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Bills Notes: Harvin, Kromer, Defense

NFL News
October 19, 2015

Coming off yet another loss at Ralph Wilson Stadium, where they’re now 1-3 this season, the Bills will aim to get back on track overseas in Week 7. However, it doesn’t appear Percy Harvin will be able to play in the team’s game in London, according to Adam Schefter of ESPN.com (via Twitter).

As Mike Rodak of ESPN.com tweets, there are several Bills players whose status for that London game against the Jaguars is uncertain, so we’ll have to see how the team addresses its roster — typically, last-minute roster changes on the week of a London game are tricky, so the Bills figure to make a roster change or two sooner rather than later, if necessary.

Here are a few more Bills-related items:

  • Buffalo offensive line coach Aaron Kromer is scheduled to return from his suspension this week, tweets Schefter. Kromer had been banned six games by the team for an alleged offseason altercation.
  • Mario Williams said after Sunday’s loss to the Bengals that he “probably set a [personal] record on dropping [into coverage],” and the results weren’t particularly great. With some Bills defenders hinting at confusion over the scheme, John Kryk of the Toronto Sun suggests Rex Ryan risks losing the locker room if he doesn’t start getting more aggressive with his defensive playcalling.
  • General manager Doug Whaley has yet to discuss his quarterback situation with the media, and Jerry Sullivan of the Buffalo News is looking forward to hearing why the GM traded away Matt Cassel and “forced [EJ] Manuel on his coaches as the No. 2.”

Sammy Watkins not likely to play Week 7

Fantasy Football, NFL News
October 19, 2015
Injury“Doubtful”

Source confirms that Kyle Williams will not play Sunday. And, also, Sammy Watkins is “doubtful” to play this Sunday against the Jags. Bills (Joe Buscaglia on Twitter)

Nerdy Football Analysis: Watkins caught a second quarter touchdown then had to be assisted off the field. He’s missed the last two weeks with a calf injury and seems unlikely to play this week in London against the Jaguars. With Percy Harvin (hip) likely out as well, The passing game should continue to funnel through TE Charles Clay.

Week 7 Waiver Wire: Stefon Diggs, Benjamin Watson Highlight Pickups to Know

Fantasy Football
October 19, 2015

It’s never fun to throw away an established name for a Benjamin Watson, but, well, welcome to the fantasy football Week 7 waiver wire.

Survival is a basic instinct that translates well to the realm of fake football for most. Those owners able to throw aside connections to players they drafted after working so hard to perfect a draft class are the ones digging up the waiver gems and winning leagues.

For those willing to set aside such connections for the greater good, below rests a who’s-who guide of the Week 7 waiver wire, including players with surprise playing time, performances and roles.

Week 7 Waiver-Wire Pickup Targets

Brian Hoyer, QB, Houston Texans (6.2 Percent Owned)

It’s a relatively weak waiver wire for signal-callers this time out after Josh McCown led the way for two weeks.

Now it’s time to click “Add” on Houston Texans quarterback Brian Hoyer. He just tossed a trio of scores this past weekend on the way to 23 points and a spot as the position’s fifth-highest scorer before Monday.

This isn’t an isolated incident, either. Hoyer has 17 or more points in three consecutive games despite the fact that he hasn’t even been the starter for three consecutive games.

Now he is. Hoyer‘s a game manager, sure, but his stats inflate like a balloon playing on an offense with DeAndre Hopkins and Arian Foster. Owners in a pinch have no excuse to look anywhere else.

James Starks, RB, Green Bay Packers (22.3 Percent Owned)

It’s time to say goodbye to Eddie Lacy.

This is what the intro was talking about. Lacy was at worst a second-round pick after reliable production last season. Something’s changed in Green Bay, though, because Lacy took just four carries against a miserable San Diego Chargers defense in Week 6 while backup James Starks carried it 10 times for 112 yards and one score.

“We’re a one-two punch team,” coach Mike McCarthy said, per Michael Cohen of the Journal Sentinel. “It’s really no different than the way we operate. We went with James first just because he’s been playing extremely well, and Eddie has been a little banged up.”

Translation: Get Starks right away. He collected 23 fantasy points in a solid matchup this past weekend. It’s pretty clear the coaching staff will ride the hot hand, not the one with the bigger name, and right now, that would be Starks.

