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Aaron Rodgers, Randall Cobb, James Jones Post-Week 2 Fantasy Advice

Fantasy Football
September 20, 2015

The Green Bay Packers won Sunday, which means one thing: Aaron Rodgers had a productive day at the quarterback spot.

The two largely go hand-in-hand, and fantasy owners were likely thrilled with the performance of the passing game during the team’s 27-17 victory over the Seattle Seahawks. Rodgers and James Jones connected for another touchdown, and Randall Cobb racked up more than 100 receiving yards.

Here is a look at their final tallies:

Rodgers is the closest thing to a no-brainer fantasy play as there is in the entire league. He is one of the NFL’s best players: He has complete control of the game thanks to a strong arm and the ability to scramble outside the pocket and make plays, and he regularly finds the open man instead of honing in on one receiver.

All he did was throw for 4,381 passing yards and 38 touchdowns last year. It was his fifth season with more than 4,000 passing yards and the third time in the last four years he’s had at least 38 touchdown tosses (the one time he didn’t was in 2013, when he played only nine games).

Now, Rodgers has Green Bay at 2-0 even without Jordy Nelson (knee), much to the delight of fantasy owners.

Star running back Eddie Lacy‘s ankle injury, per Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports, will likely enhance Rodgers’ value moving forward because the Packers can use quick-hitting passes and screens as an extension of the running game until their star back returns. They did exactly that in the second half against Seattle, and Louis Riddick of ESPN noticed how successful it was against soft coverage:

Rodgers is always going to be one of the most expensive options in daily leagues (or in a preseason auction draft), but there is a reason for it. His production is nearly guaranteed regardless of the opponent, and he can anchor any fantasy squad as the potential MVP of the league this year.

As for Cobb, the absence of Nelson left him as the clear-cut No. 1 receiver on the Packers entering the season after he tallied career highs with 1,287 receiving yards and 12 touchdown catches in 2014.

Cobb played the part of top pass-catcher perfectly Sunday against a formidable Seattle defense after he had only 38 yards in Week 1 (although he did catch a touchdown in the season-opening victory).

Cobb boasts the speed to create separation against corners and make plays in the open field, and he is shifty and explosive enough to turn four-yard underneath routes into touchdowns. What’s more, his 11 targets Sunday indicated Rodgers sees him as a security blanket as other key contributors fall to injury, especially since Davante Adams had five targets, the next-highest total for the Packers.

Rodgers’ No. 1 receiver is a lock for fantasy lineups throughout the season as well, and Sunday’s outing against the former “Legion of Boom” secondary did nothing to change that notion.

Jones did not dominate like he did in Week 1, but he managed to find the end zone on a 29-yard catch. That play salvaged what would have been a disappointing fantasy outing after his two touchdown catches in the opener.

Jones’ value is largely a byproduct of playing with Rodgers, especially since there is a familiarity in place from the seven seasons he played for the Packers before he tallied 666 receiving yards and six touchdowns for the Oakland Raiders last year. One of those seven seasons in Green Bay saw Jones catch 14 touchdowns (2012).

Adams was a fantasy darling in many circles after Nelson went down with a season-ending knee injury because Cobb would likely draw coverage from opponents’ best corners, but Jones has thrived in that secondary receiver role with three touchdowns in two games.

The absence of Lacy could be a boost to the entire Packers receiving corps, including Jones, if they elect to keep the ball in the air. Green Bay notched 33 passes and 29 rushes Sunday, and that was after it jumped out to a double-digit lead by halftime (although Seattle came back in the third quarter before the Packers iced it).

The lack of consistent targets Sunday was scary for fantasy owners who are counting on Jones, but Green Bay will keep the ball in the air throughout the year. Some of those throws will find Jones’ hands (most likely in the end zone, given the way the first two weeks unfolded), which means he should still be in your lineup as a No. 2 receiver or flex option.

Jones is not the surefire lock that Rodgers or Cobb will be every week, but you should continue to play him until the touchdowns stop coming.

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Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch, Doug Baldwin Post-Week 2 Fantasy Advice

Fantasy Football
September 20, 2015

The Seattle Seahawks are off to a disappointing 0-2 start after winning the NFC title in the past two seasons, and fantasy owners who are relying on their offensive playmakers have received mixed results in the early going.

Quarterback Russell Wilson and wide receiver Doug Baldwin connected for a touchdown during a futile comeback attempt in Sunday’s 27-17 loss to the Green Bay Packers, but running back Marshawn Lynch consistently ran into a brick wall. Here is a look at their final stats:

The team is not going to panic after the loss, and neither should fantasy owners.

Wilson may not be seen in the same light as Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck when it comes to individual stardom and fantasy football, but he topped 3,100 passing yards in each of his first three seasons, including a career-high 3,475 in 2014.

Wilson’s ability to make plays with his legs as well as his arm (1,908 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground in his career entering Sunday’s game) is invaluable in fantasy football. Seattle’s offense finally moved the ball in the second half against the Packers when it opened up and let him operate in space and push the tempo.

