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Fantasy Football

East Notes: Cowboys, Wilkerson, Pouncey

Fantasy Football
December 23, 2015

The Cowboys‘ 2015 season was derailed by multiple collarbone injuries to quarterback Tony Romo, with the team struggling to win even a single game in his absence. According to Jason Cole of Nerdy Football (video link), there are members of the Cowboys organization who want to avoid risking that scenario again in 2016 by selecting a quarterback early in this year’s draft.

Drafting a quarterback early would give the club a more viable backup option in the short term, and would potentially provide a long-term replacement for Romo. However, Cole adds that owner Jerry Jones may be more inclined to use the team’s top-10 pick on a player at another position that could help the team return to contention immediately. Considering Jones said earlier this season that he thinks Romo still has four or five years left in him, that’s not a real surprise — I’m not sure I believe the 35-year-old can play that long, but if Jones believes it, there’s no reason he’d feel the need to draft Romo’s replacement yet.

Here are a few more items from around the NFL’s East divisions:

  • Noting that rumors of a potential contract extension have died down within the last few weeks, Darin Gantt of Pro Football Talk wonders if Jones’ comments this week about the Cowboys‘ disappointing pass rush indicate “some degree of buyer’s remorse” on Greg Hardy.
  • Muhammad Wilkerson has had a great season, and he’ll get paid at some point, but given the other talent they have on their defensive line, the Jets don’t necessarily be the team that gives him a long-term deal, according to Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News, who suggests once again that a tag-and-trade approach might work best for New York.
  • Center Mike Pouncey was the only Dolphin selected as a Pro Bowler on Tuesday night, and while it’s not clear yet whether he’ll be able to finish the season and play in the Pro Bowl, he at least won’t require surgery on his injured left foot. Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald tweets that Pouncey sprained his foot and ankle, and is currently wearing a boot on that foot.
  • Addressing a Tuesday report that suggested the Eagles were considering shutting down Bennie Logan for the season due to a calf injury, head coach Chip Kelly denied that, indicating that the defensive tackle is day to day (Twitter link).

NFL Pro Bowlers In Contract Years

Fantasy Football
December 23, 2015

The NFL announced its Pro Bowlers for the 2015 season on Tuesday night, and while those rosters will certainly undergo some changes in the coming weeks – as players with injuries or on Super Bowl teams bow out and are replaced by alternates – it’s worth noting that several players in this initial crop are in contract years, and will be eligible for free agency this winter.

Currently, there are eight players in contract years among the Pro Bowlers, and not all of them are players you might expect. When we ranked the top free agents of 2016 earlier this month, we placed Bears wideout Alshon Jeffery second overall, but Jeffery didn’t get a Pro Bowl nod, partly due to the injuries that have slowed him down this season, and partly due to the star-studded group of receivers he was up against.

Similarly, our list of this offseason’s top 10 potential free agents included a pair of left tackles, Russell Okung of the Seahawks and Cordy Glenn of the Bills. However, given the strong group of left tackles that are locked up to long-term deals – including Tyron Smith (Cowboys), Jason Peters (Eagles), Joe Thomas (Browns), and others – neither Okung nor Glenn could crack the initial Pro Bowl roster.

Here are the eight potential free agents who earned Pro Bowl berths:

  • Eric Berry, S (Chiefs)
  • Doug Martin, RB (Buccaneers)
  • Von Miller, OLB (Broncos)
  • Reggie Nelson, S (Bengals)
  • Josh Norman, CB (Panthers)
  • Mike Tolbert, FB (Panthers)
  • Muhammad Wilkerson, DL (Jets)
  • Charles Woodson, S (Raiders)

Berry, Miller, Norman, and Wilkerson earned spots on our top-10 list, and each of those four standout players should be in line for either the franchise tag or a lucrative long-term contract. However, the extension cases for the other four players on this list aren’t quite to cut-and-dried.

Woodson, of course, has an expiring contract, but isn’t expected to sign another one, having announced earlier this week that he’ll retire after the season. That takes him out of the extension equation entirely.

