Those on the fast track to a fantasy football title ahead of Week 7 understand how to treat stars: like everyone else.
In Week 6, starting Buffalo Bills running back LeSean McCoy made plenty of sense against the San Francisco 49ers, and he responded with 32 points.
But rewind to Week 2, when Shady sat in a terrible matchup against the New York Jets. Those who still trotted him out got only eight points, while backups and waiver-wire adds could have produced more.
Benching stars is a polarizing topic, but a necessary one. As such, here’s a list of matchup value comparisons and start-sit decisions.
Quarterback
Star to Know: Andy Dalton, CIN (vs. CLE)
Though his Cincinnati Bengals look like a mess, few quarterbacks have been as consistent as Andy Dalton over the past few weeks.
Previously a sit option because he’s had little more than A.J. Green to work with, Dalton has tallied 21 points in each of his last two outings.
Call it his floor against the Cleveland Browns.
The Browns allow the second-most points to quarterbacks on average and have been especially potent for owners over the past two weeks, coughing up a respective 29 and 27 points. The unit has allowed at least two passing scores in each game and three in four straight games.
Dalton will have a field day against a division rival.
Star to Sit: Carson Palmer, ARI (vs. SEA)
The man Dalton replaced, Carson Palmer, actually sits on a higher ownership percentage than the Cincinnati quarterback (84.3 vs. 75.5).
It’s funny because Palmer has scored three, 11 and 12 points over his last three outings while also missing a game due to injury. The 12 is the most important of all, as Palmer took on a miserable Jets secondary in Week 6 and led a 28-3 victory—while only throwing one touchdown.
It isn’t time to completely throw in the towel on Palmer, but there’s zero reason to trot him out in Week 7 against the Seattle Seahawks. His NFC West foes allow the third-fewest points to quarterbacks and have permitted just four passing touchdowns.
Running Back
Star to Know: LeGarrette Blount, NE (at PIT)
There was only one way that owners of New England Patriots running back LeGarrette Blount could be happy with the return of Tom Brady—if he blew away teams and Blount saw major usage to grind out games.
That’s exactly what has happened.
Blount looked good with 18 or more points in two of his first four games. Since Brady’s return two games ago, he’s totaled nine or more and a touchdown in each.
Week 7 will feature more of the same when the Patriots encounter the Ben Roethlisberger-less Pittsburgh Steelers. Not only will Pittsburgh be unable to match Brady’s scoring, but its defense allows the fourth-most points to backs on average.
Coming off a week in which the Pittsburgh defense allowed 40 points to Miami Dolphins running backs, Blount could have his best performance of the year.
Star to Sit: Frank Gore, IND (at TEN)
Indianapolis hasn’t exactly been known as a fantasy wonderland for backs in recent years.
Just look at this note from ESPN Stats & Info:
Keep in mind that Frank Gore has been around for a few years now, so it’s not a good sign that the normally reliable veteran finally broke the streak.
Don’t try to ride the streak, either. Gore isn’t what he once was, the Indianapolis offensive line can’t protect Andrew Luck (23 sacks), and this week’s opponents are the Tennessee Titans.
The Titans have allowed only three rushing touchdowns by backs this year and a maximum of 17 total points to opposing backfields. In what figures to be a low-scoring affair, Gore won’t have room to work with for most of the day.
Wide Receiver
Star to Know: Brandon Marshall, NYJ (vs. BAL)
Fantasy owners probably wanted to run for the hills when it came to Jets wideout Brandon Marshall after the team announced Geno Smith would start under center in Week 7.
Instead, flock to Marshall.
It sounds crazy, but Marshall remains a top-tier wideout if a passable quarterback starts under center. Most fantasy owners could probably deliver the ball to Marshall in Week 7 against the Baltimore Ravens, too.
The Ravens don’t just allow the second-most points to wideouts on average, but Jimmy Smith, Elvis Dumervil, Terrell Suggs and C. J. Mosley have battled injuries this week.
In other words, Geno Smith should have all day to get Marshall the ball against a unit that has allowed four wideouts to score multiple touchdowns and 12 total.
Star to Sit: DeAndre Hopkins, HOU (at DEN)
Someone might ask how owners can afford to sit DeAndre Hopkins.
The answer is simple: Most wouldn’t know the difference between Hopkins starting or riding the pine this year, because he’s been so ineffective.
Hopkins is a top-10 wideout, but playing with Brock Osweiler at quarterback hasn’t done him much good so far. Nuk has scored more than 11 fantasy points in a game once and hit single digits three times, including a game with no points at all (Week 4 vs. Tennessee).
Now owners trust him to go out against an elite Denver Broncos defense that has surrendered one touchdown to opposing wideouts? Please. The Broncos allow the fewest points to wideouts on average, and Hopkins will just be another one in 2016.
Tight End
Star to Know: Kyle Rudolph, MIN (at PHI)
Even with a Week 6 bye, Minnesota Vikings tight end Kyle Rudolph has quietly landed as the sixth-highest scorer at his position.
Sam Bradford‘s taking over under center has done Rudolph plenty of good. In three of his four outings before the bye, he scored a touchdown three times while going for nine or more points.
On paper, Rudolph shouldn’t have any problems doing so again in Week 7 against the Philadelphia Eagles, who just let Washington Redskins backup Vernon Davis catch two passes for 50 yards and a score.
In a grind-it-out affair, Bradford will look at Rudolph early and often.
Star to Sit: Coby Fleener, NO (at KC)
One could argue that New Orleans Saints tight end Coby Fleener isn’t a star—but they’d be wrong. He sits two points behind Rudolph on the scoring list and ahead of Delanie Walker and Travis Kelce.
But Fleener is a boom-or-bust player with nothing in between. He has outings of 16 and 19 points in great matchups. In the three other games this year, he’s totaled three points.
Call Fleener the easiest fantasy player to project. Week 7 sees him go against the Kansas City Chiefs, who have allowed only one touchdown and double-digit performance to opposing tight ends all year.
Don’t overthink it.
All scoring info and statistics courtesy of ESPN.com standard leagues, as are points-against info and ownership stats.
Follow Chris Roling (@Chris_Roling) on Twitter.
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