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🏈 NFL Predictions: Week 6

Betting on Football
October 12, 2017

Another great week for NFL


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Miami Dolphins versus Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons come in at 3-1 and a huge 11-point favorite over the 2-2 Dolphins. The last meeting between the teams was in 2013 when the Dolphins won as a home favorite. This game looks overwhelmingly in favor of Atlanta. They hold a +31 to +6 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator. Similarly, the Falcons are “burning hot” on the Team Strength Oscillator compared to “ice cold down” for the Dolphins. Miami could cover if they play an excellent game, but look for the Falcons to win at home and improve to 4-1 on the season.

Detroit Lions versus New Orleans Saints

The Lions are coming off a tough loss at home to the Carolina Panthers. Sitting at 3-2, they take on the 2-2 Saints, who are a 4.5 point favorite. Detroit has won the last two meetings in 2016 and 2015 as road underdogs. The Saints are in the top ten in Team Volatility, which makes their favorite status a big more meaningful. The teams are nearly even on the Team Strength Oscillator, while the Lions hold a huge +22 to +8 edge in the Power Ranking Indicator. The Lions are the better team and despite the Saints being favorites, I expect Detroit to win their third straight against the Saints as road underdogs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers versus Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals come in at 2-3 after a 34-7 blowout loss to the Philadelphia Eagles last week. They are a 2.5 point underdog against the 2-2 Buccaneers. The Cardinals won as a home favorite in their last meeting in 2016. The teams are nearly identical according to the Team Strength Oscillator and Power Ranking Indicator. Tampa Bay is fourth in the NFL in Team Volatility, meaning they generally win as favorites and lose as underdogs. This it the deciding factor in a close match up. Take the Buccaneers to win as the road underdog to improve to 3-2 on the season.

Pittsburgh Steelers versus Kansas City Chiefs

The 3-2 Steelers head to Kansas City to take on the unbeaten Chiefs, who are a 4 point favorite. The Chiefs are tied for first in Team Volatility, meaning they are probably an excellent bet this week as a favorite. The Chiefs are +5.23 and “burning hot” on the Team Strength Oscillator versus +2.87 and “average” status for the Steelers. Similarly, the Chiefs hold a +31 to +23 edge on the Power Ranking Indicator. The Steelers won both meetings between the teams last season. Although the Chiefs are bound to lose at some point, it wont be this week.

Green Bay Packers versus Minnesota Vikings

In this classic NFC Central match up, the 4-1 Packers take on the 3-2 Vikings. The teams split last year’s meeting, each winning at home. Green bay is “hot” and +3.4 on the Team Strength Oscillator versus -0.85 for the Vikings. A significant advantage to the Packers is seen on the Power Ranking Indicator, +27 to +13. The final piece of information leaning me towards the Packers is they are in the top ten in Team Volatility. As a 3.5 point road favorite, look for the Packers to take down the Vikings and move to 5-1.

San Francisco 49ers versus Washington Redskins

The 49ers come in as perhaps the worst team in the NFL at 0-5. They are a 9.5 point underdog against the 2-2 Washington Redskins. The 49ers won last meeting between the teams in 2014 as home favorite, but this is clearly a different team. They are -4.65 with a “dead” status no the Team Strength Oscillator and 0 on the Power Ranking Indicator. The Redskins aren’t a super powerhouse team, but plenty good enough to defeat the 49ers this week.

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🏈 3-0 again! We are on fire. NFL WEEK 5 picks

Betting on Football
October 7, 2017

Sweep! Another 3-0 ATS in Week 4 which improves our YTD to 10-2. Let’s see if we can keep it going with a few potential plays for Week 5. The main strategy I want to implement is fading the public. Books are always looking to exploit public perception so hopefully we can find a few winners by fading the public in a few heavily public-bet games. Obviously, this is written on Wednesday (10/4) so always keep an eye on the changing lines and percentages.

BUFFALO @ CINCINNATI
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The Bills are coming off an impressive win over Atlanta and the public has taken notice.

This is a potential letdown spot for Buffalo after a big win and now having to travel to Cincinnati. The Bengals quietly got their first win of the season and are in a great spot at home to give a big effort. Let’s take Cincinnati -2.5 (5Dimes)

GREEN BAY @ DALLAS

Dallas laid a huge egg at home last week and the betting public has jumped off the band wagon.

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While Green Bay has looked solid, they have played the Bengals and Bears in back to back weeks so the Cowboys will be a big upgrade in opponents. Dallas, after a bad loss at home, will be hungry for a win and we should see a great effort from them. Let’s take Dallas -1 (5Dimes)

KANSAS CITY @ HOUSTON

The Chiefs are the only undefeated team left in the league and the public is all aboard the KC train.

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Winning on the road is hard in the NFL and, with a short week to prepare, this could be the week Kansas City picks up their first loss. Houston, and Deshaun Watson, had a breakout win last week and will be riding a wave of momentum at home once again. Let’s take Houston +1 (BetOnline)

Like I mentioned, we have a few days until these games take place with lots of wagering in between so keeping an eye on the lines and percentages throughout the week is important. Fading the public is very successful when the public side is 80%+ so keep that in mind as the week progresses and the betting volume grows.

Like all sports investing, this strategy is most effective over the course of an entire season. Use consistent money management and stick to the plan in order to maximize profit. As always, using ZCode’s Line Reversals Tool is a great way to stay on top of all the action.

