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NFL Predictions Week 12: Fantasy Projections and Guide to Latest Vegas Odds

Fantasy Football
November 28, 2015

Thursday established the framework for a maddening Week 12 as fantasy football owners desperately seek a victory.

During Thanksgiving’s three-game slate, many big-name stars left managers hungry for more points. In another subpar showing, Aaron Rodgers threw for 202 yards on 43 pass attempts, accruing one touchdown and pick. Tony Romo’s short-lived return didn’t help Dez Bryant, who only produced 26 yards against Josh Norman’s Carolina Panthers.

Romo torpedoed some weeks early with three picks in a game dominated by Carolina’s defense, which delighted owners with two scores. Anyone with Matthew Stafford and/or Calvin Johnson is feeling thankful for the head start, but others are reeling and need to fix a mess caused by their stars.

Other studs will inevitably underwhelm, so whom can gamers trust? Let’s look at three big names facing an uncertain Week 12 outlook after examining the remaining 13 games’ odds, courtesy of Odds Shark

 

Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots

Throughout the season, Tom Brady has eliminated one conflict from every fantasy owner’s life. With the exception of the New England Patriots’ bye week, nobody ever needed to give a second thought to quarterback with Brady occupying the spot. 

Few will deviate from that plan in Week 12, but they have reason to feel nervous.

In Week 11, during his first game without Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman, Brady completed a season-low 51.3 percent of his passes (20 of 39) with his second-fewest passing yards (277) and yards per attempt (7.10) of an incredible campaign. For the first time this season, he didn’t throw for two or more touchdowns.

With two of New England’s top offensive threats off the table, the Buffalo Bills homed in on Rob Gronkowski, limiting the star tight end to two catches for 37 yards. As noted by ESPN’s John Buccigross, the Bills exacerbated Brady’s issues by pressuring him all night:

He now gets the Denver Broncos, who have stymied opponents to an NFL-low 190.6 passing yards per game and eight passing touchdowns this year. They have also generated a league-high 34 sacks behind a fierce pass rush.

New England also may not have Danny Amendola, who led the squad with nine catches and 117 yards during Monday’s victory over the Bills. According to the Boston Herald‘s Jeff Howe, the oft-injured wideout could sit out the trip to Denver after injuring his knee in Week 11:

The problem is anyone rostering Tom Brady shouldn’t also have an upper-echelon quarterback rotting away on the bench. Anyone entertaining doubts about starting the golden boy is looking thoroughly at Brian Hoyer, Marcus Mariota and Josh McCown, matchup plays potentially floating on the waiver wire.

Don’t expect a massive outing, but this is a case of trusting a stud to deliver a solid return.

Projections: 24 of 40, 250 Yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT.

 

Lamar Miller, RB, Miami Dolphins

One quiet game and everyone is panicking about Lamar Miller. Snapping a five-game touchdown streak, the Miami Dolphins running back compiled 55 yards on nine touches, causing concerned onlookers to fret the limited looks reminiscent of earlier weeks this season.

Including Thursday’s games, FantasyPros‘ consensus rankings placed him No. 15 among running backs behind the struggling Chris Ivory and place-filler Javorius Allen. Perhaps some rankers observed his last encounter with the New York Jets back on Oct. 4, which ended in an ugly tally and head-coaching change:

Miller, averaging 5.0 yards per carry this season, has registered 17 touches per game since Dan Campbell took over from Joe Philbin as head coach. The 24-year-old has proved tough to take down, as observed by NFL Network’s Gil Brandt:

The Jets are a difficult opponent, ranked No. 3 against the run while relinquishing 3.8 yards per carry. Their defense, however, has shown some cracks in recent weeks. LeSean McCoy of the Buffalo Bills proved they’re beatable by besting them for 159 yards in Week 10, and the Houston Texans’ Alfred Blue followed with 92 yards and a score after weeks of irrelevance.

Up until Week 11, Miami embraced feeding Miller to positive results. When they steered away from him, they stumbled in a 24-14 loss to the Dallas Cowboys. Bank on the Dolphins to have learned their lesson and give the star back more opportunities on Sunday.

Projections: 12 Rushes, 50 Yards, 4 Receptions, 45 Yards, 1 TD.

 

Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland Raiders

Thought Miller had a bad Week 11? Given a seemingly strong matchup against the Detroit Lions, Amari Cooper caught one pass for four yards. 

He also dropped two of his four targets, for which he criticized himself to Jimmy Durkin of the San Jose Mercury News: “Anytime you have multiple drops, it’s a big deal. When you’re a receiver, you’re supposed to catch the ball. You just have to go back to the drawing board, eliminate the drops and move forward.”

The rookie wide receiver had recorded at least four receptions and 46 yards in each of the Oakland Raiders’ previous nine contests, so his fantasy investors could not have foreseen such a poor showing. Quarterback Derek Carr isn’t concerned about the rough outing.

“I’m not worried about him,” Carr told ESPN’s Bill Williamson. He’s ‘Coop,’ man. He makes a whole bunch of plays. We’ll be all right.”

The Tennessee Titans rank No. 3 with 214.0 passing yards allowed per game, but they have also surrendered 8.0 yards per pass attempt with a 64.8 opposing completion percentage. Michael Crabtree has absorbed some of Cooper’s luster, but the newcomer should bounce back well enough to trust in starting lineups.

Projections: 6 Receptions, 9 Targets, 90 Yards.

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