On Thursday night, Dion Lewis displayed the value of a sneaky fantasy football flex play.

Riding the New England Patriots’ revolving running back carousel, the 24-year-old amassed 120 total yards (69 rushing, 51 receiving) during a 28-21 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers. With LeGarrette Blount serving a suspension and Jonas Gray surprisingly cut before the season began, Lewis seized the opportunity in his first game since 2012.

He’s the first but far from last player to exceed expectations this season. Several benched and unowned guys will tear the house down while established commodities deliver duds. Nothing ever fully follows the script, but that shouldn’t stop anyone from forming logical estimations for Week 1.

Here’s a look at flex rankings, tailored for standard scoring, for the opening weekend. After that, let’s dive deeper at players on the cusp of starting status.

RB Alfred Blue, Houston Texans (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)

Without an opportunity, even the most talented player becomes a meaningless fantasy option. But fantasy managers often fall into the trap of assuming anyone receiving reps automatically deserves their undivided attention.

Although Arian Foster has made rapid progress in his recovery from an offseason groin injury, he will not suit up for the Houston Texans on Sunday. That clears the way for Alfred Blue, who will look to do his part for a depleted offense, per the team’s Twitter page:

If he gets 36 carries like he did last November against the Cleveland Browns, the understudy will certainly make a great flex play. Still, the 24-year-old needs such a high-volume workload to flourish after averaging 3.1 yards per carry last year. Aside from the 156 yards compiled against Cleveland, he procured 154 total yards in two other games without Foster.

After getting worked to the ground against the Browns, Blue recorded 138 rushing yards on 65 carries over Houston’s final six games. Even with the likelihood of 15-20 touches, he’s more of a placeholder than difference-maker.

Considering Kansas City relinquished 4.7 yards per carry last year, stable touches make Blue flex-worthy for many owners. Just temper expectations. If 75-80 yards sounds good for someone needing to replace Foster, take the plunge and hope he stumbles his way into the end zone.

WR Rueben Randle, New York Giants (at Dallas Cowboys)

Victor Cruz won’t put on his dancing shoes just yet. The New York Giants officially ruled out the wide receiver playing his first game since Oct. 12, when he suffered a torn patellar tendon in his knee.

As a result, the widely ignored Rueben Randle will once again start alongside Odell Beckham Jr. Although a volatile option, he can make a major impact during a Sunday night shootout with the Dallas Cowboys.

Randle scored only three touchdowns last year, but he also amassed 938 yards on 127 targets while closing the 2014 season with 290 yards over New York’s final two games. While some may have expected him to take a back seat once Beckham emerged, he instead shined with defenses drawn to the star rookie.

Despite defying basement-low expectations last year, Dallas’ defense enters this NFC East showdown with some secondary concerns. Nerdy Football’s Matt Camp examined issues that present an opening for Randle:

Now, with a chance to get his season off to a strong start, Randle faces a Dallas secondary that lost their best cornerback, Orlando Scandrick, to a torn ACL and MCL just a few weeks ago. With that injury, the Cowboys are left with Morris Claiborne attempting to come back from a torn patellar of his own and Brandon Carr, who has been a massive disappointment since signing back in 2012.

The Giants have plenty of their own personnel concerns on defense, but that’s more about a general lack of talent. What this adds up to is a possible high-scoring affair with two quarterbacks who aren’t afraid to throw it in Manning and Tony Romo. Beckham should draw plenty of attention as the team’s top weapon, which could open things up for Randle to take advantage and with a height advantage over both Carr and Claiborne. Randle can go up and get jump balls and be a factor in the red zone.

Risk is inherent for any non-stud wideout, but Randle twice finished games with single-digit receiving yards, notching a lone yard during last year’s Week 1 slate. He also managed an inefficient 55.9 percent catch rate, so a breakout effort is far from a done deal.

If the alternatives are guys like Eric Decker, Mike Wallace and Torrey Smith, go ahead and roll the dice. Don’t, however, sit a Jeremy Maclin or Allen Robinson.

