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Hamstring injury a concern for Julio Jones

Fantasy Football, NFL News
October 11, 2015
InjuryQuestionable but expected to play

Falcons WR Julio Jones, listed as questionable due to hamstring, is expected to play; but his hamstring issues are a concern to Falcons. (Adam Schefter on Twitter)

Nerdy Football Analysis: This is a concern for Julio owners but not enough to leave him out of lineups. He has a plus matchup with the Redskins without both cornerbacks Chris Culliver (knee) and DeAngelo Hall (toe).

TE Julius Thomas expected to play

Fantasy Football, NFL News
October 11, 2015
InjuryWon’t be limited

After missing first four games with thumb injury, Jacksonville TE Julius Thomas will make Jaguars’ debut today; not expected to be limited. (Adam Schefter on Twitter)

Nerdy Football Analysis: Thomas was expected to sit today so this news is somewhat of a surprise. Thomas is a reasonable low TE1 option even though the Buccaneers have given up the fifth fewest fantasy points to tight ends.

Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 5: Final Lineup Advice for Fantasy Football Owners

Fantasy Football
October 11, 2015

Another Sunday of NFL football is upon is and it’s time to make your last-minute fantasy football lineup decisions.

A quarter of the way into the season, injuries are starting to play a major role in fantasy decisions. If you’re looking to fill in some slots, there are a number of slightly off-the-radar players featured in the charts below who could be nice additions to your lineup.

Here’s a look at some key players you may want to start or sit for Week 5.

Start: Sam Bradford, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. NO)

If you own Bradford in a season-long league, you’ve been disappointed and may have even dropped him already. But now is the time to get back on the bandwagon, at least for one week.

It’s taken some time for Bradford to get comfortable in Chip Kelly’s offense which, in hindsight, probably should have been expected. After all, it’s his first year in a new system that he joined after sitting out an entire season due to injury.

According to Jeff McLane of the Philadelphia Inquirer, Bradford attempted just seven passes at least 20 yards down the field through his first three games but was 4-of-8 when throwing down the field last week against the Redskins.

The Saints give Bradford another favorable opponent for racking up fantasy points. According to RotoGrinders, New Orleans is surrendering the third most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks based on the DraftKings scoring system.

Sit: Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders (vs. DEN)

Thanks to his connection with rookie Amari Cooper, Carr has posted a few fantasy gems already this season and has thrown for multiple touchdowns in each of his past three games.

This week’s matchup against the Broncos, however, is likely to be a tough one for Carr.

According to RotoGrinders, the Broncos have been the stingiest defense against opposing quarterbacks based on the DraftKings scoring system.

This is likely to be a low-scoring game for the Raiders, and while Carr may sneak in a touchdown, his ceiling is low due to the Broncos’ dominant defense.

Start: Matt Jones, Washington Redskins (vs. ATL)

Jones isn’t an elite play this week, but if you’re looking for a touchdown vulture this is a great matchup for the Washington back.

Over the past three weeks, Jones has four rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line compared to zero for Alfred Morris, according to Rotowire.

Jones is going up against the Falcons defense, which has been torched on the ground this season.

According to RotoGrinders, the Falcons are allowing an average of just over 40 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. Obviously some of those points will be shared with Morris, but Jones is a good bet to find his way into the end zone this week.

Sit: Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati Bengals (vs SEA)

While sharing carries with Giovani Bernard, Hill has been the Bengals’ red-zone running back.

According to Rotowire, eight of Hill’s 21 carries the past two weeks have come inside the opponent’s 20-yard line.

Those numbers bode well for Hill to continue to fulfill his role as a touchdown vulture this season, but the Seahawks might be the toughest matchup he’ll face all season.

Not only are the Seahawks a tough team to run against in the red zone, they don’t even let opponents get there. According to NFLSavant.com, Seattle’s opponents have only run nine rushing plays inside the red zone and only two inside the 5-yard line.

Start: Julian Edelman, New England Patriots (vs. DAL)

Edelmen has been overshadowed by Rob Gronkowski in terms of headlines, but he’s quietly been a fantasy superstar.

When not throwing to Gronk, Edelman has been the overwhelming favorite among Tom Brady’s weapons, hauling in at least eight catches in all three of the Patriots’ games this season.

Edelman is particularly valuable for his usage in the red zone.

While he has just two touchdowns, Edelman is tied for 13th in the league with seven red-zone targets this season, according to NFLSavant.com.

