Before Carson Palmer and Adrian Peterson square off on Thursday Night Football for fantasy football supremacy in Week 14, owners face some of the toughest decisions of the year.
With some big names such as Matt Ryan faltering and others such as Russell Wilson surging, playing the big names isn’t as easy as it was earlier in the season.
Look at last week, where owners got all of six points from Philip Rivers but 35 from rookie Marcus Mariota.
To better navigate the late-season minefield, here’s a look at value comparisons for each position and what to do with some of the game’s biggest stars.
QB
Star to Know: Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (at BAL)
Don’t look now, but the aforementioned Wilson sits as the sixth-highest scoring quarterback in fantasy.
The leader of the Seattle Seahawks came out of nowhere, too, throwing up 25, 34 and 33 points over his previous three games in what is suddenly a potent passing attack even without Jimmy Graham.
Wilson’s new potent offense visits the hapless Baltimore Ravens this weekend, where Wilson shouldn’t have any problems going off against the defense allowing the eighth-most points to the position.
It’s not easy to trust Wilson after a season of iffy outings, but this matchup says otherwise.
Star to Bench: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (at CIN)
It’s never easy to sit a guy like Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.
This is especially the case when Big Ben has 21 or more points in each of his past four outings. The catch? Look at the performance before the four-game tear—an eight-point showing against the Cincinnati Bengals in which he tossed three interceptions.
Now Big Ben has to visit those Bengals, whose performance against him wasn’t a fluke by any means because the team permits just the second-fewest points to the position.
In fact, Cincinnati has allowed just one double-digit outburst by a quarterback over its last four outings. Big Ben might have enough to add another, but his doing so on the road in the cold isn’t something owners should rely on this week.
RB
Star to Know: Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers (vs. ATL)
It took a bit of time, but Carolina Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart finally met his RB1 hype from the preseason.
Stewart was one of fantasy’s biggest duds through the first four weeks of the season, never posting more than seven fantasy points. There’s a reason he topped many buy-low lists, though, because Stewart has double digits in six of his last eight games.
A seventh is on the way thanks to a game against the Atlanta Falcons, a team coughing up the fifth-most points to backs.
The Falcons have allowed three touchdowns to backs over their last two outings so Stewart, with his offense touting a renewed focus on the run, should make it another as part of a big day.
Star to Bench: Chris Ivory, New York Jets (vs. TEN)
He might be the fifth-highest scorer at running back, but owners need to avoid Chris Ivory of the New York Jets this week.
Ivory has had an odd three weeks as of late, in which two of those he received 10 or fewer carries, resulting in three and four fantasy points with a 15-point outing in between.
Expect another down outing from Ivory, who next has to deal with a Tennessee Titans defense allowing the fifth-fewest points to backs. Only two backfields out of the last six have managed double digits against the unit.
There’s always a chance Ivory hits such a status on his own, but a defensive game and recent usage doesn’t bode well for his chances.
WR
Star to Know: Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. IND)
This might be a thought going through some owner’s minds: Allen Robinson Week has come and gone.
Don’t fall into such a trap. Yes, Robinson exploded last weekend with 10 grabs for 153 yards and three scores, good for 33 points. Yes, he had only mustered 12 or fewer points in each of the four weeks before that and yes, in his first matchup against the Indianapolis Colts, Robinson mustered just eight points.
A few signs certainly point to Robinson struggling this weekend, if not for a general paranoia of his regressing back to the mean. But the Colts allow the third-most points to wideouts, and just last week permitted four scores and 57 points to Pittsburgh receivers.
Long story short—owners shouldn’t overthink this one, as odd as it might be to trust a member of the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Star to Bench: Jeremy Maclin, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. SD)
The fun ride is over for Kansas City Chiefs wideout Jeremy Maclin, though.
Maclin looked lost in the offense, going for single digits in six consecutive games before Week 12, where he posted 22 points and followed last weekend with 19.
Don’t expect it to continue. There’s a big difference from posting strong production against shaky Buffalo and Oakland secondaries to encountering the San Diego Chargers.
In fact, Maclin did that in Week 11 and managed just two points. The Chargers have a wealth of faults this year, but defending wideouts isn’t one of them because they allow the fifth-fewest points to the position.
As great as Maclin‘s turnaround has been for owners, he’ll head back in the other direction this week.
TE
Star to Know: Coby Fleener, Indianapolis Colts (at JAC)
It’s an odd week for tight end given matchups and injuries, but it seems Coby Fleener of the Indianapolis Colts is here to save the day.
Fleener has 10 total points over his last four outings and just two double-digit performances on the year, but this would be the weekend to put his consistent rough outings aside and get him in lineups.
Why? The Jaguars, of course, who allow the third-most points to the position. It just so happens one of Fleener‘s best performances came against these Jaguars back in Week 4 when he caught nine passes for 83 yards and a score, good for 14 points.
Similar production against a unit continuing to struggle wouldn’t be a shock.
Star to Bench: Jordan Reed, Washington (at CHI)
While he’s a top-seven scorer at the position, Washington’s Jordan Reed has been neither consistent enough or strong in tough matchups to trust this weekend.
Reed has three double-digits outings on the year, but all came against weak defenses against the position in games against Miami, Tampa Bay and New Orleans.
This week certainly isn’t a cupcake against the Chicago Bears, a team surrendering the fourth-fewest points to the position. The Bears have allowed just two touchdowns to tight ends this year and none since Week 6.
Reed’s quite the talent, but the Bears seem to have whatever it is that shuts down the best of the best on a week-to-week basis.
All scoring info courtesy of ESPN standard leagues, as is points-against info and ownership stats as of December 10. Statistics courtesy of ESPN.
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