As the NFL season progresses, it’s becoming easier to fill out fantasy football lineups.
Remember that supposedly elite defense that allowed your fantasy opponent’s quarterback to post huge points early in the season? Or how about that “great” matchup you had with one of your starting running backs that turned out bad because the opposing defense was better than you thought?
Sample sizes are becoming more reliable now, so we can say a team ranks somewhere in a certain statistic and not be as worried at the possibility that the squad’s ranking might be a fluke.
So let’s look at the top 10 fantasy players at each position for Week 7, according to the consensus projections from Fantasy Pros, which average out fantasy point projections from ESPN, CBS Sports, numberFire and FFToday. Players involved in Thursday night’s game between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers were excluded, which did cause some players outside the top 10 to sneak in for the sake of this article.
After looking at those rankings, we’ll take a closer look at two players from each position who stand out as a clear start or sit.
Quarterback
Start ‘Em: Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints (at Indianapolis Colts)
If Brees’ shaky first two games and subsequent shoulder injury had you concerned, you can put those concerns to rest now.
The 36-year-old apparently used his one week off to refocus, because he’s strung together three solid games against the Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles and Atlanta Falcons. In those three contests, he’s averaged 335.3 passing yards and thrown a total of five touchdowns and just one interception.
Now, he faces a Colts defense ranked 28th in passing yards and 23rd in passing touchdowns allowed. The Saints defense can’t be depended on to stop a nosebleed, so Brees is sure to put up gaudy passing numbers to keep up with his counterpart, Andrew Luck.
Sit ‘Em: Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders (at San Diego Chargers)
Carr, unlike Brees, is trending downward after a nice first three games of his season. The second-year quarterback has posted a Total QBR below 30 in each of his last two contests, both Raiders losses. His rapport with Amari Cooper has faltered, as the rookie receiver has totaled just 96 yards on eight receptions in the past two games after racking up 243 yards on 22 catches the previous two contests.
Unfortunately, a matchup against San Diego doesn’t look like a great time for Carr to regain his momentum, even after a bye.
The Chargers defense is not a very balanced one. They rank seventh against the pass but just 29th against the run. Considering that, the Raiders will likely look to running back Latavius Murray a lot Sunday afternoon, as opposed to putting all the pressure on Carr’s arm.
Running Back
Start ‘Em: Todd Gurley, St. Louis (vs. Cleveland Browns)
This start may seem obvious, as Gurley has lived up to the acclaim in his inaugural season and looks to cement his status as of the top overall backs in the league very soon. But, just in case, consider this your official warning to start the 21-year-old stud in Week 7, and every following week as well.
Against the Cleveland Browns’ putrid run defense, Gurley is in the perfect position to post a career game. Cleveland ranks last in rushing yards allowed, and the young halfback is hot, with a combined 305 rushing yards on 49 carries in his past two contests.
However, Gurley isn’t getting cocky.
Per ESPN’s Nick Wagoner, St. Louis’ battering Ram responded to a question about the Browns’ poor rushing defense with the following: “Those guys could come Sunday and play like the No. 1 defense. I never really look at the rankings.”
Sounds like a youngster with a good head on his shoulders. And one who’s a great start for your fantasy team.
Sit ‘Em: Charcandrick West, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)
Despite losing a fumble in the fourth quarter against the Minnesota Vikings in a 16-10 loss, West will remain the Chiefs’ No. 1 running back in place of Jamaal Charles, who tore his ACL in Week 5. Head coach Andy Reid told the Kansas City Star‘s Terez A. Paylor that West’s style is similar to Charles’, and it makes sense to slide the 24-year-old into the perennial Pro Bowler’s role.
However, if you’re expecting West to get a Charles-ian amount of touches Sunday against the Steelers, you’ll be sadly mistaken.
Pittsburgh has another one of those lopsided defenses—against the pass, it ranks just 26th in the NFL, but it allows the seventh-fewest rushing yards in the league. Alex Smith may take on a bigger workload than usual, and the running game may be a smaller factor than usual.
