Heading into Week 11, every fantasy football manager has run into a major roadblock this season.
The very few spared from the injury bug endured an old-fashioned dud or two. Not every bust flamed out as violently as Ameer Abdullah or Andre Johnson, but several high draft picks have fallen short of their expected value.
They’re not great enough to comfortably leave in the lineup every week, but they also aren’t bad enough to kick to the curb, especially with precious playoff positioning on the line. After running through the weekend’s flex rankings for standard and point-per-reception (PPR) leagues, let’s take a look at three such cases.
Justin Forsett, RB, Baltimore Ravens
Following a disappointing start, Justin Forsett seemed to have turned a corner with two huge outings to open October. Instead, it amounted to no more than exploiting two good matchups and extra volume in overtime affairs.
During the Baltimore Ravens’ last four games, Forsett has registered 283 total yards and one touchdown. A year after leading all running backs with 5.4 yards per carry, the 30-year-old is averaging 4.2 yards per run.
The workload hasn’t dissipated. He’s on pace to record 261 rushes, 26 more than last season. But as noted by Pro Football Focus’ Mike Tagliere, he’s not making the most of his opportunities:
He’ll need volume to break through against the St. Louis Rams, who have allowed 3.8 yards per rush. Even at 2-7, Baltimore has not lost a game by more than eight points, and this shouldn’t change with Case Keenum taking over St. Louis’ bottom-ranked passing offense. The results have varied, but Forsett has handled the ball at least 14 times every game.
Steady touches don’t come easily, so Forsett remains a No. 2 back or flex option despite his underwhelming outcomes.
Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers
On one hand, Aaron Rodgers spent all of Week 10 searching for Davante Adams, which is terrific for his fantasy worth. The wide receiver, finally healthy and starting for the Green Bay Packers, received 21 targets during a stunning loss to the Detroit Lions.
When Aaron Rodgers throws it you 21 times, 10 receptions for 79 yards is a remarkably inefficient letdown. As shared by NFL Network’s Andrew Siciliano, it’s historically inefficient:
In his last two games, Adams has converted 32 targets into 172 yards. The Packers need better production from the 22-year-old wideout, and fantasy owners crave more big plays from his overflowing workload.
Yet even if he’s catching only half of his looks with little progress after the catch, Adams is still performing, especially from a PPR perspective. When numerous fantasy players touted him as a breakout candidate over the summer, they admired the role more than the player. It took a while, but the situation is finally working in his favor.
While the Minnesota Vikings rank No. 8 against the pass, they’re also on the hook for a 63.2 opposing completion percentage. If Rodgers keeps feeding him, Adams will eventually scarf down a big chunk of yardage on his full plate.
Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo Bills
While Adams has accrued 32 targets through two games, Sammy Watkins has received as many looks in six games this season. The second-year pro helped the Buffalo Bills secure a 22-17 victory over the New York Jets with a pivotal third-down conversion, but his 14 yards against Darrelle Revis didn’t lead fantasy owners to triumph.
Don’t shy away from Watkins after Week 10’s quiet Thursday night. Despite the tough matchup, Tyrod Taylor targeted him seven times. The previous game, he amassed 168 of Buffalo’s 181 receiving yards, accounting for an astronomical 92.8 percent of Buffalo’s passing offense.
According to ESPN.com, the New England Patriots have surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts. Earlier in the season, Watkins registered six catches for 60 yards and a touchdown against the AFC East foes.
He addressed the weekend ahead against the AFC’s lone unbeaten squad, per BuffaloBills.com’s Chris Brown.
“Going against the New England Patriots, you got to really watch a lot of film on those guys,” Watkins said. “Those guys are so good at what they do, you got to really know what you are doing. Nobody can mess up, everybody on the field, got to be on the right page, all 11 guys got to be prepared.”
He can’t stop Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, but Watkins should have another productive performance in a losing effort.
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