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Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 14: Debating Difficult Fantasy Football Lineup Decisions

Fantasy Football
December 12, 2015

The last thing a fantasy football owner wants to do this time of year is bench a star player. 

What fun is it navigating through the draft, trades, waiver wires and more only to sit, say, Arizona Cardinals wideout Larry Fitzgerald

Maybe when he scored just four points, as he did on the Week 14 edition of Thursday Night Football

Therein lies the dilemma for owners. It’s easy to get attached to players who helped one get to this point. But the volatile nature of fantasy says those same players can sink the ship on their lonesome if allowed to run wild.

Here’s a look at some of the week’s toughest decisions after value comparisons.

 

QB 

Start: Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins (vs. NYG)

To start or not to start Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill?

Tannehill has frustrated owners all season because the ability to be an elite scorer is there. But he has more than 20 points just three times and posted an embarrassing 86 passing yards and eight points last week against an exploitable Baltimore defense.

Owners need to have faith, though. Tannehill‘s at home this weekend against the New York Giants, the team allowing the fourth-most points to quarterbacks. Four of the last five sets of quarterbacks to encounter the unit have attempted 36 or more passes.

Given the volume, expect a big bounce-back game.

 

Sit: Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders (at DEN)

It’s never easy to sit a top-10 scorer at the position, but Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr might be in the worst situation of his season to date.

Not only did Carr post just 13 points last time out and all of six points in Week 11, but now he has to pay a visit to the Denver Broncos. 

Those familiar with either party have alarm bells ringing. Denver allows the fewest points to quarterbacks this year, with just five sets of opposing passers actually reaching double digits against the unit.

Carr wasn’t one of those in Week 5, where he threw a score but lost an interception and a fumble to land at nine points. Little has changed to suggest this week will be much different.

 

RB

Start: DeAngelo Williams, Pittsburgh Steelers (at CIN)

It’s almost a knee-jerk reaction to throw a running back on the bench when he faces the Cincinnati Bengals and call it a day. 

DeAngelo Williams would like to have a word with those considering it. Williams is quietly a top-10 scorer, and in his first matchup against the Bengals, he managed nine carries for 71 yards.

Doesn’t sound like much, right? Consider that’s the week the Pittsburgh Steelers lost Le’Veon Bell. Had Williams seen the workload on his own, it probably would have been quite the impressive line. 

Williams has 14 or more points in three of his last four with a high of 36. The Bengals rank well against backs, but Williams has already shown he can produce against the unit.

 

Sit: Javorius Allen, Baltimore Ravens (vs. SEA)

Among the list of not-fun things to do is sit one of fantasy’s hottest commodities around this time of year. 

Too bad, though, as Baltimore Ravens running back Javorius Allen has a nightmare matchup this weekend against the Seattle Seahawks.

Allen has been great in spot duty with 10, 13 and 22 points. But this is Allen’s toughest test of the season, and maybe as a pro. Seattle surrenders the fewest points to backs on the year, and just five opposing backfields have combined for double digits.

This is a Seattle unit that held Matt Forte to 74 rushing yards and Adrian Peterson to 69. Allen won’t fare much better, if at all.

 

WR

Start: Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. NO)

Everybody is a viable start against the New Orleans Saints. 

Even Vincent Jackson.

Owners might scoff at Jackson, who has just three double-digits outings on the year and sits behind Mike Evans and Austin Seferian-Jenkins on the totem pole.

But this is the Saints defense, a unit allowing the 10th-most points to the position, with 35 coughed up last week to a run-first Carolina team. Three sets of wideouts have hit the 35-point mark or higher against the unit.

Jackson seems to be coming on in the offense as of late, too, having totaled seven or more points in each of his last three games. Expect a fourth with a little extra thanks to the matchup.

 

Sit: Brandon LaFell, New England Patriots (at HOU)

It’s time to throw in the towel on Brandon LaFell, folks.

The New England Patriots being the team with Tom Brady and dealing with so many injuries figured to produce a fantasy start in LaFell as of late.

Instead, the receiver is missing in action, having hit 10 or more points just once. Despite eight or more targets over his past three games, LaFell has not scored more than six points. Last week was an especially juicy matchup against an iffy Philadelphia Eagles defense, but he mustered just two points.

The above makes LaFell a no-fly zone against the Houston Texans, the team allowing the 10th-fewest points to the position.

 

TE

Start: Zach Miller, Chicago Bears (vs. WAS)

Sometimes an unfortunate injury is the opening owners need to strike gold this time of year. 

This might be the case with Chicago Bears tight end Zach Miller, who will play in place of Martellus Bennett, whom the team sent to injured reserve.

Miller’s come on as of late, with a season-best performance in Week 10 with five grabs for 10 yards and two scores for 22 points. He’s been spotty since with Bennett still in the lineup, but the outburst showed what he can do when he takes a prominent role—which he’ll do moving forward.

Washington isn’t a slouch against tight ends, but Miller can and will produce with a solid floor against any defense given the offense’s habit of leaning on the position.

 

Sit: Richard Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (vs. DAL)

Mr. Hail Mary himself doesn’t look like such a great play this week. 

Green Bay Packers tight end Richard Rodgers remains on the minds of most football fans for his epic last-second touchdown grab to upend the Detroit Lions while giving owners 20 points.

But the rarity of the performance isn’t something to gloss over. It was one of just four double-digit outings for Rodgers this year, who in the three games before that had totaled 12 points.

Rodgers just isn’t consistent enough to trust this time of year, especially against a Dallas Cowboys defense allowing the ninth-fewest points to the position with no allowances of double digits since Week 8, which was just one of two occurrences.

 

All scoring info is courtesy of ESPN standard leagues, as are points-against info and ownership stats as of December 12. Statistics are courtesy of ESPN.

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