Fantasy football owners have made it through the roughest portions of the NFL‘s bye weeks only to confront the realities of a playoff push.
With only four teams on bye in Week 11, owners will miss names such as Julio Jones, Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers. Everyone else is fair game, but that doesn’t mean the start-sit decisions with star players come any easier.
Having more options isn’t always a good thing, as the chances of making a mistake go up, too. Then again, on a slate featuring the Pittsburgh Steelers beating up on the Cleveland Browns and the New England Patriots getting the San Francisco 49ers, among many other great matchups, what could go wrong?
Let’s take a look at matchup value comparisons and break down some of the bigger stars in tough spots.
Quarterback
Star to Know: Marcus Mariota, TEN (at IND)
Don’t look now, but Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota sits fourth in scoring at the position with 187 points.
Mariota is unstoppable most weeks from a fantasy perspective, though he does have a couple of single-point duds. Alas, over his past two games, he’s thrown seven total touchdowns while scoring 25 and 27 points.
Expect the quiet dominance (seriously, he’s owned in only 79.7 percent of leagues) to continue against the Indianapolis Colts, who allow the fourth-most points to quarterbacks on average.
Mariota tossed a pair of scores on the Colts in Week 7. He looks even better heading into a rematch.
Star to Sit: Jameis Winston, TB (at KC)
Things haven’t been as bright for Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston.
Winston has hit 20 or more points only four times this year, though he has managed 18 or more in each of his last three games.
Owners might want to look elsewhere for a streaming option in Week 11, though. The Kansas City Chiefs don’t boast an overly impressive rank because they have struggled against quarterbacks such as Ryan (twice) and Derek Carr. But the defense has held other quarterbacks to 13 or fewer points four times.
On the road, Winston isn’t worth the risk.
Running Back
Star to Know: Jonathan Stewart, CAR (vs. NO)
Believe it or not, Jonathan Stewart remains a strong fantasy contributor in the right situation.
Owners wouldn’t know it, though. The Carolina Panthers’ lead man missed a portion of the early season and then exploded for 20 or more points in two straight games. Now? Stewart has four and three points over his last two outings.
Clearly a matchup-based play, Stewart next gets the New Orleans Saints, who allow the fourth-most points to backs on average and have given up 11 rushing touchdowns.
Here is the kicker—one of Stewart’s two 20-point outings came in Week 6 against the Saints when he rushed 19 times for 85 yards and two scores. Now he gets to beat up on the familiar foe at home.
Star to Sit: Ryan Mathews, PHI (at SEA)
Ryan Mathews owners don’t want to get too excited.
Yes, the Philadelphia Eagles’ lead back torched the Atlanta Falcons in Week 10 on the way to 27 points.
But look at it in a different light—the outburst was Mathews’ first time going over 15 points this year. It also snapped a streak of four single-point outings in a row.
Now Mathews has to deal with the Seattle Seahawks. Granted, the unit has allowed four rushing scores over its last two games, but it seems like an anomaly more than anything considering it had allowed only two rushing scores all year before that.
Owners will hear a lot about Mathews’ Week 10 performance and the fact he has scored four rushing scores over his last three games. But a road contest in Seattle isn’t the time to trot him out.
Wide Receiver
Star to Know: Steve Smith Sr., BAL (at DAL)
Most might not expect Baltimore Ravens veteran wideout Steve Smith Sr. to make a list like this anymore.
Fair enough. Smith has just two double-digit outings on the year, one of which came last week when he caught five passes for 60 yards and a score, good for 12 points.
Owners can expect Smith to string together a couple of nice games thanks to a Week 11 dance against the Dallas Cowboys.
Dallas has allowed a touchdown to opposing wideouts in six games and running, with opposing corps tallying 26 or more points three times. More importantly, slot receivers like Smith have scored six times on Dallas this year.
With seven or more targets in four of his past five games and going against a defense that can’t stop his position, Smith classifies as a star to know at least once more.
Star to Sit: Ty Montgomery, GB (at WAS)
The ride has reached the last exit.
Green Bay Packers utility man Ty Montgomery was a fun add whose usage boomed into star territory. He’s sitting on a 66.6 ownership percentage, down a full 17 points from the week prior. Playing with Aaron Rodgers can do that to anyone.
Alas, Montgomery has missed practice time with an illness recently, per Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com. The Packers also got running back James Starks back from injury in Week 10. Starks not only took over the bulk of the carries in the backfield, but Montgomery received only two targets through the air.
A diminished role meets a bad matchup, too, considering the Washington Redskins have allowed only seven receiving touchdowns to wideouts this year, three of which came in a fluky Week 1 game.
It’s not wise to cut Montgomery yet given the injury woes in Green Bay, but he’s not a good play in Week 11.
Tight End
Star to Know: Tyler Eifert, CIN (vs. BUF)
Cincinnati Bengals tight end Tyler Eifert is the next player at his position to run roughshod on the Buffalo Bills.
Buffalo ranked well against tight ends until two weeks ago. Rob Gronkowski of the New England Patriots dropped 16 points on the unit in Week 8, and Seattle’s Jimmy Graham posted 22 the week after.
Now Eifert gets a turn. He’s back and healthy, having notched nine or more points in each of his last two games.
The owner of 17 targets over his last two games, Eifert can do major damage when featured so heavily—especially against a unit that doesn’t have the personnel to line up against top-flight tight ends.
Star to Sit: Dennis Pitta, BAL (at DAL)
Baltimore Ravens tight end Dennis Pitta often looks like a good option because he ranks second in targets among tight ends, according to ESPN.com. Indeed, over his past four outings, Pitta has 29 targets.
This is deceptive, though, as opportunity doesn’t equal production with Pitta. He has hit double digits only once, so owners who are looking for a recognizable name with high usage need to search elsewhere.
Pitta now has to deal with the aforementioned Cowboys. While Smith figures to run wild, the Cowboys haven’t allowed opposing tight ends to hit double digits since Week 3, which was also the last time the position scored on the Dallas defense.
One would think at some point the heavy usage will lead to a big day for Pitta. Owners just can’t bank on it happening in Week 11, though.
All scoring info and statistics courtesy of ESPN.com standard leagues, as are points-against info and ownership stats.
Follow Chris Roling (@Chris_Roling) on Twitter.
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