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GPP Tips: Why Going Contrarian Works

Fantasy Football
March 31, 2017

DFS at the end of the season is generally a bit more difficult, as the regs simply won’t go away and the pool of extremely casual players is generally reduced. This creates an interesting dynamic in GPP, as we are not dealing with a static environment like in cash games. It becomes difficult to simply find the best value plays of the day and mash them in with abandon, since a larger % of the field will be aware of these plays, thus driving up the overall ownership of the obvious plays. In the most absurd scenario, you’d end up with a situation where everyone had the same lineup in a 50,000 man GPP and everyone loses the rake. Obviously it hasn’t come to that, but as competition gets tougher it is paramount to rapidly shift gears into going contrarian. I tested some hypotheses by running a simulation using Excel, doing the following: 1) Creating an optimal(ish) median value lineup (one you might use in cash) 2) Creating a 2nd derivative of the best lineup, but using none of the players in the first lineup 3) Creating a 3rd derivative using none of the players in either lineups 1 or 2

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