Any receiver averaging two red-zone targets per game is a must-start and always a candidate for a monster game if those targets reach the end zone.

Sit: Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. JAC)

At some point Evans is going to get on the same page as Jameis Winston and have a breakout game, but it appears as though Vincent Jackson has a better connection with the rookie quarterback so far.

Evans emerged as a fantasy superstar last last season due to his red-zone usage. According to NFLSavant.com, Evans had eight red-zone receptions in Tampa Bay’s final four games in 2014. But Winston has targeted him just three times in the red zone this season, compared to 10 for Jackson.

Excluding the debacle against New England in which they allowed 51 points, the Jaguars defense has been stout this season.

Against the Panthers, Colts and Dolphins, the Jaguars allowed just one touchdown to a wide receiver (Jerricho Cotchery, in Week 1 vs. Carolina).

Start: Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. SD)

Miller hasn’t put up huge stats, but he’s getting the opportunities which could lead to a big game in the near future.

Through the first four weeks, Miller has received seven red-zone targets, according to Rotowire, including four inside the 10-yard line.

While he only has one touchdown to his credit, it’s only a matter of time before Miller has a breakout game.

To further boost Miller’s value, Martavis Bryant is unlikely to suit up for the Steelers, according to Michael Fabiano of NFL.com.

With red-zone targets rivaling Gronkowski (also seven targets this season), Miller is a safe play if you don’t have one of the elite tight ends on your roster.

Sit: Gary Barnidge, Cleveland Browns (vs. BAL)

Barnidge has been among the best fantasy tight ends in the league the past two weeks with six receptions and a touchdown in each contest.

Given his long track record as a non-factor in fantasy, it’s hard not to write this off as a random spike in production.

But if you were starting to buy in to Barnidge‘s role in the Browns offense, stay away from him this week against Baltimore.

According to RotoGrinders, the Ravens have been the toughest defense for opposing tight ends this season, yielding just 3.7 points per game based on the DraftKings scoring system.

In their past two games against AFC North rivals, the Ravens have held Tyler Eifert and Heath Miller to a combined one catch for one yard.

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Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 5: Rounding Up Latest Expert Advice on the Web

Fantasy Football
October 10, 2015

One can look at the state of fantasy football in one of two ways: much easier than past years or much more difficult.

The presence of experts around the globe using social media and traditional means to help owners plays a major factor in this. When it comes to something like daily fantasy sports, so many knowledgeable sources can make it harder to stand out.

In traditional leagues, though, the presence of so many voices helps owners make tough decisions. This logic reigns true as owners head into Week 5.

Below, let’s round up some of the top voices from the industry and analyze some of their most interesting verdicts as it pertains to Week 5 start ’em, sit ’em scenarios.

JJ Zachariason, numberFire

Notable Start: Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears (at KC)

JJ Zachariason of numberFire wrote the book titled The Late Round Quarterback, so it’s clear he knows a thing or two about how and when to find value when it comes to the players who line up under center.

This weekend, Zachariason likes Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs. It’s certainly a contrarian play, but it’s not hard to see why: Cutler posted 17 points last week in a surprise appearance and did so without Alshon Jeffery.

Jeffery or not this week, Cutler’s going to post similar numbers. The Chiefs allow the most points to quarterbacks on average. Many figured the return of Sean Smith last week would help, but instead, the defense still allowed 321 yards and a score to Andy Dalton.

As an underdog, Cutler’s going to throw a lot against a porous defense.

Notable Sit: Gary Barnidge, TE, Cleveland Browns (at BAL)

Owners have every right to be high on Cleveland Browns tight end Gary Barnidge.

It turned out Barnidge‘s 16-point outburst in Week 3 wasn’t just a fluke against the iffy Oakland Raiders, because he followed in the week after with six more grabs, another score and 13 points.

Despite the obvious role in Cleveland’s offense, Zachariason suggests owners fade the trendy pick thanks to the matchup:

But Barnidge isn’t in a great spot in Week 5. While Baltimore’s been porous against the pass this year, they’ve actually defended the tight end better than any team in football. Heath Miller caught just one pass against them last week, Tyler Eifert put together a goose egg (thanks to some penalties, to be transparent) the week before, and in Week 1, Denver’s tight ends caught just two passes for five yards.

For those counting, the Baltimore Ravens give up the fewest points per game to tight ends this year. In total, the unit has allowed eight catches and one point.

