Fantasy football gamers everywhere will hope to end 2015 on a high note this weekend, which hosts championships for standard leagues.
After belaboring over lineup dilemmas for 15 weeks, players must make the right calls one more time. Stick with the studs who got them there or play the matchups? Will the hot hands stay hot or freeze at the worst possible moment?
Studying Week 16’s spreads and over-under lines, courtesy of Odds Shark, can help steer a contestant into the right choice. The betting info speaks volumes about matchups to exploit or avoid in order to achieve glory.
Blake Bortles, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
There are managers out there who used a late-round pick or waiver add on Blake Bortles of the Jacksonville Jaguars as insurance for Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees. Those people are spending much more time deliberating their starting quarterback than they ever thought possible.
Under NFL.com‘s standard scoring, the second-year passer has tallied the fifth-most fantasy points among quarterbacks. He has Rodgers and Brees beat because of his 31 passing touchdowns, and he’s right on Carson Palmer’s heels, as shown by NFL Network’s Twitter page before Thursday night’s game:
Despite completing 57.7 percent of his passes, which ranks No. 33 behind Matt Cassel, Bortles is averaging 272.9 passing yards per game while amassing at least one score each time. He has morphed into a worthwhile fantasy quarterback under normal circumstances, so the best possible matchup puts him in consideration as the week’s top play.
For anyone needing another reminder, the New Orleans Saints can’t play defense. They have surrendered 39 passing touchdowns, a 116.5 quarterback rating and an NFL-high 23.93 NFL.com fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
The Superdome is usually portrayed as an advantage for Drew Brees’ offense, but the opponents also welcome the controlled environment. ESPN Stats & Info pointed out New Orleans’ defensive ineptitude at home this season:
Outside of Cam Newton, Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger, don’t hesitate to start Bortles over a big-name stud.
Projections: 25-of-42, 350 Passing Yards, 3 TDs, 1 INTs
Todd Gurley, RB, St. Louis Rams
Owners face a different conundrum with the St. Louis Rams’ Todd Gurley. The rookie running back has eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards in a dozen games, cementing his spot as a too-good-to-sit star. His Week 16 outlook doesn’t look great.
The Seattle Seahawks have surrendered a league-low 11.72 NFL.com fantasy points to opposing backs. Lately, teams haven’t had a chance to run, as the Seahawks sport a plus-102 point differential during their five-game winning streak.
Vegas likes their chances of making it six, tabbing them as 13-point favorites. The 40.5 over-under line is the week’s second lowest, forecasting little scoring in a blowout loss for St. Louis.
Such an outcome would hinder Gurley’s workload, especially as the game progresses. According to Pro-Football-Reference.com, he does his most damage during the second half:
Two victories revitalized the neophyte, who amassed 226 yards and three touchdowns over 40 touches. In two proceeding blowouts, he registered 71 yards and a score on 19 touches.
Because of his supporting cast, Gurley carries far more downside than a stud running back should. Yet given the position’s lack of standout talent, it’s hard to imagine any squad rostering two or three superior alternatives.
Projections: 13 Carries, 50 Rushing Yards, 1 TD, 2 Receptions, 15 Receiving Yards
Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Why fight it? Bench depth for half the season, the Seahawks’ Doug Baldwin is suddenly a touchdown machine who lifted many owners into the fantasy finals.
Baldwin, who scored 15 career touchdowns during his first four years, has accrued 13 this season. As noted by NFL on ESPN, his 10 scores over a four-game stretch places him alongside an all-time great:
Expanding the sample size by two more weeks, the Seahawks wideout has compiled 34 catches for 560 yards and 11 scores in the past six contests. Per the News Tribune‘s Gregg Bell, Baldwin is not interested in discussing his historic stretch.
Look, I’m going to kick you guys in the shins. This stuff means absolutely nothing, OK? I’ve had four games which have been OK, five games or whatever it is. But when it’s all said and done, what have you done over the course of a career? That’s what I’m going to be focused on.
Along with the surging Seahawks, his output sure means a lot to fantasy gamers. A fringe flex play for deeper gamers is now a must-start without even looking at the matchup. He opened the season with a tame 35 yards against the Rams, but they rank No. 21 against the pass with a 67.6 opposing completion percentage.
If defenses can’t stop him, his own body might. Suddenly his status is in peril, as the team’s Twitter account named him as an uncertainty to suit up:
According to the Seattle Times‘ Bob Condotta, Baldwin practiced in full capacity on Friday, which bodes well for his outlook:
Even if active, Baldwin can’t score two or three touchdowns in every game. Eventual regression aside, he’s a top target for a quarterback who has completed at least 70 percent of his passes in five straight games.
Projections: 6 Receptions, 8 Targets, 85 Yards, 1 TD
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