Going into Week 4, fantasy football owners should have a strong understanding about what an unfavorable matchup can do to an entire lineup.
As a brief example, San Francisco 49ers lead back Carlos Hyde and his 98.9 percent of owners suffered last week in the desert against the Arizona Cardinals, leading to just six points.
It’s been one of those years for owners so far. Production is all over the place as the finer details settle into place, injuries strike and more.
Below, let’s make the Week 4 start ’em, sit ’em decisions a tad easier on owners by not only looking at the overarching positions as a whole, but zooming in and applying a verdict to some of the week’s worst matchups.
QB
Unfavorable Matchup Breakdown: Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers (vs. CLE)
Owners still believe in San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers, hence his 83.3 ownership percentage.
It makes sense. Rivers hasn’t had the strong start to the season most would expect, but an injured offensive line and road encounters with the Cincinnati Bengals and Minnesota Vikings can make lives difficult for most.
Rivers has just 20, 13 and nine points this year with five touchdowns to four interceptions. Now he returns home and looks at a matchup with the Cleveland Browns, owners of a defense that has allowed just one quarterback to reach the 20-point mark.
More pressing, though, is the woeful state of the offensive line, explained by Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune:
On Sunday against the Cleveland Browns, the Chargers could very well, due to injuries, be without their regular starters at left tackle, left guard and center. Their right guard will again play on a bum ankle. Their right tackle will probably start at left tackle. A backup center who was signed Tuesday and introduced himself around the locker room Wednesday will be active, as will a tackle who was on the practice squad last week.
The silver lining? Rivers is by far the best quarterback the Browns have faced to date, the others being Ryan Fitzpatrick, Marcus Mariota and Derek Carr.
This seems like a gamble either way, but with Rivers at home—the site of his strongest performance of the season—and the Browns coming off a loss and their worst performance of the year against quarterbacks, it’s best to trust Rivers can make the best of a rough situation.
Verdict: Start.
RB
Unfavorable Matchup Breakdown: Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. KC)
Through three games, Jeremy Hill of the Cincinnati Bengals might be fantasy’s biggest disappointment.
Hill exploded onto the scene in the second half of his rookie season last year and looked like his usual self in Week 1, scoring 18 points by way of 63 yards and two scores.
He turned around and scored minus-one point in Week 2 and two points in Week 3.
The issue with Hill would be fumbles. He coughed up the ball twice in Week 2 and watched from the sidelines as Giovani Bernard handled the workload the rest of the way, then he received fewer carries than his complement last week.
Despite the issues, offensive coordinator Hue Jackson hasn’t budged on his stance with Hill, per Paul Dehner Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer:
It’s a good sign except for the fact the Kansas City Chiefs rank as the fourth-best team against backs on average this year, having yet to give up a rushing touchdown.
Some of the impressive numbers have to do with just how terrible the unit’s secondary has defended the pass, but it still doesn’t shed a promising light on Hill’s outlook.
Still, if one believes Jackson, there is an opportunity for a slick play here. Part of this unfavorable matchup centers on Kansas City’s strong schedule. The Houston Texans didn’t have Arian Foster, the Denver Broncos aren’t a quality rushing team and Green Bay Packers lead back Eddie Lacy attempted 10 rushes in a shootout.
In Cincinnati, look for the Bengals to keep things balanced and for Hill to have a big day.
Verdict: Start.
WR
Unfavorable Matchup Breakdown: DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans (at ATL)
In a quiet manner, DeAndre Hopkins of the Houston Texans looks like one of fantasy’s most reliable players.
As a whole, Nuk doesn’t sit in the sexiest of situations. He has yet to see the field at the same time as the injured Arian Foster and his quarterbacks have been Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett. To top it all off, he’s had to play the Chiefs and the strong defenses of the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
None of the above details has stopped Nuk from posting mostly strong numbers:
What should really stick out are the catch numbers. Hopkins has 10 more targets than anyone else on the team and has seen at least 11 in each game.
So what’s the problem? The Texans take to the road for an encounter with the Atlanta Falcons, owners of a defense giving up the third-fewest points to wideouts on average. In the unit’s biggest test of the season, a Week 2 encounter with the New York Giants on the road, it allowed just 12 catches for 173 yards and a score for 21 points.
Owners have to decide whether the Atlanta defense is playing above what it should, or if Nuk‘s record-setting pace of targets will overwhelm the secondary and produce a quality outing.
Bank on the latter. The Giants’ offense isn’t much better than Houston’s when it comes to viable threats. Odell Beckham Jr. saw 12 targets and managed to turn it into 20 points. Nuk can do the same, with it seemingly a given that he’s going to see an epic number of targets yet again.
Verdict: Start.
TE
Unfavorable Matchup Breakdown: Jordan Cameron, Miami Dolphins (vs. NYJ)
Fantasy owners thought they had something with Jordan Cameron when he joined the Miami Dolphins this past offseason.
Cameron had shown some big-play ability with a few monster outings in Cleveland, but owners wondered what he could do with a better quarterback. Then he joined Miami, quarterback Ryan Tannehill and a host of talented weapons—on paper.
Through three games, Cameron has scored seven, six and one. The first two games came against Washington and the Jacksonville Jaguars.
To make matters worse, he’s listed as questionable for the team’s game in London against the New York Jets, per the team’s official website. That said, he carried the same tag into last week’s game and still received eight targets.
The Jets aren’t a team to take lightly when it comes to tight ends, though. They have allowed just eight points to the position this year, the same number of receptions players have managed.
In London while dealing with a nagging injury, it’s best to throw Cameron on the bench. This is especially the case at a position with such unreliable production on a week-to-week basis.
Verdict: Sit.
All scoring info courtesy of ESPN standard leagues, as is points-against info and ownership stats as of Oct. 3. Statistics courtesy of ESPN. Tennessee, New England on bye.
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