A return to a normal Thursday slate in Week 13 provided one lesson for fantasy football owners—old reliable names have returned in full force for a critical stretch to end the fantasy season.
As expected, Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott led all Thursday scorers with 15 points. Impressive, considering he did the damage against a strong Minnesota Vikings defense.
Unlike Elliott, many recognizable names don’t guarantee production in bad matchups. As such, let’s take a look at matchup value comparisons and hit on some notable start-sit decisions.
Quarterback
Matchup to Exploit: Russell Wilson, SEA (vs. CAR)
Owners feeling burnt by Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson have every right, but they also have to look past it.
Wilson posted 10 points in a dud of a game in Week 12, but don’t let it overshadow the fact he scored 22 or more in three consecutive games previous to that. The only way for Wilson to go is back up in Week 13 against the Carolina Panthers.
Back in the comforts of home, Wilson gets to take on a Carolina Panthers defense allowing the sixth-most points to quarterbacks on average this year, with four passing scores allowed over their last two games.
Look for Wilson to get back on track against the once-proud defense.
Matchup to Avoid: Kirk Cousins, WAS (at ARI)
Washington Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins might have entered Week 13 as the eighth-best scorer at his position. Great, but owners can’t rely on him to get it done.
Cousins has to deal with the stingy Arizona Cardinals defense, the team allowing the third-fewest points to quarterbacks on average. He has to do it on the road, too, so the odds he becomes only the second quarterback to score more than 20 points against the unit seems unlikely.
While Cousins has scored 27 or more points in each of his past two outings, now isn’t the time of year to gamble on his keeping it going in a terrible situation.
At a strong streaming position, owners must look elsewhere.
Running Back
Matchup to Exploit: Spencer Ware, KC (at ATL)
Owners shouldn’t feel too down about Kansas City Chiefs running back Spencer Ware.
Ware only posted nine points in Week 12, which wasn’t too surprising given a tough matchup against the Denver Broncos.
The shackles come off in Week 13 against the Atlanta Falcons. Those Falcons allow the third-most points to opposing backs on average, and they allow 8.27 receptions to backs per game, according to Ware’s profile page at ESPN.com.
Given Ware’s versatile nature, he looks on track for one of the biggest days of the week.
Matchup to Avoid: Jay Ajayi, MIA (at BAL)
Everyone’s favorite unexpected workhorse, Jay Ajayi of the Miami Dolphins, only has two double-digit outings over his past four games.
Ajay doesn’t look like the huge surprise who rushed for 204 or more yards in back-to-back performances earlier this year. He is effective and seeing reliable usage, but the matchup has become more and more important by the week as defenses figure him out.
As such, Ajayi isn’t a player to trot out against the Baltimore Ravens, the defense surrendering the fewest points on average to backs.
Baltimore has allowed just three rushing touchdowns to backs all season and only two opposing backfields have scored more than 13 points. Asking Ajayi to do so doesn’t make sense.
Wide Receiver
Matchup to Exploit: DeAndre Hopkins, HOU (at GB)
It’s time for one more ride-or-die moment with Houston Texans receiver DeAndre Hopkins.
Hopkins has been a colossal dud this year thanks to miserable quarterback play. He has just three games of double digits and over his last three outings hasn’t topped more than seven points.
Alas, owners can’t ignore the fact the Green Bay Packers permit the third-most points to wideouts on average, with four sets of wideout corps hitting on three touchdowns against the unit.
Given the weakness, it is hard to imagine a player of Hopkins’ caliber struggling, even after such a disappointing season to date.
Matchup to Avoid: Allen Robinson, JAC (vs. DEN)
Unlike Hopkins, Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Allen Robinson doesn’t look like a guy ready to break free of a disappointing year.
Robinson has four double-digit outings, but he has lacked consistency on a week-to-week basis. After scoring 18 points in Week 10, he managed seven and two in subsequent performances.
Thanks to an encounter with the Broncos, Robinson might hit three dreadful outings in a row. Denver allows the fewest points to wideouts on average, with only six receiving touchdowns to receivers allowed.
A matchup-based play, now isn’t the time to trot Robinson into lineups.
Tight End
Matchup to Exploit: Coby Fleener, NO (vs. DET)
Most might not expect it, but New Orleans Saints tight end Coby Fleener ranks 11th in scoring at his position this year.
While certainly not the focal point of a Drew Brees-led passing attack, Fleener still plays in a Drew Brees-led passing attack. As such, he has scored five or more points in each of his last two outings, hinting at better production in a good matchup.
Fleener owners have this wish answered in Week 13 against the Detroit Lions. Not only should the matchup feature plenty of scoring, the Lions allow the most points to tight ends on average.
Matchup to Avoid: Greg Olsen, CAR (at SEA)
Though it isn’t much fun to bench a recognizable name such as Carolina tight end Greg Olsen, those pursuing a fantasy title know it is a necessary evil.
Olsen might rank second in scoring—but he has scored three, three and four points over his last three outings.
This downward spiral doesn’t figure to stop on the road against the Seahawks, who allow the eighth-fewest points to the position on average.
All but three opposing sets of tight ends haven’t breached double digits against Seattle. Olsen won’t make it four.
All scoring info and statistics courtesy of ESPN.com standard leagues, as are points-against info and ownership stats.
Follow Chris Roling (@Chris_Roling) on Twitter.
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