Perhaps the Seahawks won’t wait as long to let Wilson loose in the future, which is what fantasy owners want to hear.

Wilson wasn’t fantastic Sunday, but he still managed to put up solid fantasy numbers. He is a safe, high-ceiling play every week, and that doesn’t change just because the Seahawks lost their first two games of the year.

As for Lynch, you cannot ignore his track record. He boasts four straight years of more than 1,200 rushing yards and double-digit touchdown totals with the Seahawks, and the lack of dominant wide receivers on the roster means Lynch is always going to be a primary focus in the offense.

His lack of a touchdown or any significant running room this year at the age of 29 should be concerning, though. He also had 2,051 career carries coming into Sunday’s game, and eventually even Lynch will reach a point at which he isn’t the same guy.

Don’t push the panic button after only two weeks, however, because he is too talented to remove from your lineup. Just keep the workload in mind, especially if he struggles throughout the first half of the season. Then, it may be time to start looking elsewhere for fantasy help, but it would be a reactionary move at this point.

Lynch’s presence has always been a blessing for Baldwin because opposing defenses often stuff the box to stop the powerful runner. Baldwin took advantage Sunday with a touchdown and bounced back with a solid showing and confidence boost after 35 yards and no touchdowns in Week 1.

What’s more, tight end Jimmy Graham is not siphoning yardage from the other options in the passing game, with 62 total yards after Sunday’s 11-yard effort.

Baldwin is fresh off a 2014 campaign that saw him tally a career-high 825 receiving yards. He appeared to grow more comfortable with Wilson from game to game, and no other Seattle receiver topped 537 receiving yards a year ago. Baldwin is not going to be a topnotch option in fantasy circles a la Calvin Johnson or Antonio Brown, but he is a solid play in the flex position every week.

Ultimately, he is the top receiving target for an impressive quarterback who will find him in space while opposing defenses key in on stopping the run.

Wilson, Lynch and Baldwin should all be in your lineup in Week 3 because they play the hapless Chicago Bears defense. Chicago allowed a stunning 48 points to the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, and Larry Fitzgerald caught three of Carson Palmer’s four touchdown passes.

Sarah Spain of ESPN painted an enticing picture for fantasy owners who are counting on the Seahawks next week:

Chicago looked like the 2014 version of its defense, which finished 30th in total defense and 31st in scoring defense. The Seahawks are desperate for a win, and they are running into the perfect opposing unit.

That means it should be a fantasy field day for the offensive playmakers.

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James Starks' Updated 2015 Fantasy Outlook After Eddie Lacy's Injury

Fantasy Football
September 20, 2015

The Green Bay Packers faced an imposing showdown with the Seattle Seahawks defense in Week 2, but that didn’t stop the rushing attack from racking up yards on the way to a 27-17 victory. Thanks largely to Eddie Lacy’s injury, James Starks was the most impressive runner of the bunch and picked up some unexpected fantasy points in the process.

Here is a look at his final stat line:

Starks would not have received so many touches if Lacy hadn’t left in the first half with the injury. The Packers noted the former Alabama star was out for the game, and Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports pointed out Lacy couldn’t put any weight on his ankle and was carted to the locker room.

It’s too early to tell, but that doesn’t sound promising for a quick return.

That is a serious blow for the Packers because Lacy topped 1,100 rushing yards in each of the last two seasons as a perfect complement to Aaron Rodgers. Lacy is a bowling ball between the tackles who takes advantage of extra space Rodgers creates.

It is unfair to expect Starks to replicate those numbers even if he does start without Lacy, but he is a veteran in his sixth season in the league. He boasted 1,762 rushing yards and seven touchdowns in his career entering Sunday’s game, but he has never tallied more than 578 rushing yards in one year (2011, which was the only time he reached the 500-yard plateau).

The lack of monster individual seasons is concerning for fantasy owners, although Starks did enough to impress Mike Clay of Pro Football Focus:

If Starks is going to serve as a dark-horse fantasy contributor while Lacy heals, the offensive line must create enough holes to exploit. Fortunately for Packers fans, Michael Renner of Pro Football Focus ranked Green Bay as the fourth-best offensive line in the league coming into the season.

The Packers were a solid 11th in the NFL in rushing yards in 2014, and they tallied a solid 133 in a Week 1 win this year against the Chicago Bears and 127 Sunday. The offensive line’s track record means Starks should see some openings moving forward.

What’s more, the presence of quarterback Aaron Rodgers and wide receivers Randall Cobb, James Jones, Davante Adams and Ty Montgomery makes it nearly impossible for opposing defenses to stack the box against the Packers, even without Jordy Nelson.

Rodgers is one of the best players in the league, and he controls the tempo of almost every game he plays with an ability to scramble from the pocket when protection breaks down and distribute the ball to a number of receivers. The fact Green Bay is 2-0 and beat the two-time defending NFC champs Sunday without Nelson is a testament to Rodgers’ greatness.

Starks is more valuable as a fantasy option because he plays alongside a quarterback who creates so many running lanes as a result of the respect he commands from the opposition.

