Unlike the San Francisco 49ers, fantasy football owners can survive a bad stretch going into Week 8.
It all boils down to the right start ’em, sit ’em decisions, which on a deeper level dives into matchup-based plays and sleepers. Last week, the former was all about someone such as Indianapolis Colts wideout T.Y. Hilton, who posted 27 points in a good situation. The latter was about someone such as San Diego Chargers tight end Ladarius Green in the sleeper role before posting 14.
Some may want a break, but it’s never too early to get a head start on the next week’s decisions. Here’s a look at the top values against one another to determine who has the most value, plus a look at start ’em, sit ’em matchup plays and sleepers.
QB
Top Matchup Play: Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers (at BAL)
San Diego’s Philip Rivers is on absolute fire over the course of the past month and just landed as the fourth-highest scorer at the position before Monday thanks to 25 points against Oakland.
That should be the floor for Rivers in Week 8.
Rivers gets the woeful Baltimore Ravens next, the team that entered Week 7 allowing the most points to quarterbacks on average. Through its first six games, half of the team’s opponents have found their way to 26 points or more.
Easy money here, folks. Rivers has gone for 20 or more in five of seven outings. It’ll be six with plenty of room to spare.
Sleeper: Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings (at CHI)
It’s quite simple to overlook Minnesota Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who is almost the definition of a matchup-based play, especially on an offense running through Adrian Peterson.
Bridgewater has hit 18 points twice, with both outings coming against the Detroit Lions, both a miserable defense and familiar divisional opponent.
Hey, that sounds like the Chicago Bears.
The hapless Bears have already allowed 15 touchdown tosses to quarterbacks. Bridgewater won’t have any issues taking advantage of this situation, especially with great deep threats such as Mike Wallace and Stefon Diggs able to shake free deep with the Bears focused on Peterson.
RB
Top Matchup Play: Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at ATL)
As one should be able to tell from the value comparison above, the showdown between the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers should be a hotbed for running back production.
While he doesn’t overrule his counterpart from a sheer projection standpoint, Doug Martin of the Buccaneers sits in by far the best matchup of Week 8.
Martin looks like his old self, having posted 16 or more points in each of his last three outings, including a 33-point outburst in Week 5. Said outburst might be possible again in Atlanta against a defense that surrendered 10 touchdowns to running backs in just six games to start the season.
With Tampa Bay hoping to control the pace, Martin should see the most touches of any back on the week.
Sleeper: Charcandrick West, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. DET)
Owners gave up on Kansas City Chiefs running back Charcandrick West too quickly.
He had a dud of a performance two weeks ago, prompting a 12.7 percent dip in his ownership rate. The remaining 67.4 percent of owners were rewarded with 18 points in Week 7 while he took over as lead back.
Now West takes this momentum and assured playing time against the Detroit Lions, owners of a defense that allowed 22 or more points to opposing backfields in four of its first six games.
With West seeing the majority of the workload, he’s sure to have a great floor for those owners willing to look past the rocky debut a few weeks back.
WR
Top Matchup Play: Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions (at KC)
It seems Megatron is rounding into form just in time for a great matchup.
Calvin Johnson didn’t do much for the Detroit Lions over the team’s first five games, but he now touts a touchdown in each of his last two outings to go with outputs of at least 14 points.
Thank better line play and play-calling from the coaches. Now Johnson gets to run roughshod on the league’s worst secondary, as the Kansas City Chiefs have allowed 12 touchdowns to wideouts through seven games.
At the least, Megatron should be able to find paydirt against the woeful unit, giving him a floor as the best matchup play of the week.
Sleeper: Ted Ginn Jr., Carolina Panthers (vs. IND)
Every owner seemed to shake their head at the Carolina offense after Kelvin Benjamin’s injury, but Ted Ginn Jr. has stepped in well to fill a fantasy role.
Owned in just 33.8 percent of leagues, Ginn has totaled nine or more points three times already and found paydirt three times. Last week he caught five passes for 59 yards and nine points, something that hints he isn’t just a touchdown-based producer after all.
That’s nothing short of good news ahead of an encounter with the Indianapolis Colts. The defense has allowed at least two touchdowns to wideouts three times already, suggesting Ginn should be able to score again this week if he can break free deep.
Owners in a pinch could do much worse if on the hunt for a combustible sleeper.
TE
Top Matchup Play: Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys (vs. SEA)
Old reliable Jason Witten hasn’t been as explosive as some owners would prefer, but the top threat on the Dallas Cowboys continues to provide mostly steady production despite an iffy quarterback situation.
Witten has five or more points in five of six games this year as the team’s safety valve. He’s a lock for similar production against the Seattle Seahawks, owners of a defense that coughed up five touchdowns to tight ends in just six games to start the season.
In what could be a defensive-minded encounter, Witten will see plenty of chances with the ball in his hands, making him the top play of the week.
Sleeper: Larry Donnell, New York Giants (at NO)
New York Giants tight end Larry Donnell is very much a touchdown-based play.
When he’s in such a matchup, though, there’s little excuse to ignore him. Donnell has eight or more points in the two games he’s scored a touchdown this year, something he should be able to do against the New Orleans Saints, a unit that has allowed half of opposing tight ends faced to score 14 or more points over its first six games.
In a dome-based shootout, Donnell will see plenty of chances to score from within 20 yards, making him a bankable sleeper for those in need.
All scoring info courtesy of ESPN standard leagues, as is points-against info and ownership stats as of October 26. Statistics courtesy of ESPN. Buffalo, Philadelphia, Washington, Jacksonville on bye.
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