Martin is having an excellent bounce-back season in Tampa Bay, and is the most logical candidate to receive the biggest free agent deal for a running back this offseason. As we saw last winter though, not many running backs sign massive free agent contracts, and 2015’s biggest deal – DeMarco Murray‘s – won’t exactly encourage teams to invest heavily at the position. So there’s a ceiling on how much Martin will earn this winter, despite his Pro Bowl berth.

Nelson and Tolbert are interesting cases. Nelson’s counting stats (an NFL-best eight interceptions) and Pro Football Focus grades (10th among safeties) suggest he’s had a very strong year, but he’ll also be entering his age-33 season, so it’s fair to question whether he’s deserving of a contract in the range of the ones that Berry and perhaps Eric Weddle will sign.

As for Tolbert, his Pro Bowl nod comes at one of the league’s least-valued positions, and he’s also now on the wrong side of 30, which is generally bad news for running backs. I expect he’ll draw interest from plenty of teams if the Panthers don’t lock him up, but as a 30-year-old fullback, his earning potential is limited.

One more player worth mentioning is Browns center Alex Mack. Technically, Mack still has three years remaining on his contract, but he’ll have the opportunity to opt out this winter, and coming off a Pro Bowl season, there’s a good chance he’ll take advantage of that option.

Ultimately, these eight players – plus Mack – aren’t likely to get a huge boost to their annual salaries on their next contracts simply because they made the Pro Bowl. In fact, Tuesday’s Pro Bowl announcement may very well have a more tangible impact on players with Pro Bowl bonuses in their current contracts.

Still, you can bet that the representatives for these potential free agents will be sure to point to this year’s Pro Bowl roster to help make their case that their clients are among the best players in the NFL at their respective positions.

Browns Place Andrew Hawkins On IR

Fantasy Football
December 23, 2015

The 2015 season has officially come to an end for Browns wide receiver Andrew Hawkins, who was placed on injured reserve today by the team, according to a press release. Cleveland signed linebacker Jayson DiManche from its practice squad to replace Hawkins on the 53-man roster.

Hawkins, 29, has missed the Browns’ last four games due to a concussion, and hadn’t been expected to return to the field this season. In the eight games he played – and started – for Cleveland, he recorded 27 catches on 43 targets for 276 yards.

Because Hawkins was a restricted free agent when he signed an offer sheet with the Browns, the team will have him at a bargain price for the next two seasons. The front-loaded offer Cleveland made to discourage the Bengals from matching included cap hits of $5.8MM in 2014 and $5MM in 2015, but only $1MM in 2016 and $1.8MM in 2017, so the veteran wideout likely won’t be going anywhere anytime soon.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Rankings: Top Players, Sleepers and Positional Guide

Fantasy Football
December 23, 2015

Week 16 won’t have any issues continuing the trend of explosive outings from top players.

Just take a quick gander at the holiday schedule. Wide receiver Jeremy Maclin and the Kansas City Chiefs get to beat up on the Cleveland Browns. The Carolina Panthers’ Cam Newton gets to torch the Atlanta Falcons again. Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers get to stomp on the Baltimore Ravens. Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks get to trounce the St. Louis Rams.

If last weekend was one of the most explosive weeks for fantasy football in recent memory, Week 16 has the potential to top it.

To make sense of the wealth of options available to owners still alive in the hunt, let’s break down each position into rankings below.

 

Week 16 Schedule

 

Quarterbacks

Roethlisberger got a mention in the intro for good reason.

There are plenty of options at quarterback this week, but Big Ben gets the nod as the top-ranked player going into a game against the woeful Baltimore Ravens.

Big Ben went off for 23 points this past weekend against a strong Denver defense, giving him 21 or more points in five of his last six outings. He missed the team’s first encounter with the Ravens earlier this year, but he shouldn’t have any problems making up the difference.

Those Ravens allow the fifth-most points to quarterbacks this year and have given up 12 touchdowns over their last six games. Big Ben looks like another 21-point player or more.   

Those on the hunt for a streaming sleeper should look at Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who sits available in about 40 percent of leagues.

Tannehill has double digits in all but two games this year and this weekend gets a cupcake matchup against the Indianapolis Colts, the team allowing the 11th-most points to the spot. With weapons such as wide receiver Jarvis Landry to utilize against a defense that has given up 12 passing touchdowns over its last five games, it’s hard to imagine Tannehill will disappoint.  

