Thursday saw the start of the 2016 NFL regular season with a Super Bowl rematch between the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos. That means it’s time to start worrying about your fantasy football roster.
Heading into the opening weekend, it would be ill-advised to make too many significant alterations to your roster. You drafted the players on your team for a reason, and give it some time before you begin tinkering too much.
Of course, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t attempt to exploit certain matchups and gamble on some players who could potentially exceed expectations Sunday.
Below are top-10 rankings for each fantasy positions, followed by fringe starters you should either insert into your lineup or consider benching.
Since the two teams have already played, members of the Panthers and Broncos are excluded from the rankings below, with Cam Newton, Greg Olsen and the teams’ defenses the biggest fantasy assets missing.
Quarterback
Start ‘Em: Blake Bortles, JAX (vs. Green Bay Packers)
It feels like Blake Bortles isn’t getting the respect he deserves. He finished fourth among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring on ESPN.com and NFL.com last season, and he’s surrounded by a number of talented young skill position players who are continuing to improve.
The Green Bay Packers don’t exactly present a favorable opponent for Bortles and the Jacksonville Jaguars. They finished sixth in passing DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) a year ago, per Football Outsiders.
Because of the strength in the Packers secondary, don’t count on Bortles to post massive numbers. But the Jaguars have one of fantasy’s elite wideouts, Allen Robinson, in addition to another 1,000-yard receiver in Allen Hurns.
At the very least, Bortles will deliver numbers befitting a low-end QB1.
Sit ‘Em: Dak Prescott, DAL (vs. New York Giants)
Some might be tempted to start Dak Prescott this week based on his strong preseason. Don’t do it.
Prescott played well in his three preseason games, throwing for 454 yards and five touchdowns. He’s playing behind a strong offensive line and has Dez Bryant, Jason Witten and Terrance Williams available in the passing game.
In time, Prescott may prove himself to be a viable fantasy commodity. Until that happens, don’t bank too much on the rookie QB. First-year passers don’t tend to be strong fantasy assets, at least outside of keeper leagues.
The New York Giants also made significant moves to strengthen their defense. They’ll have Olivier Vernon rushing off the edge alongside Jason Pierre-Paul and added Eli Apple and Janoris Jenkins to the secondary. While New York’s defense hasn’t become one of the league’s best overnight, it made a definite improvement in the offseason.
Running Back
Start ‘Em: Melvin Gordon, SD (at Kansas City Chiefs)
Fantasy owners who got burned by Melvin Gordon last year may be reticent about hitching their wagons to the San Diego Chargers running back, which is fair. Gordon was second in the league in fumbles (five), averaged 3.5 yards per carry and failed to score a touchdown.
His struggles weren’t all his fault, though. Football Outsiders ranked the Chargers 31st in run blocking last year. The unit isn’t demonstrably stronger, but signing Matt Slauson is a big upgrade at center and will help the line inside.
In February, Chargers offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt made it clear he wants to rely on the running game in 2016, which makes sense considering quarterback Philip Rivers is entering his age-35 season.
The Kansas City Chiefs had a stout run defense last year, and despite the absence of linebacker Justin Houston, yards won’t come easy for Gordon. While fantasy owners shouldn’t count on the second-year running back eclipsing the century mark, he should get enough carries to at least warrant RB2 status.
Sit ‘Em: Thomas Rawls, SEA (vs. Miami Dolphins)
Thomas Rawls was a major surprise for the Seattle Seahawks in 2015, running for 830 yards and four touchdowns. As NFL.com’s Michael Fabiano tweeted, the second-year running back could prove to be a steal in the leagues where he fell out of the middle rounds:
In Week 1, though, Rawls’ playing time will be limited as he continues to recover from the ankle injury that ended his rookie year. Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll admitted he will play it safe with Rawls to start the year, per Tony Drovetto of the team’s official website:
Just in the amount of plays. Just in the amount of plays. It’s the second preseason game for him if you look at it that way. We’re trying to take care of him as we’ve said all along and in any way that we can. So just going to watch and see how he handles it. That’s all. It’s just to see how he handles it.
