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Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 16: Advice for Unfavorable Fantasy Football Matchups

Fantasy Football
December 26, 2015

Sometimes the most unattractive lineups produce some of the best numbers.

Going into the meat of Week 16, fantasy football owners don’t have to look far for the perfect example. One week ago, Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger took on the Denver Broncos—still the defense allowing the fewest points on average to quarterbacks—and threw for a trio of scores with 23 points.

Similar options exist this weekend, though owners might have a tough time putting down the new toys to scoop up the shovel and unearth them. Let’s cut out the legwork below by lining up value comparisons at each spot and some of the most common iffy-matchup situations.

 

QB  

Matchup to Risk: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (at ARI)

Believe it or not, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been the most trustworthy option all season, hence his sitting sixth in scoring at quarterback.

Take last week. Rodgers mustered just 10 points in what should have been a pretty solid matchup against the Oakland Raiders.

Odds are, though, Rodgers won’t have a hard time producing against the Arizona Cardinals this weekend. The Cardinals rank among the elite against the position, but there’s been a certain weakness to the unit as of late, with Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Bradford combining to throw three touchdowns against the unit over the past two weeks.

In a game sure to feature plenty of offense, Rodgers stands as a safe play.

 

Matchup to Avoid: Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills (vs. DAL)

There was a time earlier this year that owners could throw Buffalo Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor into the fire without hesitation.

Taylor’s found some of the effectiveness again in recent weeks, posting 25 or more points in three of his last four outings.

The road gets tougher for Taylor this week, though. The Dallas Cowboys don’t have an elite defense by any means, but from a fantasy standpoint, they do well against quarterbacks, allowing the ninth-fewest points to the position.

Whatever it is, the Cowboys do it well. No opposing passer has posted more than 18 points against the unit since Week 5.

 

RB 

Matchup to Risk: Todd Gurley, St. Louis Rams (at SEA)

It wouldn’t be wise to ignore fantasy’s fourth-highest scoring back this weekend. 

It looks like a nightmare scenario for St. Louis Rams lead back Todd Gurley, who has to deal with the Seattle Seahawks for the first time.

Those Seahawks allow the fewest opposing points to running backs, having not coughed up double digits to an opposing backfield since Week 12. The unit’s last three opponents haven’t attempted more than 14 rushes apiece.

Fine, but Gurley doesn’t need a ton of chances to do major damage, as numbers from ESPN Stats and Info illustrate:

Most teams don’t have an excuse to run on Seattle. St. Louis does with the offense not having many other options. Remember, St. Louis beat Seattle once already this year. If the team’s to play spoiler and complete the season sweep, it’ll be on the shoulders of Gurley.

 

Matchup to Avoid: Matt Forte, Chicago Bears (at TB)

While never fun to slap a surefire stud who has performed for years and years on the bench, it’s the best course of action with the Chicago Bears’ Matt Forte this weekend. 

Forte just isn’t the bell cow back anymore thanks to the emergence of Jeremy Langford.

Case in point—last weekend, Forte took eight carries while Langford received 11. Granted he saw seven targets in the passing game to lead the team, but about 15 touches per game isn’t enough for owners to jump.

Especially not against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a defense allowing the seventh-fewest points to the position this year. It’s going to be a grind-it-out affair in Tampa with a low score this weekend, making a new committee-bound Forte one to avoid.

 

WR

Matchup to Risk: A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals (at DEN)

An owner’s first instinct would be to avoid Cincinnati Bengals wideout A.J. Green this weekend when his team takes on the Denver Broncos.

Much of this has to do with the fact Green will have backup AJ McCarron under center. Another part of it is the fact Green sat out most of last week’s game in San Francisco while resting a slight back issue (though there’s been no sign it will hamper him whatsoever). 

Most of it, though, has to deal with the Broncos, the team allowing the fewest points to wideouts, as hinted at in the intro.

But Pittsburgh wideouts dropped a 50-burger on the Steelers last week, and Green’s the top target in Cincinnati. He posted 18 or more points in three consecutive games and was well on his way after a 37-yard connection with McCarron in San Francisco before the coaches yanked him from the game in a blowout.

This one won’t be a blowout, so expect Green’s usual production.

 

Matchup to Avoid: Ted Ginn Jr., Carolina Panthers (at ATL)

Two schools of thought exist with streaking fantasy players.

One suggests jumping off board before the thing crashes. Another says to ride it until it does.

With Carolina Panthers wideout Ted Ginn Jr., it might be best to go ahead and jump.

Ginn’s been on fire as of late with 20 or more points in three consecutive outings with two touchdowns in each game. One of those outings came against the Atlanta Falcons.

Here’s the problem with Ginn’s rematch against the Falcons—tight end Greg Olsen left the first encounter and missed the second half. Olsen’s a full go this week and, generally speaking, Atlanta does quite well against wideouts, allowing the second-fewest points.

The Ginn train has to come off the rails at some point. It’s not fun, but owners have to gamble it does this weekend and find value elsewhere.

 

TE

Matchup to Risk: Jordan Reed, Washington (at PHI)

Washington tight end Jordan Reed has slapped himself into matchup-proof territory. 

Reed isn’t the most consistent player at the position, but few are outside of the monster in New England. Over the past few weeks Reed has mimicked Rob Gronkowski well, though, posting 18 or more points over his last two games.

Now Reed goes into a matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles, a defense allowing the second-fewest points to the position.

While it sounds dangerous, Philadelphia hasn’t faced a team that actually runs an offense through a tight end since facing New England in Week 13, where the defense gave up 12 points. Reed’s one of Washington’s main weapons, so expect a big day.

 

Matchup to Avoid: Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. CLE)

Usage makes Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce an iffy play each week. 

While a game against the Cleveland Browns sounds great, the Browns actually rank around the middle of the pack in terms of points allowed to tight ends.

In fact, the Browns haven’t given up double digits to sets of tight ends since Week 9 and have done so just four times on the season. Kelce has as many double-digit performances and is without one since Week 12.

Kelce won’t see enough vertical or end-zone usage to post good numbers this weekend.

 

All scoring info courtesy of ESPN standard leagues, as are points-against info and ownership stats as of December 26. Statistics courtesy of ESPN.com.

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