 

Running Backs

With so many injuries and emerging committees, it’s becoming more difficult by the week to make the right moves at running back. 

Still, usual suspects dot the rankings, including Kansas City Chiefs running back Charcandrick West.

West deserves to have his name up there after posting 13 points in Week 15 by way of 16 carries for 76 yards and a score, good for his first double-digit outing since Week 10 thanks to injury woes and the emergence of Spencer Ware.

It seems West has earned more looks, though, and just in time for a date with the Cleveland Browns. The unit allows the 11th-most points to backs, and just five opposing backfields have failed to breach the 100-yard mark against it.

The sleeper this week should be pretty obvious now that New Orleans Saints running back Tim Hightower seems to have a high-volume role. The veteran has 28 and 13 carries over his past two games with 23 total points over the two contests. 

It’s clear New Orleans is content to roll with Hightower in an every-down capacity the rest of the way, making him an elite play this weekend against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Jacksonville has been shaky at best against the run all year, allowing 10 opposing backfields to hit double digits. Given his newfound usage, Hightower is a lock to do so on his own.

 

Wide Receivers

Other than Antonio Brown and a few other big names, owners should keep an eye on Washington’s DeSean Jackson this week.

Jackson has been on absolute fire since Week 11, posting 12 or more points in four out of his last five outings. He saved his best for last too, going for a season-high 21 points last weekend against the Buffalo Bills.

It shouldn’t come as a shock, then, that he’s excited for a showdown with the Philadelphia Eagles, according to the team’s Twitter account:

Outside of the history there, who wouldn’t be? The Eagles cough up the second-most points to the position with 19 or more points allowed to opposing wideout corps in seven consecutive games.

Baltimore Ravens wideout Kamar Aiken would be the sleeper to eye.

Owned in just 59.1 percent of leagues, Aiken has 11 or more points in three of his last five, including a season-best 18 last weekend against the Chiefs on eight catches for 128 yards and a score. 

Believe it or not, it gets easier for Aiken this week against the Steelers. Pittsburgh looks unstoppable, but it happens to allow the third-most points to wideouts this year and since a Week 11 bye has surrendered nine touchdowns to the position over four games.

It’s apparent Aiken will produce no matter who lines up under center but especially so against the Steelers. He posted 13 points against the unit back in Week 4.

 

Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski and others steal the headlines, but it’s clear future Hall of Famer Antonio Gates won’t let his season end on a sour note.

One of the San Diego Chargers’ main targets had struggled most of the season to post consistent production. Said struggles ended in Week 12, though, as Gates now has seven or more points in three of his last four games with a high of 17.

Gates might post his highest total of the season against the Oakland Raiders in Week 16. The Raiders allow the second-most points to the spot, and Gates should know how to exploit the unit after all these years.

It’s not easy to find a sleeper at tight end this time of year, but Richard Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers might qualify seeing as how he’s available in more than 30 percent of leagues still. 

Rodgers has posted just six total points over two games since a 20-point showing in Week 13. He could make all of that back and then some against the Arizona Cardinals, though.

The Cardinals have actually been rather spotty against tight ends as of late, allowing the 15th-most points in large part thanks to four touchdowns permitted since a Week 9 bye, including one last week.

When things break down for quarterback Aaron Rodgers, he figures to go right at, well, Rodgers.

 

Defense/Special Teams

Remember the Houston Texans defense led by J.J. Watt?

Call it the perfect sleeper this week. Owned in just 51.6 percent of leagues, the Texans have six double-digit outings this year but three trips to negative points to balance the scales.

This weekend borderline promises a high-scoring output, though, thanks to an encounter with the Tennessee Titans. Back in Week 8, Houston set a season high with 19 points against the unit.

Even better, the Titans allow the most points to opposing defenses this year. Did anyone mention there’s chatter about Titans star quarterback Marcus Mariota missing the rest of the season, per Jim Wyatt of the team’s official website?

The Texans are in for a huge day.

 

Kickers

Fantasy owners don’t seem too high on the idea of Chargers kicker Josh Lambo, who sits with a 6.6 ownership percentage.

It’s a bit odd but makes Lambo one of the top sleeper options this week. He’s scored in double digits three times, with five or more points in 11 games, giving him a desirable floor with room for a nice ceiling if the matchup looks good.