Starks’ ability to get involved in the passing attack will also help in fantasy circles. The running back caught four passes Sunday and had 63 catches in his career before the contest. Those numbers don’t leap off the page, but it at least proves Rodgers can trust him coming out of the backfield on passing downs.

Just because Starks could be a part of a dynamic offense alongside a bonafide star quarterback doesn’t mean you should automatically plug him into your lineup.

For one, if Lacy’s injury is less serious than it appeared Sunday, he will be right back in the starting running back spot for the Packers. That severely limits Starks’ value because the touches won’t be there.

Another concern is the fact Starks has not carried the ball more than 133 times in a single year, and that came back in 2011. That was actually the only year he even reached 90 carries in a season.

Fantasy owners cannot just expect him to assume a major workload given that track record even without Lacy (and Sunday’s fumble won’t convince the coaching staff to give Starks 20 carries a game), and the Packers will likely use a number of short passes and screens as an extension of the rushing attack until their workhorse returns.

If Lacy is ruled out for an extensive time, Starks would be worth a flyer in deep leagues because he plays for the high-octane Green Bay attack. That means you should grab Starks from the waiver wire this week until there is a more definitive ruling on Lacy’s injury, but don’t immediately plug the Packers’ backup running back into your starting lineup.

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Sunday Roundup: Bryant, Chancellor, Broncos, Texans

NFL News
September 20, 2015

Cowboys dynamic receiver Dez Bryant has a very unclear timeline for his return. Initial reports had him returning in 4-6 weeks, while subsequent stories suggested he could miss as many as 10 or 12 games due to his foot injury. However, amidst these conflicting reports, Bryant himself chose to weigh in on these reports via his personal Twitter account.

  • Seahawks general manager John Schneider can sleep a little easier while holding strong in his stance against renegotiating Kam Chancellor‘s contract. Owner Paul Allen supports Schneider in this standoff, reports Conor Orr of NFL.com. That is one less force pressuring the team to soften its stance on negotiations with the superstar safety.
  • The Broncos may be 2-0 after escaping with narrow wins against both Baltimore and Kansas City, but they have a big question at running back. Starter C.J. Anderson has been ineffective, and backup Ronnie Hillman has emerged as a potentially better option for Denver. Troy Renck and Mark Kiszla of the Denver Post argue about if and when the team should make a change.
  • Many fans were confused by how quickly the Texans switched from Brian Hoyer to Ryan Mallett after just one game. Kevin Patra of NFL.com passes on a few reasons, courtesy of reporting done by Ian Rapoport. Those reasons include the spark he brought to the team, how he handled losing the starting job, eliminating negative plays, and simply looking for star wide receiver Deandre Hopkins.

DeMarco Murray, Jordan Matthews, Sam Bradford's Post-Week 2 Fantasy Advice

Fantasy Football
September 20, 2015

The only people who had a worse Sunday than Chip Kelly are fantasy football owners who started Sam Bradford and DeMarco Murray. At least the Jordan Matthews owners picked up a receiving touchdown in garbage time of the Philadelphia Eagles‘ 20-10 defeat to the Dallas Cowboys.

Here’s a look at how the three players performed in Week 2:

Murray’s numbers between Weeks 1 and 2 are almost comical—to the extent they have nowhere to go but up. Should this tweet from ESPN Stats & Info actually come true, it would almost be impressive on the part of Murray and the Eagles:

Also, let’s enjoy all of the players who temporarily have more rushing yards than the Eagles running back, per SportsCenter:

If you have Murray on your team, don’t overreact. Maybe you put him on the bench for a week to see if this trend continues, but you shouldn’t drop him from your team completely.

You also shouldn’t trade him because his value isn’t exactly sky-high at the moment. There’s little chance you’d get fair value for Murray in return.

Be patient. Maybe the 27-year-old doesn’t emerge as an RB1 this year, but he should be a valuable fantasy option in 2015 nonetheless.

The same positive attitude shouldn’t be afforded to Bradford, who is firmly QB2 material. Judging by how he looked Sunday, that designation is unlikely to change this year. Bradford can’t handle pressure in the pocket, and his decision-making is questionable at times.

While head coach Chip Kelly didn’t outright say he plans on benching Bradford any time soon, he didn’t completely dismiss the notion after Sunday’s game.

“We’ve been there, and we understand that,” Kelly said of his team’s slow start, per Max Rappaport of PhiladelphiaEagles.com. “(But) just because we went through it before doesn’t mean we’re going to get it straightened out. We’ll evaluate everything, (like) we evaluated everything then.”

Unless he loses his starting job to Mark Sanchez, Bradford should occupy a place on your bench in the seemingly unlikely event he goes all Nick Foles circa 2013.

The good news for fantasy owners who have Matthews is that his value shouldn’t fluctuate quite like Bradford’s or Murray’s. Matthews is the No. 1 target in the Eagles’ passing game, which is bound to lead to big numbers in Philadelphia’s offense.

Bradford’s inconsistency could hurt Matthews somewhat every once in a while but not to the extent you’ll want to bench him.

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