It happens every year. You excitedly take a star or a star-in-the-making early in your fantasy draft, sit back and wait for the points to start rolling in.
And for some reason, it doesn’t happen.
Sometimes the points never come. But sometimes it just takes a few weeks before that player starts to produce as expected.
Let’s discuss a few players who have disappointed to this point but are due for their breakout performances this week.
Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts
Let’s call a spade a spade: Andrew Luck has been an absolute bust thus far this season, throwing for just five touchdowns and seven interceptions while averaging a disappointing 13.7 fantasy points per contest. Those are shoddy numbers for the first quarterback off the board in many fantasy drafts.
But things should get better this week.
Luck faces a Jacksonville defense giving up 19 fantasy points per week to opposing quarterbacks, 23rd in the NFL. And Luck had one of his best performances of last season against Jacksonville, throwing for 370 yards and four touchdowns while accumulating 31 fantasy points against the Jags in Week 3.
Bank on another big performance this time around. And don’t worry about his shoulder injury, either.
“He’s day-to-day,” coach Chuck Pagano said, via Zak Keefer of the Indianapolis Star. “I’m not a witch doctor. I don’t have a crystal ball. We just listen to the trainers and the doctors… I wouldn’t bet against No. 12, ever. I have supreme confidence he’ll play.”
“I expect to play, that’s for sure,” Luck added. “[But] obviously we’re going to defer to the doctors and trainers on everything.”
Eddie Lacy, RB, Green Bay Packers
Injuries have derailed Lacy’s start to the fantasy season, as he’s averaging just 7.7 fantasy points per game and has reached double-digit points just once. But against a pretty porous San Francisco run defense, a healthy Lacy is about to explode.
The Niners are giving up 22.0 fantasy points per week to opposing running backs and just allowed Chris Johnson, of all players, to rush for 110 yards and two scores against them. That’s the same Johnson who rushed for over 100 yards just twice between the 2013 and 2014 seasons.
Lacy is much better than Johnson. Expect a huge performance from him this weekend.
Pierre Garcon or DeSean Jackson, WR, Washington
The recommendation here really depends on whether Jackson is able to play or not. If he goes, than you’ll absolutely want to start him. If not, Garcon is about to finally post big numbers this year.
The Philadelphia Eagles, despite a revamped secondary that included the expensive signing of Byron Maxwell, have really struggled against opposing wide receivers this season. They’ve given up five touchdowns against the position and are allowing 27.3 fantasy points per week to opposing wideouts, 26th in the NFL.
Garcon hasn’t done much this year, with just 17 catches for 161 yards and a touchdown. Those aren’t terrible numbers, but they’re hardly fantasy-relevant ones, either. Against Philadelphia, however, he should finally exceed double-digit points.
If Jackson doesn’t play, that is. If Jackson is healthy enough to go, expect him to torch his former team.
Martellus Bennett, TE, Chicago Bears
Bennett has had one solid week and two poor ones, and having Jimmy Clausen at quarterback isn’t helping matters. But Bennett should be able to torch the Oakland Raiders, who have already given up 21 receptions, 305 receiving yards and five touchdowns to opposing tight ends.
To put into perspective how generous the Raiders have been to tight ends, the second-worst defense in fantasy points given to the position (the New Orleans Saints) is giving up 5.3 less points per game than the 19.3 points Oakland gives up per week.
Heck, 14 teams haven’t even given up a total of 19 points to opposing tight ends yet this season.
So yes, Bennett is due for a very big week. If he doesn’t produce against the Raiders, it’s time for his fantasy owners to start worrying.
All fantasy stats and points against totals via ESPN standard leagues.
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