Opening weekend (September 7th) is right around the corner and with a few key injuries and suspensions already making headlines, now is the time to start digging deeper into expectations for each team. Today we will take a look at the NFC North.
Click Here To Get All Fully Hands-Free Football Betting Picks!GREEN BAY PACKERS
Last season: 10-6
BetOnline O/U wins: 10.5
As long as Aaron Rodgers is the Packers QB, it’s hard to consider any other team for the NFC North. Green Bay won the division for the 5th time in 6 years and it doesn’t look there is a team to challenge them this season.
Adding Martellus Bennett gives Rodgers another weapon and, while there are a few questions on offensive line and running back, Green Bay should be just fine offensively. On the defensive side, the Packers upgraded a struggling secondary in the draft but pass defense should still be an area of concern.
Given the weak division and the importance of keeping guys healthy, I think the 10.5 wins is a touch too high. Looking at the under 10.5 wins is a solid play.
DETROIT LIONS
Last season: 9-7
BetOnline O/U wins: 7.5
Detroit snuck into the playoffs last year despite losing their last four regular season games. While Matthew Stafford was able to save a few wins with game winning drives, the defense was a huge liability.
The Lions used the offseason to upgrade across the board on defense but the underlying problems still remain. We can use a few key 2016 stats to project the Lions’ 2017 season…
Detroit won zero games against playoff teams last season. Detroit had a negative point differential. Stafford led eight 4th quarter game-winning drives, tying the record for most in a season.
With Stafford’s 4th quarter magic unlikely to happen again, Detroit could take a big step back this season. The win total opened at 8 and is now at 7.5 making this an easy pass.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Last season: 8-8
BetOnline O/U wins: 8.5
The Vikings did an admirable job dealing with the loss of Teddy Bridgewater and Adrian Peterson last season, winning their first 5 games and finishing with 8 wins. Sam Bradford will start again this season as Bridgewater most likely will miss at least the first 6 games.
Defensively, the Vikings took a step back last season but should be able to improve. The problem for Minnesota is on the offensive side of the ball. The Vikings ranked 28th in total yards and bottom ten in points per game.
Given Bradford is what he is at this point, I don’t think the Vikings can improve on the 8 wins of last season. With the under 8.5 wins at a still affordable -125, I think there is some value taking the under.
CHICAGO BEARS
Last season: 3-13
BetOnline O/U wins: 5.5
Injuries and the combination of Jay Cutler/Brian Hoyer/Matt Barkley at quarterback doomed the Bears in 2016. Cutler is gone and Mike Glennon is now the stopgap until Mitch Trubisky is ready.
Glennon is definitely not the long term answer and the Bears will once again have problems offensively. The same degree of problems exist on the defensive side of the ball and, after winning only 3 games last season, the Bears product on the field might not be that much different.
But given the injuries last season, they should have a little luck on their side in that regard. With a win total of 5.5 at plus odds, taking a shot at the over is a solid value play.
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