No matter how hard everyone tries, nobody will ever accurately project every significant fantasy football outcome.
Only severely desperate managers started Andre Johnson on Thursday night. Although a popular choice entering 2015, the veteran wide receiver worked his way out of all starting lineups—and several rosters—with consecutive catchless outings.
So of course he recorded 77 yards and two touchdowns with Matt Hasselbeck starting over Andrew Luck.
Johnson entered Week 5 as the No. 57-ranked wide receiver on FantasyPros, which compiles consensus rankings among several participating experts. Anyone bragging about starting the Indianapolis Colts veteran probably hadn’t touched their lineup since Week 2. Or they bought into a revenge-game narrative against the Houston Texans that luckily worked out.
There are no sure things, and somebody few analysts like will probably explode this weekend. Yet it’s still smart to research as many informed opinions as possible to make the most educated guesses. Let’s use FantasyPros’ consensus rankings to see how fantasy gurus perceive certain Week 5 options.
Colin Kaepernick, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Consensus Rank: No. 24 QB
The San Francisco 49ers will face the New York Giants, who have surrendered more passing yards than anyone this season. Matchup aside, the experts still detest Colin Kaepernick.
It takes a special kind of bad for everyone to deem someone unplayable regardless of the opponent. Through four games, Kaepernick has tossed two touchdowns and five interceptions, averaging 6.27 yards per pass attempt. Not even his 48.8 rushing yards per game can cover up his atrocious passing production.
He enters the week ranked No. 33 in quarterback rating, creating doubts of whether he’ll remain San Francisco’s starter all year. He shrugged off such speculation to ESPN.com’s Paul Gutierrez.
“I don’t play for job security,” Kaepernick said Wednesday. “Whether football is here or not, I will be fine. I go out; I play to win. I’m not worried about job security when I step in this building.”
While the Giants have coughed up plenty of yards, they have only permitted six passing touchdowns, while grasping five picks. As a result, they rate No. 20 in ESPN.com fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
New York also boasts the NFL‘s best run defense, which means the 49ers could struggle to get Carlos Hyde back on track. This helps explain why only two analysts perceive Kaepernick as a top-15 option this week. The consensus even prefers Josh McCown and Michael Vick.
Dion Lewis, RB, New England Patriots
Consensus Rank: No. 10 RB
After treating him with skepticism for weeks, Dion Lewis has hurdled over fears associated with playing running back for the New England Patriots.
The 25-year-old has made the most of his 15 touches per game, accruing 325 total yards and two touchdowns through three contests. When he fumbled in consecutive weeks, Bill Belichick uncharacteristically stood by his side. New England again showed its commitment to Lewis by signing him to a contract extension, as reported on Thursday by ESPN’s Field Yates:
Don’t panic about LeGarrette Blount scoring three touchdowns against the Jacksonville Jaguars. They came at the back end of a 51-17 victory, during which Lewis compiled 67 yards and a goal-line score. He doesn’t hold a monopoly on the team’s backfield touches, but he’ll get enough looks in a prolific offense to flourish as a starting fantasy back.
Originally viewed as an exclusive point-per-reception (PPR) choice, Lewis places No. 10 in FantasyPros’ standard-scoring rankings. Rotoworld’s Nick Mensio laid out his reasons for liking Lewis against the Dallas Cowboys:
Lewis dominated snaps in the first half of the Patriots’ last game, a Week 3 win over the Jaguars, before giving way to LeGarrette Blount when the game was already well in hand. Lewis punched a touchdown in from eight yards out against Jacksonville and is tied for the league lead in targets per game among running backs at six. He’s been a PPR machine for New England and is even returning value in standard formats. The Patriots have the highest team total of Week 5 at 29 points. Dallas has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including the fourth-most catches for the second-most yards to the position.
The Cowboys have relinquished eight receptions and 24 fantasy points per game to running backs, per ESPN.com. This bout could unfold similarly to Week 3, with Lewis gobbling up fantasy points early before Blount hammers home a lopsided victory.
Allen Hurns, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Consensus Rank: No. 23 WR
Could it be? After years of agony, the Jaguars finally have useful skill-position players. Heading into Week 5’s inner-state clash with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, two wide receivers are seeded prominently inside the position.
Despite an inconsistent start, Allen Robinson draws a No. 16 ranking among wideouts and is slotted as high as No. 6. Another Allen, however, leads the team in catches. After reeling in 11-of-15 targets against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4, Allen Hurns has a club-high 22 catches along with touchdowns in back-to-back weeks.
The 23-year-old should now be owned in all leagues, but those new investors must decide if he’s worth starting at Tampa Bay. FantasyPros’ No. 23 ranking depicts him as a high-end No. 3 receiver or flex option in standard leagues.
The Buccaneers stink, but they have allowed only 185.5 passing yards per contest, one total yard fewer than the NFL-best Denver Broncos.
One game doesn’t cement Hurns as Blake Bortles’ new go-to target, so the pundits are overreacting a tad to one big outing. He’s usable in the right circumstances, but Kendall Wright, Brandin Cooks and Leonard Hankerson are preferable plays lower in the rankings.
Note: All rankings obtained from FantasyPros.
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