Welcome to the dog days of bye weeks, fantasy owners.
Six teams sit on byes in Week 9, meaning no Carson Palmer, Marshawn Lynch, DeAndre Hopkins or Detroit Lions.
Just kidding about the last part.
In all seriousness, owners don’t have an easy start ’em, sit ’em task ahead, so let’s cut out the legwork and analyze some value-based comparisons and point out some notable start-sit options to watch this week.
QB
Start: Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins (at BUF)
Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill isn’t the greatest option on a week-to-week basis, but he’s a go this weekend against the Buffalo Bills.
Tannehill only posted eight points in a game against the New England Patriots last week, but he has 15 or more points in a game four times this year. It’s all about the matchup, and one of those 15-point outbursts came against these Bills in Week 3.
The Bills sound like a scary defense on paper, but the truth is the unit allows the 12th most points to the position on average. Tannehill knows how to play the unit, and if he can avoid tossing three picks like he did last time out, he’ll go for more than 15 points easily.
Sit: Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts (vs. DEN)
This won’t be an easy decision for the 99.7 percent who own him, but it’s time to toss Andrew Luck on the bench.
There’s just too much chaos around the Indianapolis Colts right now, especially after the front office let go of offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
It’s hard to say how this will impact Luck, who has two or more picks in four games this year. To top it all off, the Denver Broncos allow the fewest points on average to the position, having allowed just two opposing quarterbacks to reach double digits this year.
RB
Start: Chris Ivory, New York Jets (vs. JAC)
It’s time for owners to believe in New York Jets lead back Chris Ivory again.
Yes, Ivory has just 14 total points over his last two games, but he still ranks as fantasy’s fifth-highest scorer at the position. With quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick struggling with an injury, Ivory’s going to see his usual heavy workload and then some against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
That is nothing but good news. The Jaguars rank among the 10 worst teams against the position in fantasy scoring this year, having allowed 19 or more points to opposing backfields three times, two of those coming in at 40 or more.
Ivory won’t go for 40, but 20 might be a floor for one of the league’s lone high-usage backs.
Sit: Latavius Murray, Oakland Raiders (at PIT)
The Oakland Raiders might be one of the league’s top surprises this year, but it doesn’t mean owners should blanket roll out starters from the offense.
Lead back Latavius Murray is proof enough. The 25-year-old has four trips to double digits but three games with seven points or fewer, two of those outings coming against strong defenses.
Next up is a date with the Pittsburgh Steelers, a defense that allows the third-fewest points to running backs on average and has held four entire backfields to fewer than 10 points.
Murray is an explosive, versatile young player, but a road encounter with the Steelers should have owners looking elsewhere for help.
WR
Start: Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. OAK)
Owners have every right to be wary of Pittsburgh’s Antonio Brown, who went three consecutive games without reaching double digits while Ben Roethlisberger recovered from an injury.
Big Ben is back, though, and last week was proof enough Brown returns to WR1 status regardless of matchup after he caught six passes for 47 yards and a score—good for 10 points—against a strong Cincinnati Bengals defense.
Believe it or not, Oakland ranks among the top 12 teams against fantasy wideouts this year and has surrendered just two scores. Brown might not score, but given the epic volume he sees with Big Ben under center, it doesn’t figure to matter.
Look for Brown to have one of his best performances to date in a game his team cannot afford to lose.
Sit: Jordan Matthews, Philadelphia Eagles (at DAL)
Let’s get this out of the way early—Philadelphia Eagles wideout Jordan Matthews posted one of his two double-digit outings against the Dallas Cowboys back in Week 2.
That doesn’t mean it will happen again.
Matthews has been one of the league’s biggest offenders when it comes to drops, although he won’t place the blame on a potential hand issue, according to Zach Berman of the Philadelphia Inquirer:
Regardless, it’s bad news for a wideout who hasn’t scored more than five points in five consecutive games. Dallas, on the other hand, ranks as a defense allowing the sixth-fewest points to the position.
Matthews will turn things around eventually but not this week.
TE
Start: Martellus Bennett, Chicago Bears (at SD)
Chicago Bears tight end Martellus Bennett hasn’t performed like his usual self from a fantasy standpoint this year, reaching double digits just twice. Last time out, Bennett managed all of three points.
The 28-year-old will turn things around in San Diego this week. The struggling Chargers have allowed four touchdowns to the position this year, half of those coming over the course of the past two weeks.
In what might turn into a shootout between two bad defenses, Bennett will see plenty of chances through the air, so owners shouldn’t be on the hunt for a replacement.
Sit: Jordan Reed, Washington (at NE)
Look, Jordan Reed posted 11 catches for 72 yards and two scores for 19 points in his last appearance.
While great, an explosive outburst in a comeback bid against the woeful Tampa Bay Buccaneers isn’t a good basis for what to expect from Reed, talented as he may be.
Reed has gone for double digits just twice this season, and a matchup with the New England Patriots spells trouble—they have allowed just one double-digit outing to a team’s set of tight ends this year, and it came back in Week 3.
No group of tight ends has scored more than four points against the unit since, so owners will want to look elsewhere for help.
All scoring info courtesy of ESPN standard leagues, as are points-against info and ownership stats as of Nov. 4. Statistics courtesy of ESPN. Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, Arizona Cardinals, Seattle Seahawks, Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans on bye.
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