Say goodbye to Rob Gronkowski and others as bye weeks around the NFL begin.
Of course, this shouldn’t worry owners too much heading into Week 4 start ’em, sit ’em decisions. The start to this season has felt wilder than usual, with all sorts of productive players popping up out of nowhere to save lineups.
Stars like Gronk will still provide the backbone of lineups, though. To put owners in a better situation heading into Week 4, let’s take a moment to break down some of the week’s interesting value comparisons and take a closer look at some stars to play and bench.
QB
Star to Know: Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers (at TB)
Cam Newton is the league’s MVP. Almost has to be.
Newton has the Carolina Panthers at 3-0 and has taken fantasy owners along for the ride, despite the fact that his starting wideouts are Ted Ginn and Corey Brown. Week 1 was a dud from a fantasy standpoint, but he’s followed with 26 and 29 points.
Another epic performance seems to be in the cards. Newton travels to Tampa Bay to next encounter a Buccaneers defense that surrendered 24 points and four passing touchdowns to Tennessee Titans rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota in Week 1.
Through a combination of passing and rushing, Newton looks like a lock to break the 25-point barrier against the struggling unit.
Star to Bench: Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (at SEA)
Matthew Stafford’s ownership percentage has dipped below 70 percent for good reason.
The Detroit Lions signal-caller has totaled just 41 points in three contests, dealing with a nagging injury and five interceptions in the process. His offensive line isn’t protecting him well, and he’s hardly getting Calvin Johnson involved because he isn’t stretching the field deep anymore.
All the above sounds terrible ahead of an encounter with the Seattle Seahawks defense. The Seahawks allowed Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers to post 21 points, sure, but the unit’s two other opponents combined for 21 over two games.
Until the offensive line and Stafford figure things out, he needs to sit on the bench.
RB
Star to Know: Melvin Gordon, San Diego Chargers (vs. CLE)
It’s a matter of time before an efficient young back seeing plenty of opportunities explodes.
Meaning, it’s a matter of time before San Diego Chargers rookie Melvin Gordon posts a monster game.
Gordon has received at least 14 carries per game so far. He’s yet to reach the end zone or post eye-popping fantasy numbers, but owners seem encouraged based on his 96.7 ownership percentage.
They should be—the visiting Cleveland Browns have already surrendered 487 total yards to running backs, three rushing scores and outings of 27 and 28 points.
Seeing the consistency of chances and the opponent, owners shouldn’t hesitate.
Star to Bench: Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins (vs. NYJ)
To Lamar Miller’s 95.9 percent of owners: It’s impossible to explain what the Miami Dolphins are doing with their lead back.
Miller has 30 carries on the season through three games. He’s eclipsed 50 yards once, hasn’t scored and his highest point total comes in at a whopping seven. Given epic past fantasy performances, there’s no good explanation for the usage other than a new offensive coordinator ignoring the run.
Last week, recently promoted Jonas Gray saw nine carries to Miller’s seven. This week, Miller and his diminishing usage travel to London for an encounter against the New York Jets, a defense that has allowed just one double-digit outing to a backfield so far.
Until the coaching staff decides to use the team’s most talented runner, Miller must sit on benches in every fantasy league.
WR
Star to Know: Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders (at CHI)
There’s no question rookie Amari Cooper of the Oakland Raiders is already one of fantasy’s premier stars.
A Heisman Trophy finalist one year ago, Cooper beat up on Patrick Peterson in the preseason and last week bullied Joe Haden on his way to eight catches for 134 yards and 11 points. The Alabama product has two double-digit outings already, and it would probably be three if quarterback Derek Carr hadn’t left the team’s first game with an injury.
Cooper has caught at least five passes in every contest so far heading into a date with the Chicago Bears. The defendants of Soldier Field seem to have already given up on the season—and defending wideouts long before that considering the unit has allowances of 31, 39 and 18 points to wideout cores.
In other words, Cooper might post his best outing of his young career Sunday. No reason to doubt the rookie now.
Star to Bench: Andre Johnson, Indianapolis Colts (vs. JAC)
A new star receiver enters the stage, another exits.
In theory, Andre Johnson was in for an epic fantasy season after joining Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts this offseason.
Instead, his ownership percentage has dipped by 13.7 points in the last week alone for good reason.
There’s no need to get cute with Johnson now. He has four points in three games on seven catches. He’s taken a backseat to both T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief while the offense struggles to get anything going.
A matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars seems incredible provided the defense has already allowed a minimum of 22 points to receivers in two games. But Johnson is the third weapon on the passing attack at best, and the Colts might score a few times and then ride Frank Gore to a victory, not continue taking to the air.
Johnson shouldn’t keep posting this miserable clip all season, but there’s no reason to throw him into a good matchup until he can prove himself reliable in a new locale.
TE
Star to Know: Charles Clay, Buffalo Bills (vs. NYG)
Charles Clay hasn’t been the most reliable tight end this season, but it’s not saying much at such an erratic position.
Besides, what’s wrong with a bit of unstable play from a tight end when his upcoming matchup is so reliable?
Clay had a breakout game last weekend with five catches for 82 yards and a score for 14 points, his first trip to double digits on the season. What should entice owners (who have boosted Clay’s ownership by 35.4 percent this week with Gronk out) is a matchup with the New York Giants, a team that has allowed four tight ends to score at least six points already.
New York’s defense doesn’t seem to realize tight ends take the field, which means Clay should make it three straight games reaching paydirt.
Star to Bench: Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings (at DEN)
Kyle Rudolph of the Minnesota Vikings remains one of the most physically gifted tight ends in the league, but he’s yet to find stable footing this year in the offense.
While Rudolph has five catches in two of his three outings this year, he has just one score and 15 total points to show for the effort. Minnesota focuses on Adrian Peterson in the backfield, especially considering Rudolph’s team-high target mark hasn’t translated to much yet.
Opportunities most of the time equal production, but not for Rudolph on a trip to Denver. The Broncos have kept any and all comers in check, including holding the position’s second-highest scorer, Travis Kelce, to four catches for 58 yards.
Minnesota will want to play a ball-control offense with AP to keep Peyton Manning off the field, meaning Rudolph looks poised for another quiet outing. Owners don’t get points for his blocking in the running game well.
All scoring info courtesy of ESPN standard leagues, as is points-against info and ownership stats as of October 1. Statistics courtesy of ESPN. Tennessee, New England on bye.
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