WR John Brown, Arizona Cardinals (vs. New Orleans Saints)

During a solid yet unspectacular rookie campaign for the Arizona Cardinals, John Brown collected 48 catches for 696 yards and five touchdowns. Had Carson Palmer not torn his ACL, the sophomore wideout would have received much more attention in draft rooms.

In six games with the veteran quarterback, Brown produced 315 receiving yards and three touchdowns, which prorates to 840 yards and eight scores over a full 16 games. NFL.com’s Matt Harmon compared the undersized pass-catcher to T.Y. Hilton, who notched 861 yards and seven scores as a rookie before breaking out:

John Brown performed markedly better when the team’s starting quarterback was in the lineup. Had Palmer played out the full season, it is not out of the question Brown would have finished right in line with Hilton’s 2012 season. The two players have very similar skill sets, and are both in the 5-foot-10 and 180-pound [Bruce] Arians‘ mold. For his encore, Hilton recorded 82 catches for 1,083 yards and five touchdowns. No one should rule out Brown having a similar season, if Carson Palmer plays all 16 games.

Week 1 presents the perfect opportunity to ignite his breakout campaign. The New Orleans Saints, last year’s No. 31-ranked defense, declared cornerback Keenan Lewis and safety Jairus Byrd out for Week 1 in Friday’s injury report. Meanwhile, Michael Floyd isn’t a lock to compete for Arizona.

Brown won’t receive as many targets as Randle, but he is a bigger threat to break free for a major play. Unless he realizes the Hilton comp, Brown is a high-upside matchup play ideal for a flex gamble.

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DraftKings opened up NFL Week 1 contests with ample time to spare, but everyone is still spending Sunday morning adjusting their lineups before the opening kickoff.

A roster that looked golden on Wednesday may have already unraveled due to injury or depth-chart maneuvering. Or perhaps someone simply looks better or worse at a second glance. That’s the fun (and frustrating) part of daily fantasy sports.

With precious time remaining, let’s take one last look at players whose Week 1 stock has risen or fallen leading up to the big day.

Stock Up

RB Danny Woodhead, San Diego Chargers ($3,700) vs. Detroit

After accruing 72 total yards in three games last year, 30-year-old running back Danny Woodhead will return against the Detroit Lions’ No. 1 rushing defense. Sound like an intriguing flex option yet?

The time off from injury can prove a blessing in disguise for the scatback, who amassed 1,034 total yards and eight touchdowns in 2013. San Diego Chargers offensive coordinator Frank Reich sang Woodhead‘s praises to Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune:

I think Danny looks stronger than ever, I really do. The year before, his first year here, he had an amazing season. But he took a beating. He had a lot of touches and carries. He was physically pretty beat up. So, I think he’s come back fresh and strong. Obviously we have Melvin. So, a little bit of a workload from there is off of Danny.

Having him back is a quarterback’s and offensive coordinator’s dream. Because he just does so much for you. There’s so much he can do. He has unique contributions that he can make to the offense. We certainly missed him last year. But it seems to me he’s as strong, as quick and certainly as smart as ever.

Of course, a coach wouldn’t openly call one of his players garbage. There’s also the matter of facing Detroit with rookie Melvin Gordon blocking him on the depth chart. Rotoworld’s Pat Thorman laid out a case for Woodhead deriving sneaky appeal, as the Lions relinquished 5.8 receptions and 47.9 yards per game to opposing backs last year.

If he draws attention in standard scoring, DraftKings contestants should especially eye him as the 40th-most expensive option under point-per-reception scoring. He doesn’t need to poach many handoffs from Gordon to prove valuable at such a low price.

WR Allen Hurns, Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,000) vs. Carolina Panthers

Searching for this year’s Allen Hurns to produce lavish Week 1 numbers from out of nowhere? How about Allen Hurns?

