The hottest NFL player doesn’t always make the best daily fantasy play.
Scoring three touchdowns in back-to-back weeks, Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman has led several DraftKings contestants to paydays over the past two games. He’ll prove a popular play as everyone hopes for another hat trick, but he’s not the best Week 5 value.
Washington, the Falcons’ upcoming opponent, has surrendered the fewest DraftKings points to running backs this season. High ownership rates would also reduce his tournament worth.
Not all of these matchup picks instill much confidence with their performance. A few have crouched below massive expectations, and others have proved merely OK. This weekend, however, presents the perfect scenario for all of them to flourish.
QB Sam Bradford, Philadelphia Eagles ($6,000)
In his best fantasy outing of the season, Sam Bradford compiled 270 yards and three passing touchdowns during Week 4’s loss to Washington. As noted by ESPN Stats and Info, the Philadelphia Eagles quarterback finally threw the ball deep after failing to do so in September:
“It’s not something that we’ve been trying to shy away from; it just hasn’t really presented itself until last Sunday,” Bradford told the Philadelphia Inquirer‘s Jeff McLane. “Now that it’s out there teams have to respect us pushing the ball down the field.”
Perfect timing for DFS gamers, as New Orleans has offered up an NFL-high 9.8 yards per pass attempt while netting Pro Football Focus‘ worst pass coverage grade. Only the Kansas City Chiefs, who coughed up five touchdowns to Aaron Rodgers in Week 3, have yielded more DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks.
Bradford, averaging 6.54 yards per attempt, isn’t out of the clear yet. The breakout pick has underwhelmed, and his $6,900 Week 1 price has accordingly dipped to $6,000. Before handing Eagles head coach Chip Kelly a pink slip, remember that his offense made Mark Sanchez a competent fantasy starter last year.
RB T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,400)
Matt Forte. Adrian Peterson. They are the only two running backs with more carries than T.J. Yeldon‘s 70 through Week 4. The Jacksonville Jaguars rookie has twice received over 20 carries, parlaying 22 rushes against the Indianapolis Colts into his first career 100-yard outing.
While most teams mix and match in the backfield, the Jaguars have firmly committed to the neophyte. Josh Moore of 4for4 Fantasy Football examined his massive presence in their offense:
In close games, Yeldon gets fed. He has accrued 52 touches in the two games decided by three points compared to 28 in another pair of double-digit defeats. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are one of few teams arguably worse than Jacksonville, who at least won’t get blown out.
A byproduct of constantly trailing, opponents have ran 34.5 times per game against Tampa Bay, who yield 4.2 yards per rush with Pro Football Focus‘ worst grade against the run. Yeldon will get every opportunity to succeed on Sunday. Few flex options have the same luxury.
WR Brandin Cooks, New Orleans Saints ($5,900)
If Brandin Cooks doesn’t break out this week, he never will.
The Eagles rank 29th in DraftKings points allowed to wide receivers. According to Football Outsiders, No. 1 wideouts have registered 103.5 yards per game against them, most recently permitting seven catches for 55 yards and a touchdown to Washington’s Pierre Garcon.
Cooks has received 31 targets through four games, but he has not blossomed in the Saints offense. The 22-year-old sophomore is still searching for his first score and has only 215 yards on the season. NFL Network analyst Brian Billick isn’t the first to suggest he’s miscast as a top target:
Starting the season at $7,100, Cooks now costs $5,900, which still gives him some benefit of the doubt. Give him one more chance due to the circumstances, but cut off that loyalty if he falters.
TE Owen Daniels, Denver Broncos ($2,700)
Why fight something that keeps working? This shouldn’t be news to any fantasy players, but the Oakland Raiders cannot stop opposing tight ends.
After Chicago’s Martellus Bennett extended the streak of starting tight ends scoring at least once, Oakland has now relinquished six touchdowns to the position. Per ESPN.com, they also rank last in targets (45), receptions (32) and yards (388) allowed.
Owen Daniels will test Oakland’s futility on Sunday. The veteran hasn’t cashed in on his pairing with Peyton Manning, averaging a putrid 5.1 yards per catch and 0.46 yards per route. While he has reached the end zone in consecutive games, he has only managed 12 catches and 61 yards this season.
Given those numbers, two touchdowns don’t establish Daniels as Manning’s new security blanket. But Cleveland’s Gary Barnidge rode this matchup to 106 yards and a touchdown with Josh McCown throwing him the football. Priced at only $2,700, Daniels’ diminishing skills are worth the risk due to the golden matchup.
D/ST New York Giants ($2,800)
For a defense with no-name linebackers and shaky safeties, the New York Giants have done all right.
They’ve limited the enemy to diminishing point tallies every week, stifling the Buffalo Bills to 10 last weekend. Producing five sacks, five interceptions and three fumble recoveries, they have averaged a solid 8.8 DraftKings points per game.
Although they have allowed the most passing yards, the Giants have also surrendered the fewest running yards. A dangerous dichotomy against most adversaries works well versus the San Francisco 49ers, whose only competent performance resulted from a Carlos Hyde outburst.
As long as they restrain Hyde, who has rushed for 114 combined yards since gaining 168 in Week 1, they’ll enjoy Sunday night’s soiree against San Francisco. No team has provided more fantasy points to defenses.
Note: Pricing and scoring information obtained from DraftKings.com.
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