Until Rawls is healthy enough to handle the majority of Seattle’s duties in the backfield, he should remain on your bench.
Wide Receiver
Start ‘Em: Tavon Austin, LA (at San Francisco 49ers)
At some point, Los Angeles Rams head coach Jeff Fisher has to find a way to maximize Tavon Austin’s unique skill set, right? Granted, almost everything Fisher has done as a coach is antithetical to a player like Austin.
At least Mike Groh, Los Angeles’ passing game coordinator and wide receivers coach, said the right thing about the 25-year-old, per The MMQB’s Robert Klemko: “He’s developing as a true wideout. I believe he’s becoming a threat as a receiver more than just a gadget guy. I’m excited about the skills he brings to this offense; he’s a touchdown waiting to happen. I know the headaches he causes defensive coordinators.”
In 2015, Austin set career highs in receptions (52) and carries (52), and he signed a four-year, $42 million deal with the team in the offseason. All of the signs are pointing to him having a bigger, more consistent role in the Rams offense.
In the event that happens, he’s worth inserting into your squad as a flex player at the very least.
Sit ‘Em: Larry Fitzgerald, ARI (vs. New England Patriots)
Whereas his days as a No. 1 wideout appeared to be nearing an end, Larry Fitzgerald had a resurgent 2015 season, catching 109 passes for 1,215 yards and nine touchdowns.
Expecting similar production in 2016 may be unrealistic.
For one, the Arizona Cardinals will likely want to give John Brown a bigger role in the passing game, which would come at the cost of Fitzgerald. In addition, a significant chunk of Fitzgerald’s fantasy output was limited to a three-week window last season.
Between Weeks 2, 3 and 10, the 33-year-old had 27 receptions, 376 yards and five touchdowns. In NFL.com standard leagues, those games accounted for 39.4 percent (67.6) of his overall point total (171.5).
Tight End
Start ‘Em: Julius Thomas, JAX (vs. Green Bay Packers)
Julius Thomas will never be the player he was with the Denver Broncos. In the Mile High City, he had the luxury of playing with one of the greatest quarterbacks ever at a time when he was still an elite quarterback.
There’s no question Thomas had an underwhelming first season in Jacksonville, catching 46 passes for 455 yards and four touchdowns. Of course, he averaged 0.3 more yards per game than he did in his 2014 Pro Bowl season.
Touchdowns will make or break Thomas’ fantasy value. He won’t register a high volume of receiving yards, but if he’s a consistent target in the red zone for Bortles, he’ll be a solid TE1 option.
Sit ‘Em: Martellus Bennett, NE (at Arizona Cardinals)
Martellus Bennett gives the New England Patriots a two-headed tight end monster. Fantasy owners looking to take advantage of Bennett partnering with Rob Gronkowski might wind up disappointed, though.
Jimmy Graham was seemingly the final piece of the puzzle for the Seahawks, and look how that has worked out.
A healthy Gronkowski is going to command a high number of targets in the passing game. Julian Edelman will likely be the No. 2 target as well, further limiting Bennett’s fantasy ceiling. Not to mention the 29-year-old is coming off a year in which he averaged 8.3 yards per reception (second-fewest of his career) and 39.9 yards per game, nearly 20 yards fewer than he posted in 2014.
As if that’s not enough, nobody knows what the Patriots passing game will look like with Jimmy Garoppolo filling in for Tom Brady.
Kicker
Defense/Special Teams
In general, little differentiates the top kickers and defenses from those lower down the pecking order.
Last year, the Denver Broncos were the top defense in NFL.com standard leagues, posting 175 points. The Washington Redskins finished 12th with 131 points. The difference averages out to under three points a week. At kicker, the difference between first (Stephen Gostkowski) and 12th (Mike Nugent) was a little over 2.5 points per week.
Compare that to quarterback, where Cam Newton’s 389.08 fantasy points were 45.38 points more than Tom Brady, who came in second (343.70).
All of that is to say don’t fret too much about which kicker and defense you’re starting in any given week, and that is particularly true in the opening week of the season.
Read more Fantasy Football news on NerdyFootball.com