While he’s headed into a bye week, it’s a good idea to stash Starks. The way the first six weeks have gone, he might wind up as the season-long starter.

Stefon Diggs, WR, Minnesota Vikings (3.0 Percent Owned)

Now would be the time to pay attention to Minnesota Vikings wideout Stefon Diggs.

The fifth-round rookie is on the verge of a breakout despite the presence of Mike Wallace and Kyle Rudolph around him. Adrian Peterson in the backfield hasn’t hampered Diggs‘ production over the last two weeks, either.

Diggs has at least six catches and eight fantasy points over his last two games, with his seven grabs for 129 yards going for 12 points this past weekend. He’s fully worked his way into playing time and a better rapport with quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, so there’s no reason to believe the consistent production won’t continue.

Some may ask for a bigger sample size before pulling the trigger, but Diggs‘ next two opponents rank among the 12 teams allowing the most points to wideouts on average.

Sometimes investing in the samples is a great move.

Benjamin Watson, TE, New Orleans Saints (4.0 Percent Owned)

Fantasy owners decried the loss of Jimmy Graham for the New Orleans Saints without realizing the team would find a capable replacement.

Veteran Benjamin Watson has never raised any eyebrows as a fantasy contributor, but the journeyman has stepped up in a big way for the struggling Saints offense. He wound up second in scoring at the position in Week 6 before Monday behind only Carolina’s Greg Olsen.

There, Watson caught 10 passes for 127 yards and a score, good for 18 points. It made for his second consecutive touchdown and trip to at least nine points.

In fact, the production was bigger than any outburst Graham has had in Seattle, and Watson has scored just as many touchdowns. As a reliable veteran who has now emerged as an every-down option for Drew Brees, owners will want to jump on board in a hurry.

Reliable production is rare at tight end, but Watson might just provide it as he plays the Graham role in the pass-happy New Orleans offense.

All scoring info courtesy of ESPN standard leagues, as are points-against info and ownership stats, as of October 18. Statistics courtesy of ESPN.com.

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Keenan Allen sits 4th qtr with hip flexor

Fantasy Football, NFL News
October 19, 2015
InjuryInjury doesn’t appear serious

Chargers WR Keenan Allen suffered hip flexor injury Sunday that’ll be tested today, per source. Allen does not believe injury to be serious. (Adam Schefter on Twitter)

Nerdy Football Analysis: Allen might have had 20 catches yesterday with Philip Rivers throwing 65 times on his way to 503 yards and two touchdowns. As it was, Allen caught 14 passes for 157 yards and didn’t play in the fourth quarter. The Chargers are struggling to run the ball with rookie Melvin Gordon, making Rivers and his receiving options high value fantasy plays on a weekly basis.

Daily Fantasy Football Week 7: Predicting DraftKings Top Performers and Busts

Fantasy Football
October 19, 2015

It is never too early to look ahead to the next week in daily fantasy football, especially if the previous week didn’t exactly go according to plan.

Did your perfect lineup fail to live up to expectations? Forget them all and pick a new perfect lineup this week. Although injury information and other factors could force some changes in the coming days, here is an early look at the best and worst options for Week 7.

Quarterback

There are some players in daily fantasy where no price is too great, and Tom Brady is approaching that level. He is $900 more than any other quarterback in Week 7 (thanks in part to Aaron Rodgers being on bye), but he has simply been too consistent to avoid.

After topping 25 fantasy points for the sixth game in a row, feel free to keep Brady in your lineup even with a tough matchup and at his most expensive level of the season.

That type of consistency has also helped Carson Palmer become a great weekly choice at a cheaper price. He didn’t have his best game in Week 6 from an efficiency standpoint, but the veteran quarterback threw a season-high 421 passing yards in a loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. With a better matchup in Week 7 against the Baltimore Ravens, he should once again top 20 points easily.

Russell Wilson hasn’t been as good as these players in 2015, but his value has fallen almost every week to the point that he is underrated in fantasy. He will face the worst San Francisco 49ers defense he has ever seen on Thursday, however, and he can utilize his dual-threat ability to post big fantasy numbers.

Finally, Blake Bortles shouldn’t necessarily be in the same category as the quarterbacks mentioned here, but he is in fantasy. Chris Wesseling of NFL.com broke down the type of year the Jacksonville Jaguars starter has had:

The last one is a joke, but the first two numbers are true. Still, the high interception totals don’t quite matter as much when he is firing tons of touchdowns. The actual play on the field still needs work, but he has been a top fantasy producer in recent weeks.

