry but the defense can’t stop anyone. New Orleans was first in the league in yards per game and second in scoring with 29.3 points per game. With Drew Brees running the show and the addition of Adrian Peterson, the offense shouldn’t miss a beat.

Unfortunately for the Saints, the defense allowed 273.8 yards passing per game, the most in the NFL. While New Orleans has used most of the draft picks on the defensive side of the ball, it might take some time before things get fixed.

The team wins opened at 8.5 but has since dropped to 8. If you can find 8.5 anywhere, I think taking the under has value but otherwise laying off a play at 8 wins.

Last season: 9-7
BetOnline O/U wins: 8.5

For the 9th straight year, the Bucs missed the playoffs. But expectations are high in Tampa. While injuries hurt the offense last year, Jameis Winston showed flashes of being a top tier QB. With the additions of DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard, the offense has potential to be one of the league’s best.

Defensively, Gerald McCoy leads a feisty unit that is capable of making plays. The Bucs need young players like Kwon Alexander to step up in order to break through.

With the buzz of being profiled on HBO’s Hard Knocks and a talented young QB in Winston, the hype-train is in full effect. The wins total opened at 7.5 and has moved to 8.5. This feels like the books taking advantage of the public and laying a trap. Taking under 8.5 wins has value and is a solid play.

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? Bets on Floyd Mayweather hit seven figures in Vegas

Betting on Football
August 25, 2017

Multiple $1 million bets on Floyd Mayweather were among a flurry of big money that showed up in Las Vegas on Thursday, shaking up the odds for the undefeated boxing champion’s showdown with UFC star Conor McGregor.

The MGM sportsbook took a $1 million bet on Mayweather at -550 odds from a VIP casino guest, who wired in the money to the casino cage ahead of the wager, MGM vice president of race and sports Jay Rood told ESPN. The bet would net just under $182,000, if Mayweather prevails.

It’s a fight which looks certain to break all pay-per-view records, and after months of build-up Mayweather vs McGregor will get under way in just over one day’s time.

The fight is happening on Saturday 26 August.

Bookies immediately predicted a Mayweather win as soon as the fight was announced. William Hill initially priced the veteran fighter as 1/11 favourite. He’s now significantly shorter, but still substantially favoured, at 2/9 .

Oddsmaker Nick Bogdanovich said the odds would be even more lopsided if it wasn’t for the deluge of small bets expected to come in from UFC fans on their fighter.

“Realistically if we were just putting up a number and didn’t have to take bets on it, Floyd would be 1/100,” Bogdanovich said. “But this will be a very, very big betting fight for sure, one of the biggest ever.”


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As always, make sure to check out the Line Reversals tool for all the NFL preseason and regular season games at http://www.nerdyfootball.com/betting/

2017 NFC North Betting Props ?

Betting on Football
August 24, 2017

Opening weekend (September 7th) is right around the corner and with a few key injuries and suspensions already making headlines, now is the time to start digging deeper into expectations for each team. Today we will take a look at the NFC North.

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Last season: 10-6
BetOnline O/U wins: 10.5

As long as Aaron Rodgers is the Packers QB, it’s hard to consider any other team for the NFC North. Green Bay won the division for the 5th time in 6 years and it doesn’t look there is a team to challenge them this season.

Adding Martellus Bennett gives Rodgers another weapon and, while there are a few questions on offensive line and running back, Green Bay should be just fine offensively. On the defensive side, the Packers upgraded a struggling secondary in the draft but pass defense should still be an area of concern.

Given the weak division and the importance of keeping guys healthy, I think the 10.5 wins is a touch too high. Looking at the under 10.5 wins is a solid play.

Last season: 9-7
BetOnline O/U wins: 7.5

Detroit snuck into the playoffs last year despite losing their last four regular season games. While Matthew Stafford was able to save a few wins with game winning drives, the defense was a huge liability.

The Lions used the offseason to upgrade across the board on defense but the underlying problems still remain. We can use a few key 2016 stats to project the Lions’ 2017 season…

Detroit won zero games against playoff teams last season. Detroit had a negative point differential. Stafford led eight 4th quarter game-winning drives, tying the record for most in a season.

With Stafford’s 4th quarter magic unlikely to happen again, Detroit could take a big step back this season. The win total opened at 8 and is now at 7.5 making this an easy pass.

Last season: 8-8
BetOnline O/U wins: 8.5

The Vikings did an admirable job dealing with the loss of Teddy Bridgewater and Adrian Peterson last season, winning their first 5 games and finishing with 8 wins. Sam Bradford will start again this season as Bridgewater most likely will miss at least the first 6 games.

Defensively, the Vikings took a step back last season but should be able to improve. The problem for Minnesota is on the offensive side of the ball. The Vikings ranked 28th in total yards and bottom ten in points per game.

Given Bradford is what he is at this point, I don’t think the Vikings can improve on the 8 wins of last season. With the under 8.5 wins at a still affordable -125, I think there is some value taking the under.

Last season: 3-13
BetOnline O/U wins: 5.5

Injuries and the combination of Jay Cutler/Brian Hoyer/Matt Barkley at quarterback doomed the Bears in 2016. Cutler is gone and Mike Glennon is now the stopgap until Mitch Trubisky is ready.

Glennon is definitely not the long term answer and the Bears will once again have problems offensively. The same degree of problems exist on the defensive side of the ball and, after winning only 3 games last season, the Bears product on the field might not be that much different.

But given the injuries last season, they should have a little luck on their side in that regard. With a win total of 5.5 at plus odds, taking a shot at the over is a solid value play.

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