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🏈 3-0 again! We are on fire. NFL WEEK 5 picks

Betting on Football
October 7, 2017

Sweep! Another 3-0 ATS in Week 4 which improves our YTD to 10-2. Let’s see if we can keep it going with a few potential plays for Week 5. The main strategy I want to implement is fading the public. Books are always looking to exploit public perception so hopefully we can find a few winners by fading the public in a few heavily public-bet games. Obviously, this is written on Wednesday (10/4) so always keep an eye on the changing lines and percentages.

BUFFALO @ CINCINNATI
2

The Bills are coming off an impressive win over Atlanta and the public has taken notice.

This is a potential letdown spot for Buffalo after a big win and now having to travel to Cincinnati. The Bengals quietly got their first win of the season and are in a great spot at home to give a big effort. Let’s take Cincinnati -2.5 (5Dimes)

GREEN BAY @ DALLAS

Dallas laid a huge egg at home last week and the betting public has jumped off the band wagon.

2

While Green Bay has looked solid, they have played the Bengals and Bears in back to back weeks so the Cowboys will be a big upgrade in opponents. Dallas, after a bad loss at home, will be hungry for a win and we should see a great effort from them. Let’s take Dallas -1 (5Dimes)

KANSAS CITY @ HOUSTON

The Chiefs are the only undefeated team left in the league and the public is all aboard the KC train.

3

Winning on the road is hard in the NFL and, with a short week to prepare, this could be the week Kansas City picks up their first loss. Houston, and Deshaun Watson, had a breakout win last week and will be riding a wave of momentum at home once again. Let’s take Houston +1 (BetOnline)

Like I mentioned, we have a few days until these games take place with lots of wagering in between so keeping an eye on the lines and percentages throughout the week is important. Fading the public is very successful when the public side is 80%+ so keep that in mind as the week progresses and the betting volume grows.

Like all sports investing, this strategy is most effective over the course of an entire season. Use consistent money management and stick to the plan in order to maximize profit. As always, using ZCode’s Line Reversals Tool is a great way to stay on top of all the action.

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