On the other hand, the same cannot be said about Matt Ryan as of late. Although throwing the ball up to Julio Jones is usually a great strategy, the quarterback is only averaging 14.4 fantasy points over the past three games. Against a Tennessee Titans defense that leads the NFL with 184 passing yards allowed per game, this might be a time to avoid the Atlanta Falcons star.

Beyond that there aren’t really many overpriced options, but Matthew Stafford and Derek Carr are facing tough matchups in Week 7 and have simply been too inconsistent to trust in daily fantasy.

Running Back

Like Brady, it is hard to bet against Devonta Freeman at this point based on how well he has played. The running back has come out of nowhere to average 39.4 fantasy points over the last four games on DraftKings.

Everyone in your contest might have him, but you might not want to be left behind with the way he has played.

That said, there is plenty of value to be had in Week 7 at running back. LeSean McCoy finally looked healthy in Week 6 and finished with 17 carries for 90 yards and a touchdown. Todd Gurley is coming off a bye after totaling 140 rushing yards in back-to-back games and now faces the struggling Cleveland Browns run defense.

As for Lamar Miller, it’s clear the talent was there the whole time, but he just never got the ball. Nerdy Football’s Mike Freeman seemingly spoke for everyone watching at home with his thoughts:

The Miami Dolphins coaching change made a big difference for the running back, and he is a good bet to succeed going forward.

Depending on the health of Washington Redskins running back Matt Jones, Chris Thompson could be a good sleeper pick for the price. He had 11 touches against the New York Jets in Week 6, but he could do a lot more with that against a weaker Tampa Bay Buccaneers front. He also gets plenty of catches to help his score in a points-per-reception contest.

With so much value across the board, this might be a week to avoid top-priced Le’Veon Bell. Teams are starting to stack the line against him, and it led to just 88 rushing yards on 24 carries in Week 6. He is still one of the best in the league, but the value is just not there.

The same could be said about Dion Lewis, who has jumped in price from one of the best picks every week to borderline overpriced at $6,500. He is coming off his worst game of the season (just 6.9 fantasy points) and faces a tough Jets defensive line. Wait until the price comes down to jump back on the bandwagon.

Charcandrick West and Ameer Abdullah both had chances to shine as the lead dogs in their respective backfield and couldn’t do much. Even at cheap prices they just don’t offer enough to justify a fantasy start.

Wide Receiver

Until further notice, it seems DeAndre Hopkins is the best fantasy receiver in the league. After his 10-catch, 148-yard, two-touchdown performance in Week 6, it’s clear it doesn’t matter who is throwing him the ball. He will get tons of targets and bring down most of them for a big game every week.

Calvin Johnson also reminded people how good he can be with his big day Sunday (166 yards and a touchdown). Even when the numbers aren’t there, the Detroit Lions try to get him the ball, which is a good sign for more fantasy points going forward.

One often overlooked player at the position is Allen Robinson, who has five touchdowns this year but is still at a middling price. Sports Illustrated was still impressed by the effort this week:

As long as he is healthy, he is a good bet to succeed.

There are also cheaper options available with the always dangerous Vincent Jackson in a great matchup against the banged-up Redskins secondary. You could also get great value with Stefon Diggs, who has become Teddy Bridgewater’s new favorite target, per ESPN’s Ben Goessling:

The rookie has played well in his last two games and is prepared to keep it up over the course of the season.

Meanwhile, there are a few top receivers you might want to avoid this week. This includes Antonio Brown, who has just 11 catches for 111 yards over the past three games combined. That used to be a normal game for him. Unless Ben Roethlisberger suits up, Brown has to stay out of your lineup.

Julian Edelman doesn’t quite have the value he once did and is now coming into a tough matchup against the Jets with a finger injury also holding him back. He has been heavily owned each week, but this might be a time to look in another direction.

Amari Cooper is still a great receiver, but for the second game in a row he faces a tough opponent. After being slowed by the Broncos, he now faces a Chargers secondary that can keep him from busting loose. Better days will be ahead, but not this week.

Note: All prices and fantasy score info courtesy of DraftKings. Unless otherwise noted, all stats courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com.


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