More than any other time during the NFL season, Week 1 is when fantasy football managers should play their studs.
With so much snap uncertainty for lower-tier options and no recent results that count, gamers can’t truly trust their high-risk sleepers during the opening weekend. Maybe Melvin Gordon bounces back, but why chance it over a steadier starter like Rashad Jennings?
It’s been a while since everyone has studied the matchups and painfully deliberated over lineup decisions. Err on the side of caution while working off the rust, but not before doing the necessary scheduling homework.
Let’s break down Week 1 rankings (for standard-scoring leagues) at each position.
Quarterback
Review
If you drafted a stud quarterback besides Tom Brady, you should be starting him Week 1. After all, it’s not prudent to back up a top passer with someone who will only prove useful during a bye week or extreme matchup discrepancy.
Of the elite guys, Cam Newton faced the toughest matchup on Thursday night. Dak Prescott and Carson Wentz make great daily fantasy plays because of their minimal prices, but don’t get cute and start one of those rookies over Philip Rivers.
Brees and Carr Slated for a Shootout
Whenever the New Orleans Saints play inside the Superdome, Drew Brees and his quarterback counterpart are top fantasy options.
Of course, you’re starting Brees at home, where he completed 70.3 percent of his passes with 23 touchdowns last year. It only sweetens the deal that he faces the Oakland Raiders, who yielded the sixth-most passing yards and 10th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks last season.
Meanwhile, a Pop Warner quarterback could have shredded the Saints last year. Their historically awful defense surrendered the most passing touchdowns (45) and yards per pass attempt (8.7).
Derek Carr displayed his high ceiling last year, topping 300 yards six times and accruing three or more scores in five games. Look for him to hit both barriers on Sunday.
Running Back
Review
Running back was a mess last year. Because so many people were burned by Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch, Eddie Lacy and C.J. Anderson in the earlier rounds, waiting on the position became the trendy strategy.
Those who followed the Zero RB plan now must scour for the right matchup, which is harder to locate during the opening weekend. Nobody said it was a foolproof path to a championship, but there are certainly breakout candidates outside of the top tier.
Spencer Ware Will Shine
At first, it looked like the Kansas City Chiefs would use Charles sparingly in his first game back from the second ACL tear of his career. Now it’s likely the star running back doesn’t play at all.
According to Chiefs.com’s BJ Kissel, head coach Andy Reid expressed uncertainty on Friday:
All aboard the Spencer Ware bandwagon. Don’t take up more than one seat. Space is limited.
Entering 2015 fourth in the pecking order behind Charles, Knile Davis and Charcandrick West, Ware stood out by averaging 5.6 yards per carry. Pro Football Focus highlighted his superb efficiency in limited looks:
Including the playoffs, he scored seven touchdowns in a 10-game window despite receiving double-digit carries four times. During those games, he tallied 353 yards and five touchdowns.
His breakout outing came against the San Diego Chargers, whom he’ll face to start 2016. Expected to get reps against a defense that wielded 4.8 yards per rush last season, Ware is a highly appealing option.
Wide Receiver
Review
Wide receiver is stacked with stars, but also health concerns. After Kelvin Benjamin returned in style, will Jordy Nelson do the same? Are Sammy Watkins, Dez Bryant and Alshon Jeffery ready to roll after injury-riddled 2015 campaigns?
Jordy Nelson’s Return
After missing all of last season, Nelson faced a summer setback due to achy knees. On Tuesday, per the Associated Press’ Genaro C. Armas, the wideout insisted he’s returning on Sunday.
“I’m playing football,” Nelson said. Well, OK then.
Adding Jalen Ramsey, Myles Jack and Dante Fowler Jr. could make the Jacksonville Jaguars a dangerous opponent, but the Florida heat and humidity presents the biggest obstacle to a bounce-back outing.
Nevertheless, Nelson is a stud who compiled 98 catches for 1,519 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2014. His presence also lifts up Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb, who had substandard seasons without their prolific teammate in the mix.
Don’t expect the world from Nelson, but it’s hard to envision anyone having a better alternative lying on the bench.
Tight End
Review
Ranking Rob Gronkowski No. 1 is usually the one certainty, but not this week. On Friday night, the New England Patriots officially ruled out the tight end (and two of their starting offensive linemen) due to a hamstring injury:
Greg Olsen already played, so congratulations to Jordan Reed on backing into the weekend’s top tight-end slot. Don’t get too used to it.
Don’t Flee from Fleener
The Coby Fleener hype train stumbled when New Orleans’ new tight end finished the preseason with three catches for 16 yards. In an alarming tidbit from ESPN.com’s Mike Triplett, the 27-year-old “admitted recently he is still adjusting to his new playbook.”
For some people, this will spark unpleasant memories of Josh Hill. Branded as the guy to benefit from Jimmy Graham‘s departure last year, he instead registered 120 yards all season while Ben Watson reaped the rewards.
This time, however, there’s no stable veteran to snag Fleener‘s spot. Only Hill and RaShaun Allen, who has never snagged an NFL catch. Having accrued over 50 receptions in each of the last three seasons, the former Indianapolis Colts tight end also boasts a better track record.
Let’s take a deep breath. Scroll up and read about Brees torching everyone at home. Now add Oakland allowing 12 touchdowns and the third-most fantasy points to tight ends last season. There’s too much upside to sit him because of preseason chatter.
Defense/Special Team
Review
Did you draft the New England Patriots defense? Snag the Jaguars expecting big things from their rookie influx? Cool, but they’re worthless this weekend.
Defense is all about playing the matchups, which is why gamers should never get attached to one team. The Patriots may finish as a top-10 unit, but they’re not a recommended option against the Arizona Cardinals. In a weekend without many no-brainer options, the best ones reside in the NFC West.
Calling on the Cardinals
Fantasy players must do something that will feel sacrilegious: start a defense against the Patriots.
There’s no Tom Brady, and Jimmy Garoppolo must survive without Gronkowski and two of the team’s offensive linemen.
Bill Belichick guided Matt Cassel to an 11-5 season, but Garoppolo doesn’t have Randy Moss. Ranking No. 5 in total defense and No. 2 in takeaways (33) last year, the Cardinals are ready to pounce on a wounded opponent.
Kicker
Review
They’re kickers. Maybe they get field-goal opportunities. Maybe they don’t.
Managers can try their best to play the most stable kickers on the best offenses against the most vulnerable opposition—preferably in a dome—but there’s no secret formula to avoiding the position’s volatility.
Adam Vinatieri Still Plays?
Personally, this writer has spent the last decade using Robbie Gould for the name resemblance. Now everything is all out of whack, so let’s turn to an old mainstay entering his 21st season.
Adam Vinatieri didn’t receive many chances last season, but he converted 25 of his 27 field-goal attempts. Bizarrely enough, he missed more extra points (three), an anomaly he should correct in 2016.
A returning Andrew Luck will move the chains and put the 43-year-old in line for more points. Or maybe not. Don’t spend too much time laboring over a completely unpredictable position.
Note: All fantasy scoring info obtained from ESPN.com.
Read more Fantasy Football news on NerdyFootball.com
