There’s no exact science to fantasy football, but one of the agreed-upon principles says owners who know when to sit a star player usually come out ahead of those who blindly trust in names.
Last week serves up a good example, as Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson mustered just five points. The inverse works too, though, as owners brave enough to slap Pittsburgh Steelers wideout Antonio Brown in lineups against the Denver Broncos got 30.
Given the busy nature of the holiday season, let’s take a moment to compare values at each position and highlight some big names to start and sit.
QB
Star to Know: Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. CLE)
It’s always hard to figure out if an owner should throw Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith into lineups.
Sometimes Smith posts just 11 points—like he did last week. Other times he hits 24, such as back in Week 13.
The best way to approach Smith is by looking at the matchup. This week it’s the Cleveland Browns, the team allowing the third-most points to quarterbacks this year after allowing three passing scores last week.
With weapons such as wide receiver Jeremy Maclin and tight end Travis Kelce, Smith is rarely a bad decision in an elite matchup, which he has here.
Star to Bench: Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills (vs. DAL)
Paired with another quarterback, Tyrod Taylor of the Buffalo Bill surely carried a few owners to the playoffs.
Taylor has had outbursts of 24 or more points five times this year, three of those coming over his last four outings. An elite weapon such as wideout Sammy Watkins and an ability to run the ball helps.
Despite the recent explosiveness, Taylor’s one to ignore this week. His opponent, the Dallas Cowboys, only let up the ninth-fewest points to quarterbacks this season and has never allowed more than two passing scores in game.
This contest might be a surprisingly defensive-minded affair, so sit Taylor.
RB
Star to Know: Chris Ivory, New York Jets (vs. NE)
It’s easy to forget Chris Ivory of the New York Jets is fantasy’s seventh-highest scorer at the position.
Given such a status, Ivory’s mostly a matchup-free option most weeks thanks to his eight trips to double digits.
He certainly is this week against the New England Patriots. The Patriots might allow the eighth-fewest points to the spot and held Ivory to 11 points in Week 7, but there’s reason for optimism.
For one, Ivory gets usage. He hasn’t had single-digit carries since Week 11. He took 17 against the Patriots and managed 11 points despite not reaching paydirt, which he can certainly do.
At home and with the Jets looking to employ a run-first approach to keep their playoff hopes alive, Ivory’s going to have a big game.
Star to Bench: Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons (vs. CAR)
Fantasy’s top-scoring back or not, owners have to ignore Atlanta Falcons leader Devonta Freeman this week.
Freeman has been unreliable at best since a Week 10 bye, scoring four, zero, nine, zero and 15 points in the games since.
That doesn’t look like the guy who posted eight consecutive double-digit outings beginning in Week 2, but the Falcons don’t look anything like their usual selves either.
One of those four-point outings came by way of an encounter with the elite (and undefeated) Carolina Panthers defense. It’s not a matchup owners alive in the playoffs should want to fool with.
WR
Star to Know: Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers (at BAL)
Expect someone else?
If the matchup wasn’t this good, the spotlight might go to someone else. But this is just silly—Brown, who pasted an elite Broncos secondary for 16 catches, 189 yards and two scores last time out, now gets fantasy’s worst defense against the position.
The Baltimore Ravens have managed to cough up 25 touchdowns to wideouts this year. Granted, folks will point out that Brown only posted four points on the same unit back in Week 4, but all that did was prove even he can’t overcome having Michael Vick at quarterback.
Ben Roethlisberger‘s back, making it almost a sure thing Brown stands as the top receiver once again.
Star to Bench: Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos (vs. CIN)
Demaryius Thomas hasn’t been himself this season, going to double digits just seven times.
The opportunities have been there, seeing as he ranks fourth with 155 targets, so the lack of quarterback Peyton Manning isn’t the problem.
Whatever it is, the problem figures to rear its head again next Monday against the Cincinnati Bengals, owners of a defense allowing the seventh-fewest points to wideouts with just 11 touchdowns surrendered on the season.
This one might come at home, but Thomas hasn’t been making the most of his chances, and it’s hard to imagine he does against one of the league’s top secondaries.
TE
Star to Know: Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers (at ATL)
Greg Olsen is alive and well, folks.
Olsen had an injury scare a couple of weeks back, helping him to notably only post five points against the Atlanta Falcons.
It’s payback time.
One week removed from catching six passes for 79 yards and a touchdown for a smooth 13 points, Olsen gets another shot at a struggling Falcons defense. With the Panthers still gunning for home-field advantage, quarterback Cam Newton‘s top target will have a monster day.
Star to Bench: Gary Barnidge, Cleveland Browns (at KC)
Despite his presence on the Cleveland Browns, tight end Gary Barnidge is very much a fantasy star this year.
Just not this week.
Barnidge ranks right behind Olsen in scoring thanks to his eight trips to double digits and an odd breakout campaign at the age of 30. He’s scored nine touchdowns this year, but it’s going to be tough sledding against the Chiefs.
Kansas City allows the fewest points to tight ends this year, having allowed just three touchdowns and one double-digit outing. It’s been fun watching Barnidge, and he’s been a major asset. But owners have to avoid him this week.
All scoring info courtesy of ESPN standard leagues, as are points-against info and ownership stats as of December 23. Statistics courtesy of ESPN.com.
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