Last year, the Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver made his NFL debut with four catches, 110 yards and two touchdowns against the Philadelphia Eagles. Besides a 112-yard, two-touchdown outing eight weeks later, he failed to generate any encore efforts.

Although it’s not saying much, Hurns led the Jaguars with 677 receiving yards, six touchdowns and 11 catches of 20 yards or more. With Cecil Shorts—last year’s team leader in catches and targets—out of the picture, Hurns and popular breakout candidate Allen Robinson will take center stage with second-year quarterback Blake Bortles.

Robinson is the clear No. 1 and the superior PPR choice, but his 22-year-old teammate represents a high-reward play for $4,000. With all eyes on Robinson, Hurns could instead burn the Carolina Panthers, who allowed a 64.8 completion percentage last year.

Miami Dolphins D/ST ($3,000) at Washington

Washington’s decision to start Kirk Cousins provides a noteworthy fantasy upgrade…for its opponent.

With the help of two stellar games against the Jaguars and Philadelphia Eagles, Washington’s Week 1 starter submitted a strong 8.38 yards per passing attempt last season. He also, however, coughed up nine interceptions in 204 passes. In 14 career games, he has surrendered 19 picks with a 4.7 percent interception rate.

Last year’s No. 6 passing defense, the Miami Dolphins should have little problem flummoxing a guy who has spent three years rotating in and out of the starting lineup. Now that Ndamukong Suh anchors the defensive line, Cousins acknowledged the challenge ahead, per the team’s Twitter page:

Expect a lopsided game, which will force Cousins into a few mistakes while airing it out from behind. Miami isn’t cheap at $3,000, but it’ll prove worth the investment.

Stock Down

QB Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts ($8,300) at Buffalo

Andrew Luck is still the man. After leading all quarterbacks with 40 passing touchdowns and 23.7 DraftKings points per contest last year, the Indianapolis Colts superstar will welcome two veteran upgrades in Frank Gore and Andre Johnson. Expect another huge year.

This is where daily fantasy differs from the typical format. In year-long leagues, anyone who drafted Luck is starting him against the Buffalo Bills. DraftKings players, however, should fade the stud against a defense that allowed the second-fewest points to the position last year.

Per ESPN.com, the Bills allowed an NFL-low 16 passing touchdowns while snatching 19 interceptions. Now defensive guru Rex Ryan is running the show. With Matt Ryan, Tony Romo, Eli Manning, Ryan Tannehill, Sam Bradford and Carson Palmer all priced between $6,500 and $7,500, there are too many alternatives to spend big on Luck. If you have money to burn, cough up an extra $300 for Aaron Rodgers.

WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,700) vs. Tennessee

Even when healthy, Mike Evans isn’t the safest option at wide receiver. During a breakout rookie season, he registered four or fewer catches in 10 games, failing to exceed 80 yards outside of a monstrous three-game stretch.

The Tennessee Titans, who ranked No. 21 in DraftKings scoring allowed to wideouts last year, provide an opportunity for him to explode during Jameis Winston’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers debut. But the 22-year-old is a game-time decision with a hamstring injury.

Per the Tampa Tribune‘s Roy Cummings, Evans remained optimistic after progressing his recovery on Friday.

“I’ve been running, but this was the first day I was out there running routes at full speed, and it felt good,” Evans said. “There’s no official ruling yet, but I hope I’m playing.”

If cleared to go, he represents an intriguing tournament risk. Otherwise, an injured, volatile option isn’t worth the hassle given an abundance of affordable receivers. Save $500 by playing Jordan Matthews, or go even cheaper for Jarvis Landry ($5,600).

If Evans sits, Vincent Jackson ($6,000) receives a significant boost. The overlooked veteran isn’t a bad selection either way.

All pricing and scoring information obtained via DraftKings.com.

DraftKings is giving away over $10 million in Week 1 of the NFL season. Use this knowledge to help you win some of that cash. The biggest first-place prize ever at $2 million will be awarded. Play now for FREE at DraftKings.com.

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