Listen, guys and gals, I’ve been wheeling and dealing since elementary school. Back then, I was trying to get some Dunkaroos or Fruit by the Foot from one of my friends for a super delicious, shiny red apple I had in my lunch box.
And nothing has changed, other than the fact that I’ve gone from snacks to fantasy players. Which is why I post my fantasy trade chart as a weekly guide to help ensure you get solid value in all of your potential deals.
Now, if you’ll excuse me, I suddenly have the strangest urge to snack.
Everyone say hello to Jay Ajayi and, please, welcome him to fantasy prominence.
Well, maybe.
You can ignore one rushing performance of 200 yards if the player in question hadn’t rushed for more than 50 yards in a game in his two-year career.
But it becomes a lot harder to ignore that player if he not only rushes for over 200 yards two weeks in a row, but his only potential competition for touches in the backfield this season—in this case, Arian Foster—also happens to retire.
So, yes, Ajayi‘s trade value has skyrocketed. In fact, it’s possible it won’t ever be higher. After all, it’s hard to imagine him posting another two-game stretch that totals 59 fantasy points. Remember, he had 24 fantasy points heading into Week 6.
Are you seeing where I’m going here? You might actually be able to sell high on Ajayi right now.
Yes, I know that running backs are valuable. The position is once again laden with injuries and underachievers, and the next two weeks will see 12 teams go on bye. Cutting ties with a player who is red-hot probably doesn’t seem wise.
But right now, Ajayi—in my opinion—is likely to be valued in the same class of running backs as Todd Gurley, Mark Ingram, C.J. Anderson (if he stays healthy), Christine Michael, Matt Forte and Jonathan Stewart. But is that where his ultimate value will land at the end of the season?
Maybe, but I think a regression is probably in order. And if you want to sell high now, here are some of the packages you might be able to get in return, at the very least:
- Andrew Luck and Ty Montgomery
- Alshon Jeffery and Delanie Walker
- Cole Beasley and Michael Thomas
- Jamison Crowder and Doug Baldwin
If you are already solid at running back and need help in other areas, consider dealing Ajayi this week. The point isn’t that he won’t be good the rest of the year. He probably will be. The point is that he won’t be this good. But some folks out there might overpay for him nonetheless.
Do not, however, trade LeGarrette Blount. A few weeks back, I predicted his value would take a hit with Tom Brady back in the lineup.
I was wrong.
Since Brady’s return, Blount has posted 46 fantasy points over the last three weeks, rushing 55 times for 214 yards and four touchdowns. He’s been a true pillar of consistency for the Patriots, to the point that head coach Bill Belichick is even praising his ability to carry the load as a lead back, per Mike Reiss of ESPN.com:
He’s always been able to do that. I mean, you go back to the Buffalo game a couple of years ago when he was carrying the whole team on his back and returning kickoffs. He’s just a runner with good size, good athletic ability and good ball security. I’m glad we have him, glad we are able to give the ball to him with some volume and he’s been productive.
If you don’t speak Belichickian, the above is the equivalent of your average and expressive human being saying, This guy has been a revelation! We’re gonna lean on him if he continues to produce like this, believe me! Hey, I’m done with this particular topic, but I’d love it if you asked me a question about something else!
OK, maybe not that last part.
However, another Patriot is struggling this season: Julian Edelman. I also incorrectly thought—I promise, I get things right sometimes—Edelman‘s fantasy value would take a major bump upon Brady’s return.
Instead, Edelman has registered a grand total of 10 points with Brady back in the lineup and is now averaging 4.1 fantasy points per week.
One problem for Edelman is that Brady also can turn to Rob Gronkowski, Martellus Bennett, James White, Chris Hogan and Danny Amendola in the passing game. Blount and the running game have also been excellent—122.7 rushing yards per game, sixth in the NFL—putting less pressure on Brady to win games solely through the air.
And Edelman‘s role doesn’t help. Consider that he has 37 receptions and 54 targets, both solid marks, but is averaging just 8.6 yards per catch. Edelman is the team’s underneath, catch-and-run target. The touchdowns may not come. The long pass plays may not come. Edelman, at this point, is nothing more than a WR3 with upside based solely on his past production.
But at some point soon, if he doesn’t start producing, he won’t be a player you even need to own.
You probably won’t be dropping DeAndre Hopkins or Allen Robinson anytime soon. But the thought might be creeping into your mind. After all, Hopkins is the 26th-ranked wideout in fantasy football and Robinson is just 42nd. Not exactly what owners were expecting from two players who each finished in the top six among fantasy wide receivers a year ago.
But boy, quarterback play can make a difference for players, huh?
In Houston, Brock Osweiler has a QBR of 47.8, 26th in the NFL. Jacksonville’s Blake Bortles is just one ranking behind him, with a QBR of 47.7. In Football Outsiders‘ Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement metric, Osweiler has the worst mark among players with at least 105 pass attempts (-270) and Bortles isn’t much better in that regard (-142).
Put another way: Osweiler and Bortles have been incredibly bad this year, and it seems to be dramatically affecting their top receivers. And until the two quarterbacks improve, Hopkins and Robinson are more than likely going to struggle.
That is bad news for their fantasy value, and much worse news for fantasy owners.
You can follow Timothy Rapp on Twitter. All points-against and fantasy stats via ESPN.com standard-scoring leagues.
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