Nick Mensio, Rotoworld

Notable Start: Sam Bradford, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. NO)

Was a 23-point outburst from Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Sam Bradford a sign of things to come?

Rotoworld‘s Nick Mensio thinks so, crediting the favorable matchup for the starting nod: “He now gets a Saints pass defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Bradford and the Eagles are also at home. New Orleans is allowing 9.77 YPA and has yet to pick off a pass.”

It’s hard to argue. Bradford has two outings in single digits this year, but it’s clear the matchup and coach Chip Kelly’s willingness to change what doesn’t work will have an impact on Bradford’s play.

Through four games, the Saints have allowed 25, 18, 29 and 13 points. In what should be a shootout, Bradford at home looks impossible to ignore after a shaky start.

Notable Sit: Jeremy Hill, RB, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. SEA)

Here’s an idea owners who took a high gamble on Jeremy Hill won’t like: he needs to ride the pine in Week 5.

Again, it’s hard to argue. Hill put up 24 points last week, but only because he received the ball in short-yardage scenarios and turned them into three touchdowns. Carrying the ball just nine times while complement Giovani Bernard sees 13 carries is never a good sign.

To make matters worse, Bernard has carried the ball more than Hill in three consecutive games. Cincinnati has fully switched to a committee approach without warning, which crushes owners who took Hill in the first round of drafts.

As Mensio notes, a matchup against the Seattle Seahawks isn’t favorable either way. The unit allows the second-fewest points to backs so far, has yet to surrender a touchdown or give up a double-digit outing to an entire backfield.

Jamey Eisenberg, CBS Sports

Notable Start: Terrance Williams, WR, Dallas Cowboys (vs. NE)

The Dallas Cowboys, at least at face value, look like a fantasy wasteland without Tony Romo and Dez Bryant.

Owners might flock to the idea of new No. 1 wideout Terrance Williams, though, and it’s something CBS Sports’ Jamey Eisenberg encourages due to opportunities and the matchup:

He’s played three games since Dez Bryant (foot) got hurt, and he’s responded with two touchdowns in those outings. He’s also had at least seven targets in three games this year, and the Patriots have allowed four receivers to catch a touchdown with at least 60 receiving yards.

On paper, Dallas figures to get blown out of the water by the New England Patriots. But the usage for Williams is there and he has two double-digit outings in three weeks, although the performance in the middle was a fat goose egg.

Still, through three games, New England surrenders the fourth-most points to wideouts. Even Buffalo and Jacksonville receivers found room for 22 or more points, so Williams should produce respectable numbers.

Notable Sit: Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland Raiders (vs. DEN)

There’s no debate Oakland’s Amari Cooper is a WR1 this year—but only when the matchup is right.

As Eisenberg notes, the Denver Broncos tout an elite defense in all facets this year. The unit has allowed the second-fewest points to wideouts despite matchups against Steve Smith, Jeremy Maclin and Calvin Johnson.

The way Cooper has exploded out of the gates as a rookie, he’s on par with all of those names from a fantasy standpoint. He has three consecutive trips to double digits when quarterback Derek Carr is healthy for a full game.

Home or not, though, Eisenberg and most will always weigh in favor of an elite defense against a rookie. Owners should, too.

All scoring info courtesy of ESPN standard leagues, as is points-against info and ownership stats as of October 10. Statistics courtesy of ESPN.com. Miami, Minnesota, Carolina and the New York Jets are on bye.

Follow Chris_Roling on Twitter

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NFL Predictions Week 5: Fantasy Guide, Odds Projections and Expert Tips

Fantasy Football
October 10, 2015

No matter how hard everyone tries, nobody will ever accurately project every significant fantasy football outcome.

Only severely desperate managers started Andre Johnson on Thursday night. Although a popular choice entering 2015, the veteran wide receiver worked his way out of all starting lineups—and several rosters—with consecutive catchless outings.

So of course he recorded 77 yards and two touchdowns with Matt Hasselbeck starting over Andrew Luck.

Johnson entered Week 5 as the No. 57-ranked wide receiver on FantasyPros, which compiles consensus rankings among several participating experts. Anyone bragging about starting the Indianapolis Colts veteran probably hadn’t touched their lineup since Week 2. Or they bought into a revenge-game narrative against the Houston Texans that luckily worked out.

