Week 14 brings about the playoffs in most fantasy leagues, so every decision has significant ramifications.
The rankings below take into consideration matchups, injuries and who’s been hot lately. But it’s still a little early in the week to factor weather into the equation.
While these rankings are a good place to start, be sure to check in on any games potentially impacted by snow or rain. Cold-weather cities such as Cleveland, Green Bay, Denver and Chicago all host games this week, which could play a role in fantasy production.
Quarterbacks
For years, we’ve been able to trust the big names such as Tom Brady, Peyton Manning Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees at the top of the quarterback rankings. But their value has taken a significant hit this season due to a combination of injuries, age and inconsistency with their supporting casts.
As a result, you may be looking for some values late in the season at quarterback.
Jameis Winston has been predictably inconsistent as a rookie quarterback, but he offers intriguing upside this week, especially at his low price in daily leagues.
According to OddsShark.com, the Buccaneers game against the Saints has the highest over/under in Week 14, giving it the potential to turn into a shootout.
In just his second game as a pro, Winston scored 19.5 fantasy points against the Saints in Week 2, based on the DraftKings scoring system—and that was before Mike Evans had fully recovered from his early-season hamstring injury.
The Saints are surrendering a league-worst 22.4 fantasy points per game, according to RotoGrinders, which could allow for another big output from Winston.
One of the top quarterbacks to avoid this week is Carson Palmer, who goes up against the Vikings on Thursday night.
Palmer has scored at least 17 points in every game this season, so he’s still a must-start if you own him in season-long leagues. In daily leagues, however, he’s likely to disappoint against a tough Vikings defense.
Led by safety Harrison Smith, the Vikings are allowing just 15.4 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Running Backs
This is a tough week for running backs, as many of the most reliable options face the league’s top run defenses, such as Devonta Freeman against the Panthers and Adrian Peterson against the Cardinals.
Todd Gurley has been shut down for two consecutive weeks, but the Rams were forced to abandon the run against the Bengals and Cardinals early in both games.
The Rams parted ways with offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti on Monday and promoted tight ends coach Rob Boras. The changing of the guard bodes well for Gurley, as the easy solution to fixing the offense, at least in the short term, is to simply feed him the ball.
Lamar Miller benefited from a coaching change in Miami earlier this season, and similar expectations should be set for Gurley. Of course, it doesn’t hurt to have the Lions defense on the schedule for Sunday, either.
Another running back who gets a significant boost due to his opponent is Shaun Draughn.
The 49ers face the struggling Browns defense, which is allowing 22 points per game to opposing running backs this season.
Draughn, a former Brown, has been quietly productive in point-per-reception leagues since taking over for the injured Carlos Hyde. Draughn has posted double-digit points in four straight games, including a season-high 19.6 against the Bears in Week 13.
Wide Receivers
The usual suspects are at the top of the wide receivers board this week, but fantasy matchups are won by finding gems in the second and third tier.
Sammy Watkins has been on fire the past couple weeks with three touchdowns in his last two games, and he might be in line for another monster game against the Eagles.
Philadelphia’s defense can’t seem to stop anyone lately and is surrendering the most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers.
Over the past five weeks, opposing No. 1 receivers have scored a minimum of 16 points, which bodes well for Watkins’ ability to continue his late-season success.
Lower down the rankings, Travis Benjamin is another sleeper who could exceed expectations this week against the 49ers.
Benjamin has been inconsistent this season, but he has fared well with Johnny Manziel at quarterback. In Manziel‘s three starts, Benjamin has averaged 20.4 points per game.
The 49ers defense is allowing the fifth-most points per game to receivers, making Benjamin a low-cost, high-ceiling target this week in daily leagues, or a potential waiver pickup in season-long leagues.
Tight Ends
As has been the case all season, there’s very little to get excited about at the tight end position—especially after Olsen and Eifert.
Of the names in the second tier, Julius Thomas offers some upside due to the targets he’s been receiving in recent weeks.
Over the past three games, Blake Bortles has targeted Thomas 23 times, which has produced 16 receptions and three touchdowns.
In non-PPR leagues, however, Thomas is significantly less valuable. While he’s scored a touchdown in three straight games, his lack of red-zone targets indicates that streak isn’t likely to continue. According to Rotowire, Thomas has been targeted in the red zone just five times all season.
Scott Chandler is another low-cost option who could pay huge dividends, assuming Rob Gronkowski is ruled out once again this week.
Chandler received seven targets while replacing Gronk last week and has been a consistent red-zone option for Tom Brady. Eight of Chandler’s targets this season have been in the red zone, including five inside the 5-yard line.
Defensive/Special Teams
The Seahawks defense hasn’t quite lived up to expectations in real life, but their fantasy owners haven’t been disappointed.
Seattle’s unit has scored in double figures six times this season, including last week against the Vikings.
Whether it’s Matt Schaub or Jimmy Clausen at quarterback for the Ravens, it will be a great matchup for the Seahawks, with plenty of sacks and maybe even a pick-six.
On the cheaper end of the spectrum, the Giants have a favorable matchup against a struggling Dolphins offense.
New York could be a decent value play in daily leagues, or a strong waive-wire pickup in season-long leagues. The Giants defense is currently owned in just 14.2 percent of leagues on ESPN.
Kickers
Cincinnati’s Mike Nugent has quietly been among the most consistent fantasy kickers this season, and he should always be in consideration as one of the top options.
In ESPN standard leagues, Nugent has scored at least seven points in every game dating back to Week 5.
With two big-play offenses on the field in the Bengals/Steelers game, a shootout could break out, leading to a productive day for Nugent.
For similar reasons, Tampa Bay’s Connor Barth is another option worth considering.
With limited defense expected to be played in the Saints/Buccaneers game, Barth should get plenty of opportunities to put points on the board on Sunday.
All references to fantasy points are based on the Draft Kings scoring system, unless otherwise noted.
Follow Ryan McCrystal on Twitter for more NFL and college football analysis.
Read more Fantasy Football news on NerdyFootball.com
