After Matt Cassel posted nearly 24 points this past week in NFL.com fantasy football leagues, forecasting how Week 10 will unfold is a somewhat precarious task.
A number of supposed fantasy studs, such as Peyton Manning, Marshawn Lynch, Jeremy Hill and Calvin Johnson, have underwhelmed this year, making each week more and more unpredictable. Just when you think you have everything under control, Aaron Rodgers throws for 77 yards against the Denver Broncos.
As a result, finding value in unexpected places can make the difference between winning and losing, which carries a more significant impact at this point in the season with the playoffs not too far in the offing.
Below, you’ll find rankings for each position in addition to a few stars who may disappoint and a handful of players who could exceed expectations.
Quarterbacks
Blake Bortles has generally been a steady fantasy option this year, coming in as the No. 9 quarterback on NFL.com. The Jacksonville Jaguars signal-caller has done more than enough to warrant low-end QB1 status, and he may even exceed that this weekend.
According to ESPN.com, only the New Orleans Saints are allowing more fantasy points on average to opposing quarterbacks than the Baltimore Ravens. In addition, the Ravens rank 30th in yards per attempt allowed (8.4), tied for 22nd in passing touchdowns allowed (16) and 29th in passing yards allowed (283.9).
Bortles has thrown 10 interceptions so far this year, which is a concern, but the likelihood he turns if over in Week 10 is mitigated somewhat by the fact Baltimore has intercepted just three passes through eight games.
In terms of matchups, the stars could hardly align better for Bortles.
Similarly, the few brave souls who have Kirk Cousins on their roster might be in luck this week as the Washington Redskins face off with the Saints, the worst pass defense team in the league through Week 8, according to Football Outsiders.
This is the same Saints defense that allowed Marcus Mariota to throw for 371 yards and four touchdowns in Week 9, while Brandon Weeden went a respectable 16-of-26 for 246 yards and a touchdown back on Oct. 4.
Cousins might be worthy of QB1 status if you’re scrambling to find a starter.
Running Backs
Before Le’Veon Bell returned in Week 3, DeAngelo Williams ran for 204 yards and three touchdowns on 41 carries. Then, after filling in for an injured Bell in Week 9, Williams again broke the century mark, rushing for 170 yards and two touchdowns in a 38-35 victory over the Oakland Raiders.
The 32-year-old is no longer the player who rushed for 1,515 yards and 18 touchdowns in 2008, but he’s still more than capable of breaking off a big run or two, per the NFL:
The Cleveland Browns are allowing a league-worst 147.6 yards a game on the ground. With Williams once again taking a starring role in the Pittsburgh Steelers backfield, it should be another big game from the 2009 Pro Bowler.
Like Williams, LeGarrette Blount could see his workload increase after an injury to a fellow running back. The New England Patriots placed Dion Lewis on season-ending injured reserve Monday, per Mike Reiss of ESPN.com.
“That’s my dog, man,” said Blount of Lewis, per ESPN’s Josina Anderson. “Don’t like to hear that. We’ll be straight.”
Even with a healthy Lewis, Blount was in store for a big day, as Pro Football Focus’ Evan Silva highlighted a key player along the New York Giants defensive line who will be absent:
The Patriots will likely use James White as a passing option out of the backfield, but that shouldn’t have a significant impact on Blount‘s value since he isn’t much of a pass-catcher anyway.
Wide Receiver
Although Antonio Brown is one of the best wide receivers in the league, even he will be impacted by the fact Landry Jones is throwing him passes, at least for the time being. Brown remains a must-start in any format, but don’t be surprised if he fails to crack the 100-yard mark for the fifth time this year.
Stefon Diggs‘ value is also somewhat in flux as Teddy Bridgewater recovers from the concussion he suffered against the St. Louis Rams.
ESPN.com’s Ben Goessling reported Bridgewater passed the first step in the NFL’s concussion protocol, but his status for Sunday’s game against the Oakland Raiders remains in doubt.
Diggs becomes a much less safe fantasy play with Shaun Hill under center, especially after he caught just five passes for 42 yards in Week 9. Nerdy Football’s Mike Freeman was among those burned by Diggs‘ four-game stretch of 419 yards and two TDs earlier in the year:
With a healthy Bridgewater, Diggs is a top-10 WR in Week 10, but that assessment changes if Hill is forced to take over instead.
Tight End
No skill position is more volatile this year than tight end. In the last few weeks, Owen Daniels, Garrett Celek, Jacob Tamme, Troy Niklas and Clive Walford have been among the highest-scoring fantasy TEs.
Unless you have Rob Gronkowski, Tyler Eifert, Greg Olsen or Gary Barnidge, you’re essentially left to hope your starter’s name comes up in the TE lottery.
A player not listed in the top 10 who could have a big week is Kyle Rudolph. The fifth-year tight end has registered little fantasy impact this year, in no small part because of the fact he is being asked more and more to help block opposing defensive ends and linebackers.
However, the Oakland Raiders are allowing the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, per ESPN.com. The Raiders also lack a dominant pass rush, thus opening Rudolph up to be more of a receiver Sunday.
If you’re looking for an emergency tight end off the waiver wire, Rudolph might be your guy.
Defense/Special Teams
Maybe the football gods are taking pity on the Cleveland Browns. Not only will the Steelers be without their starting running back, but their starting quarterback will likely miss Sunday’s game as well.
Bell was already ruled out for the season after suffering a knee injury on Nov. 1 against the Cincinnati Bengals. This past Sunday, Ben Roethlisberger exited an eventual win over the Raiders with a midfoot sprain, and he will be out for a few weeks, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
The Steelers still have Williams, Brown and Martavis Bryant, but the Browns defense’s job just got a lot easier with Pittsburgh down two of its biggest playmakers.
Kicker
According to TeamRankings.com, no team is better defensively in the red zone than the St. Louis Rams. The Rams are allowing the opposing team to find the end zone on just 35.3 percent of possessions inside the 20-yard line.
As long as the Chicago Bears are able to somewhat regularly cross the 50-yard line, Robbie Gould should have two or three field-goal opportunities, thus elevating his fantasy potential in Week 10.
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