There are no sure things, and somebody few analysts like will probably explode this weekend. Yet it’s still smart to research as many informed opinions as possible to make the most educated guesses. Let’s use FantasyPros’ consensus rankings to see how fantasy gurus perceive certain Week 5 options.

Colin Kaepernick, QB, San Francisco 49ers

Consensus Rank: No. 24 QB

The San Francisco 49ers will face the New York Giants, who have surrendered more passing yards than anyone this season. Matchup aside, the experts still detest Colin Kaepernick.

It takes a special kind of bad for everyone to deem someone unplayable regardless of the opponent. Through four games, Kaepernick has tossed two touchdowns and five interceptions, averaging 6.27 yards per pass attempt. Not even his 48.8 rushing yards per game can cover up his atrocious passing production.

He enters the week ranked No. 33 in quarterback rating, creating doubts of whether he’ll remain San Francisco’s starter all year. He shrugged off such speculation to ESPN.com’s Paul Gutierrez.

“I don’t play for job security,” Kaepernick said Wednesday. “Whether football is here or not, I will be fine. I go out; I play to win. I’m not worried about job security when I step in this building.”

While the Giants have coughed up plenty of yards, they have only permitted six passing touchdowns, while grasping five picks. As a result, they rate No. 20 in ESPN.com fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

New York also boasts the NFL‘s best run defense, which means the 49ers could struggle to get Carlos Hyde back on track. This helps explain why only two analysts perceive Kaepernick as a top-15 option this week. The consensus even prefers Josh McCown and Michael Vick.

Dion Lewis, RB, New England Patriots

Consensus Rank: No. 10 RB

After treating him with skepticism for weeks, Dion Lewis has hurdled over fears associated with playing running back for the New England Patriots.

The 25-year-old has made the most of his 15 touches per game, accruing 325 total yards and two touchdowns through three contests. When he fumbled in consecutive weeks, Bill Belichick uncharacteristically stood by his side. New England again showed its commitment to Lewis by signing him to a contract extension, as reported on Thursday by ESPN’s Field Yates:

Don’t panic about LeGarrette Blount scoring three touchdowns against the Jacksonville Jaguars. They came at the back end of a 51-17 victory, during which Lewis compiled 67 yards and a goal-line score. He doesn’t hold a monopoly on the team’s backfield touches, but he’ll get enough looks in a prolific offense to flourish as a starting fantasy back.

Originally viewed as an exclusive point-per-reception (PPR) choice, Lewis places No. 10 in FantasyPros’ standard-scoring rankings. Rotoworld’s Nick Mensio laid out his reasons for liking Lewis against the Dallas Cowboys:

Lewis dominated snaps in the first half of the Patriots’ last game, a Week 3 win over the Jaguars, before giving way to LeGarrette Blount when the game was already well in hand. Lewis punched a touchdown in from eight yards out against Jacksonville and is tied for the league lead in targets per game among running backs at six. He’s been a PPR machine for New England and is even returning value in standard formats. The Patriots have the highest team total of Week 5 at 29 points. Dallas has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including the fourth-most catches for the second-most yards to the position.

The Cowboys have relinquished eight receptions and 24 fantasy points per game to running backs, per ESPN.com. This bout could unfold similarly to Week 3, with Lewis gobbling up fantasy points early before Blount hammers home a lopsided victory.

Allen Hurns, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Consensus Rank: No. 23 WR

Could it be? After years of agony, the Jaguars finally have useful skill-position players. Heading into Week 5’s inner-state clash with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, two wide receivers are seeded prominently inside the position.

Despite an inconsistent start, Allen Robinson draws a No. 16 ranking among wideouts and is slotted as high as No. 6. Another Allen, however, leads the team in catches. After reeling in 11-of-15 targets against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4, Allen Hurns has a club-high 22 catches along with touchdowns in back-to-back weeks.

The 23-year-old should now be owned in all leagues, but those new investors must decide if he’s worth starting at Tampa Bay. FantasyPros’ No. 23 ranking depicts him as a high-end No. 3 receiver or flex option in standard leagues.

The Buccaneers stink, but they have allowed only 185.5 passing yards per contest, one total yard fewer than the NFL-best Denver Broncos.

One game doesn’t cement Hurns as Blake Bortles’ new go-to target, so the pundits are overreacting a tad to one big outing. He’s usable in the right circumstances, but Kendall Wright, Brandin Cooks and Leonard Hankerson are preferable plays lower in the rankings.

Note: All rankings obtained from FantasyPros.

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