And it does this week against the Oakland Raiders. Lambo posted nine points against Oakland in Week 7, which isn’t hard to imagine his doing again or better considering the Raiders allow the most points to kickers this year.

 

All scoring info courtesy of ESPN standard leagues, as are points-against info and ownership stats as of December 22.

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Week 16 Waiver-Wire Pickups: Available Sleepers in Most ESPN, Yahoo Leagues

Fantasy Football
December 23, 2015

This is not the time of the year you want to be desperate, but fantasy football rarely goes as planned. Sometimes you need to find a last-minute sleeper who can lead you to a championship.

While there usually isn’t too much of a challenge to get players at this stage, the key pickups for Week 16 were Christine Michael, Kirk Cousins and Rueben Randle. If there are any leagues left without Doug Baldwin, Ted Ginn Jr. or Michael Floyd, you should also pick them up immediately.

For those who need to look deep down the list, however, here is a look at a few sleepers who can help you right away. All players are available in more than 70 percent of leagues on both ESPN and Yahoo.

 

Blaine Gabbert, QB, San Francisco 49ers

Using the usual criteria of under 30 percent owned leaves few quality options, especially at quarterback, but if available, Cousins and Alex Smith are better options. Whoever starts for the Baltimore Ravens also has a favorable matchup against a struggling Pittsburgh Steelers secondary.

However, the best option available could be Blaine Gabbert, who has been surprisingly solid as the San Francisco 49ers starter the past few weeks. He has a touchdown pass in every game he has played and has generally avoided turnovers until his three interceptions last week. Of course, not all of those were his fault, as noted by Paul Dehner Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer:

It’s also important to mention Gabbert has played a tough schedule when it comes to defenses. In his last five starts, he has faced the Seattle Seahawks, Arizona Cardinals and Cincinnati Bengals, none of which allow big fantasy games to anyone. In one of his other two games, he posted 24 fantasy points in standard leagues.

This gives hope for him to put up big numbers against an inconsistent Detroit Lions defense. With veteran talent around him like Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith, Gabbert has a chance to have at least a decent day.

 

Cameron Artis-Payne, RB, Carolina Panthers

Jonathan Stewart is the starting running back for the Carolina Panthers when healthy, but it isn’t yet known if he will be back in the lineup in Week 16. His latest explanation didn’t provide much clarity either, per Steve Reed of the Associated Press:

The reality is that while an undefeated season is nice, the Panthers care much more about the playoffs and are likely to hold back the veteran if possible. This leaves an opportunity for other players to get a chance, including Cameron Artis-Payne.

It was unclear coming into last week who could get the majority of carries in the backfield between Artis-Payne, Fozzy Whittaker and Mike Tolbert, but the rookie dominated the touches in Week 15, finishing with 14 carries for 59 yards to go with two catches for 34 yards. Cam Newton is still the best runner in the backfield, but the team will need a running back to take off some of the pressure, and Artis-Payne is the guy to do that.

Just as importantly, the Atlanta Falcons have struggled against the run this year and allow the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, per ESPN. A lot of that has to do with 15 rushing touchdowns allowed. If Artis-Payne gets the opportunity, it could lead to a big day.

 

Dontrelle Inman, WR, San Diego Chargers

After missing Week 14 with a neck injury, Dontrelle Inman returned to action Sunday and appeared to be the best healthy receiver for the San Diego Chargers. Although he had just three catches, they were big ones, as noted by Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union Tribune:

He also trailed only Antonio Gates for the team lead in targets, which is a big deal in a pass-heavy attack like the Chargers. No quarterback in the league has thrown the ball more than Philip Rivers this season, and that won’t change with the injury to Melvin Gordon. The team has seemingly run out of other options at receiver, but there at least seems to be some sort of connection with Inman.

Before getting hurt a couple of weeks ago, the receiver was showing plenty of promise with five catches for 65 yards and a touchdown in Week 12. If he can continue this against an Oakland Raiders secondary that has had its issues this year, Inman will have plenty of opportunities to pick up big chunks of yards and possibly get into the end zone.  

 

Follow Rob Goldberg on Twitter for all your fantasy football and daily fantasy needs.

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