Some sanity returned in Week 3 of the NFL season.
Todd Gurley finally had a strong game. Jimmy Graham once again resembled the dominating force from his New Orleans days. Allen Robinson reached the end zone for the first (and second) time this season.
Some of the expectations from before the season are starting to take shape. Other players, however, continue to defy those expectations.
So how do you value those players? And how should you value players who are underachieving?
Let’s break down the trade chart.
As always, I’ll use a few examples of players to give you a better idea of how I approach trades and ascribe value.
It’s getting pretty hard to ignore the season Marvin Jones is having in Detroit. After three weeks, he’s accumulated 18 receptions for 408 yards and two touchdowns on 29 targets. In standard-scoring leagues, he’s the top wide receiver with 51 fantasy points.
But just how sustainable is his production? And is he a player worth selling high on?
Well, the fact that just 23 percent of his fantasy value thus far has come from his two touchdowns is a positive sign. Touchdowns can be fickle, while receptions, yards and targets are a better indicator of a player’s role on a team and his sustainable value throughout the season.
To contrast, Jordy Nelson—who leads all wide receivers with four touchdowns after three weeks—has received 54 percent of his fantasy value from touchdowns. Granted, Nelson has a history of being an excellent fantasy producer, has Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball and an offense geared around the passing game. So his production, despite its high reliance on touchdowns early in the season, is sustainable based on his past resume.
Still, there are reasons to believe Jones will continue to produce. For one, Matt Stafford has attempted 120 passes in the first three weeks, sixth-most in the NFL. More importantly, he’s turned all of those attempts into 985 yards, seven touchdowns and two interceptions.
Jones is also dangerous on deep balls and never expects to lose against a cornerback down the field, as he told Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press:
I’m going to win 100% of the time. As a receiver, you have to have that mentality. If you don’t have that mentality, then you shouldn’t be playing receiver. But I think, when I’m on the sideline or wherever, whenever the ball‘s up that I get the ball. Matt (Stafford) does a good job of throwing it in different spots for me to go get it.
Plus, Jones is the clear No. 1 option in the passing game. Golden Tate has been quiet, Anquan Boldin has been solid but is limited at this point in his career and Eric Ebron is more of a threat in the red zone and over the middle. He won’t steal touches from Jones.
In other words, Jones is either a player you should try to trade for now, before his value blows up, or a player whom you should absolutely be holding onto.
If you are looking to buy Jones on the cheap, here’s an idea of some fairly even trades:
- Jordan Reed and Derek Carr
- Frank Gore and Coby Fleener
- Christine Michael and Julius Thomas
- Ryan Mathews and Delanie Walker
As you can see, you shouldn’t be giving up a king’s ransom for Jones just yet. Savvier owners will want more for him. Owners who don’t trust his early production might be inclined to take less. His value is still a bit difficult to ascertain, but you should be treating him like a WR2 with WR1 potential at this point.
Matt Camp of Nerdy Football has a few more players to keep an eye on:
What about a player you might be able to get far below his actual value?
Look no further than Julian Edelman. His numbers have suffered with Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett under center (18 catches for 180 yards), but he thrived last season with Tom Brady calling the shots. Brady returns in Week 5, meaning this is probably the last week or so that you might be able to pry Edelman away from impatient fantasy owners.
Remember, in nine weeks last season before injury struck, Edelman caught 61 passes for 692 yards, seven scores and totaled 107 fantasy points. That’s 11.8 fantasy points per week.
Yes, there are always those injury concerns with Edelman. But his numbers should dramatically improve come Week 5. And right now, you might just be able to get him for a bargain.
Here are some deals you might try:
- Jonathan Stewart and Matt Stafford
- Emmanuel Sanders and the Minnesota D/ST
- Eric Ebron and Matt Jones
- Zach Ertz and Theo Riddick
These aren’t cheap deals given Edelman‘s current production, but they are based on the belief that with Brady under center, he’ll be a high-end WR2 over his last 12 games. Obviously, if you can get him for less, pull the trigger.
Either way, he’s certainly a player worth targeting at his “buy-low” status.
You can follow Timothy Rapp on Twitter. All points-against and fantasy stats via ESPN.com.
Read more Fantasy Football news on NerdyFootball.com