Wide Receiver
Start ‘Em: Donte Moncrief, Indianapolis Colts (New Orleans Saints)
Despite the great connection Luck formed with Colts receiver T.Y. Hilton last season in a Pro Bowl season for both players, the 26-year-old quarterback has actually meshed better with Moncrief this season. Luck has accumulated four touchdowns and no interceptions for a 120.2 passer rating when targeting Moncrief but just one score and four picks for a 60.1 rating throwing to Hilton.
Against the Saints, both Hilton and Moncrief look like great starts.
We’ll see who draws which matchup in New Orleans’ secondary, but that unit has struggled all year long, ranking 24th both in passing yards and touchdowns allowed. Cornerback Brandon Browner has been terrible in coverage, and fellow starting corner Keenan Lewis is suffering a hip injury.
Look for big fantasy points in the Colts passing attack.
Sit ‘Em: Brandin Cooks, New Orleans Saints (at Indianapolis Colts)
This is a bold pick, as I do have Cooks’ quarterback, Brees, as a “Start’ Em.” But the Saints’ top receiver heading into the season is a weak No. 1 option (8.07 yards per target and one touchdown all season), and he’s facing one of the best shutdown corners in the league, Vontae Davis.
Don’t be surprised if Brees looks a different way Sunday.
Look for him to target receiver Willie Snead, tight end Benjamin Watson and running back Mark Ingram out of the backfield, who have all put together nice seasons catching the ball. It doesn’t hurt that the Colts pass defense is very weak outside of Davis.
Tight End
Start ‘Em: Charles Clay, Buffalo Bills (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)
Per NFL.com’s Marc Sessler, the Bills will be playing without their top two receivers and Tyrod Taylor in London Sunday. All three of those absences play significantly to Clay’s advantage.
While EJ Manuel isn’t nearly as good as Taylor overall, he’s more of a traditional quarterback who will probably have more passing attempts than the man he’s replacing. In Week 6, Manuel targeted Clay 13 times for nine catches and 62 yards. In Clay’s other five games, Taylor only targeted him 6.4 times per contest.
The Jaguars allow a middle-of-the-pack 14th-most fantasy points to tight ends, but Clay’s other circumstances are too good to leave him on your bench Sunday.
Sit’ Em: Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles (at Carolina Panthers)
Ertz was supposed to have a breakout season with new quarterback Sam Bradford, but both have flopped. The 24-year-old tight end has yet to score, and Bradford and he seem to be on different wavelengths at times.
Half of Ertz‘s yardage this season has come in the past two games, but that was against two of the worst pass defenses in the league in the New Orleans Saints and New York Giants.
Now, he’ll face the Carolina Panthers. Carolina has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season, but superstar middle linebacker Luke Kuechly has only played two games due to a concussion. He and the rest of the vaunted Panthers defense will make sure Ertz doesn’t go off this week.
Kicker
Start ‘Em: Adam Vinatieri, Indianapolis Colts (vs. New Orleans Saints)
Just start the whole Colts offense this week.
In a game that is sure to be a shootout between two explosive offenses and two poor defenses, Indy is poised for a breakout performance at home. Vinatieri struggled to start the season, missing his first two field goals, but now he’s made his last five and should be good for a couple more against New Orleans.
The Saints have allowed the most fantasy points per game to kickers over the last four weeks, per NFL.com’s Michael Fabiano. The combination of that and the Colts offense makes Vinatieri an obvious start.
Sit ‘Em: Matt Bryant, Atlanta Falcons (at Tennessee Titans)
This feels like a weird pick because the Falcons have a very good offense and the Titans defense isn’t formidable at all.
However, Tennessee has allowed only one field-goal attempt to an opposing kicker this season and allows the fewest fantasy points per game to that position this season.
The Titans will either stop you before you get in field-goal range or they’ll let you score a touchdown. There is very little in between. Combine that with Devonta Freeman being Mr. Reliable, finishing drives with touchdowns in the red zone, and it’s not looking good for the Falcons’ 40-year-old kicker.
Bryant may have a decent amount of extra points in Tennessee Sunday, but there’s a very good chance he doesn’t get many (if any) field-goal attempts.
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