win

Another great week for NFL

Miami Dolphins versus Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons come in at 3-1 and a huge 11-point favorite over the 2-2 Dolphins. The last meeting between the teams was in 2013 when the Dolphins won as a home favorite. This game looks overwhelmingly in favor of Atlanta. They hold a +31 to +6 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator. Similarly, the Falcons are “burning hot” on the Team Strength Oscillator compared to “ice cold down” for the Dolphins. Miami could cover if they play an excellent game, but look for the Falcons to win at home and improve to 4-1 on the season.

Detroit Lions versus New Orleans Saints

The Lions are coming off a tough loss at home to the Carolina Panthers. Sitting at 3-2, they take on the 2-2 Saints, who are a 4.5 point favorite. Detroit has won the last two meetings in 2016 and 2015 as road underdogs. The Saints are in the top ten in Team Volatility, which makes their favorite status a big more meaningful. The teams are nearly even on the Team Strength Oscillator, while the Lions hold a huge +22 to +8 edge in the Power Ranking Indicator. The Lions are the better team and despite the Saints being favorites, I expect Detroit to win their third straight against the Saints as road underdogs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers versus Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals come in at 2-3 after a 34-7 blowout loss to the Philadelphia Eagles last week. They are a 2.5 point underdog against the 2-2 Buccaneers. The Cardinals won as a home favorite in their last meeting in 2016. The teams are nearly identical according to the Team Strength Oscillator and Power Ranking Indicator. Tampa Bay is fourth in the NFL in Team Volatility, meaning they generally win as favorites and lose as underdogs. This it the deciding factor in a close match up. Take the Buccaneers to win as the road underdog to improve to 3-2 on the season.

Pittsburgh Steelers versus Kansas City Chiefs

The 3-2 Steelers head to Kansas City to take on the unbeaten Chiefs, who are a 4 point favorite. The Chiefs are tied for first in Team Volatility, meaning they are probably an excellent bet this week as a favorite. The Chiefs are +5.23 and “burning hot” on the Team Strength Oscillator versus +2.87 and “average” status for the Steelers. Similarly, the Chiefs hold a +31 to +23 edge on the Power Ranking Indicator. The Steelers won both meetings between the teams last season. Although the Chiefs are bound to lose at some point, it wont be this week.

Green Bay Packers versus Minnesota Vikings

In this classic NFC Central match up, the 4-1 Packers take on the 3-2 Vikings. The teams split last year’s meeting, each winning at home. Green bay is “hot” and +3.4 on the Team Strength Oscillator versus -0.85 for the Vikings. A significant advantage to the Packers is seen on the Power Ranking Indicator, +27 to +13. The final piece of information leaning me towards the Packers is they are in the top ten in Team Volatility. As a 3.5 point road favorite, look for the Packers to take down the Vikings and move to 5-1.

San Francisco 49ers versus Washington Redskins

The 49ers come in as perhaps the worst team in the NFL at 0-5. They are a 9.5 point underdog against the 2-2 Washington Redskins. The 49ers won last meeting between the teams in 2014 as home favorite, but this is clearly a different team. They are -4.65 with a “dead” status no the Team Strength Oscillator and 0 on the Power Ranking Indicator. The Redskins aren’t a super powerhouse team, but plenty good enough to defeat the 49ers this week.

Unlock our picks for ALL of the NFL regular season games at http://www.nerdyfootball.com/betting

Sweep! 3-0 ATS in Week 3 which improves our YTD to 7-2. Let’s see if we can keep it going with a few potential plays for Week 4. The main strategy I want to implement is fading the public. Books are always looking to exploit public perception so hopefully we can find a few winners by fading the public in a few heavily public-bet games. Obviously, this is written on Tuesday (9/26) so always keep an eye on the changing lines and percentages.

JACKSONVILLE @ NEW YORK JETS

While the Jets quietly beat a bad Dolphins team, the public took notice as Jacksonville dominated Baltimore in London.

It’s always tough to play the next week after being in London and the Jets will be looking to carry the momentum from their first win of the season into this week. Let’s take New York +3.5 (BetOnline)

CAROLINA @ NEW ENGLAND

The Panthers were awful last week against the Saints and the Patriots were able to sneak away with a close win over Houston. As always, New England is a huge public favorite:

While Carolina has been struggling offensively all season, New England has historically had problems with mobile quarterbacks and this could be the game that Cam Newton breaks out. With such one-sided action we are able to get a solid underdog at a great number. Let’s take Carolina +10 (5Dimes)

TENNESSEE @ HOUSTON

We’re going to take a little different strategy with this game. The Titans are coming off a huge win over Seattle while Houston hung tough but came up short against New England. I think there will be some separation in the percentages but as of now the public is relatively split.

I think Houston is the sharp side and catching this line early will allow us to get a few points. The Texans return home after a tough loss while the Titans are in a potential letdown spot. Let’s take Houston +2(Bookmaker)

Like I mentioned, we have a few days until these games take place with lots of wagering in between so keeping an eye on the lines and percentages throughout the week is important. Fading the public is very successful when the public side is 80%+ so keep that in mind as the week progresses and the betting volume grows.

Like all sports investing, this strategy is most effective over the course of an entire season. Use consistent money management and stick to the plan in order to maximize profit. As always, using ZCode’s Line Reversals Tool is a great way to stay on top of all the action.

Unlock our picks for ALL of the NFL regular season games at http://www.nerdyfootball.com/betting

Did you follow? Here is the recap for week 1

Unlock our picks for ALL of the NFL regular season games at http://www.nerdyfootball.com/betting