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🏈 NFL WEEK 4 fade-the-public picks and predictions

Betting on Football
September 30, 2017

Sweep! 3-0 ATS in Week 3 which improves our YTD to 7-2. Let’s see if we can keep it going with a few potential plays for Week 4. The main strategy I want to implement is fading the public. Books are always looking to exploit public perception so hopefully we can find a few winners by fading the public in a few heavily public-bet games. Obviously, this is written on Tuesday (9/26) so always keep an eye on the changing lines and percentages.

JACKSONVILLE @ NEW YORK JETS

While the Jets quietly beat a bad Dolphins team, the public took notice as Jacksonville dominated Baltimore in London.

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It’s always tough to play the next week after being in London and the Jets will be looking to carry the momentum from their first win of the season into this week. Let’s take New York +3.5 (BetOnline)

CAROLINA @ NEW ENGLAND

The Panthers were awful last week against the Saints and the Patriots were able to sneak away with a close win over Houston. As always, New England is a huge public favorite:

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While Carolina has been struggling offensively all season, New England has historically had problems with mobile quarterbacks and this could be the game that Cam Newton breaks out. With such one-sided action we are able to get a solid underdog at a great number. Let’s take Carolina +10 (5Dimes)

TENNESSEE @ HOUSTON

We’re going to take a little different strategy with this game. The Titans are coming off a huge win over Seattle while Houston hung tough but came up short against New England. I think there will be some separation in the percentages but as of now the public is relatively split.

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I think Houston is the sharp side and catching this line early will allow us to get a few points. The Texans return home after a tough loss while the Titans are in a potential letdown spot. Let’s take Houston +2(Bookmaker)

Like I mentioned, we have a few days until these games take place with lots of wagering in between so keeping an eye on the lines and percentages throughout the week is important. Fading the public is very successful when the public side is 80%+ so keep that in mind as the week progresses and the betting volume grows.

Like all sports investing, this strategy is most effective over the course of an entire season. Use consistent money management and stick to the plan in order to maximize profit. As always, using ZCode’s Line Reversals Tool is a great way to stay on top of all the action.

Click Here To Secure Your Completely Automatic Football Betting Picks!
 

Unlock our picks for ALL of the NFL regular season games at http://www.nerdyfootball.com/betting

NFL Football Betting Predictions Week 2

Betting on Football
September 14, 2017

Cleveland Browns versus Baltimore Ravens

The Browns (0-1) head to Baltimore to take on the Ravens (1-0) in this AFC North division match up. The Power Ranking Indicator has the Browns at +31 while the Ravens are at +28 and slightly declining after a recent strong upward surge. The NFL Team Strength Oscillator shows a good indication of the team’s current trend. The Browns are at -21.17 while the Ravens are at +4.88 at rapidly on the ascent. In head to head match ups last season, the Ravens won both meetings as the favorites. A big 7.5 point favorite this week, i pick the Ravens to take down the Browns.

New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints

The New England Patriots are coming off a rare blowout loss, while the Saints fell to the Minnesota Vikings. Both teams are showing slightly downward trends with the Patriots holding the edge. The NFL Team Strength Oscillator shows New England at +3.36, while the Saints are at -5.13. In the Power Ranking Indicator, the Patriots hold a +12 to +8 edge, In head-to-head match ups, the two teams haven’t met since 2013 when the Patriots won as the favorite. Currently a 6.5 point favorite on the road, it’s hard to envision New England to start 0-2. I pick the Patriots to win and cover the spread.

Minnesota Vikings at Pittsburgh Steelers

Both teams were victorious in the first week. The Steelers come in as nearly a touchdown favorite. The teams are remarkably similar in terms of overall strength and trend. According to the NFL Team Strength Oscillator, the Vikings are at +3.21 versus the Steelers +1.87. The Power Ranking Indicator give the Vikings a +10 to +6 edge with both teams on the decline. The teams haven’t met since 2013 when the Vikings won as a home underdog. I pick the Steelers to win at home, but the Vikings to cover the spread.

Detroit Lions at New York Giants

The Lions are clearly a team in better position after week one. They had a convincing win, while the Giants looked terrible in a loss to the Cowboys. The Power Ranking Indicator gives a slight +16 to +14 edge and the NFL Team Strength Oscillator also give an edge of +5.54 to -1.61 to the Lions. The Giants won last season in the head-to-head match up as the home favorite. Although a four point favorite at home this week, the Giants have to play better for me to feel comfortable picking them. Take the Lions to drop the Giants to 0-2 heading into a tough divisional game against the Eagles.

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons

The Packers are coming off a hard fought win against the Seahwaks, while the Falcons were also victorious. This match up against two the of best in the NFC should be a close contest. The Packers come in slight on the rise in the Team Strength Oscillator and hold a +4.34 to +2.15 advantage. The teams are nearly identical in terms of the Power Ranking Indicator at +23 to +25, edge Falcons. Atlanta took both games last season in head-to-head play, including a post season game. A 2.5 point favorite coming in, it’s difficult to pick against the Falcons at home. I take Atlanta by the narrowest of margins.

Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals

Both teams are coming off disappointing opening week losses. The Texas fell to the Jaguars at home, while the Bengals got shutout by the Ravens. Houston holds a decided edge in the Strength Oscillator at +7.04 to -9.73, showing the overall trend between the two teams. The Power Ranking Indicator has the teams nearly even at +15 to +18. The Texans won the head-to-head meeting last year as a home favorite. The Bengals are a tree point favorite, but looked terrible week one. I see an upset in this one, as the Texans will win this to even their record at 1-1.

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Did you follow? Here is the recap for week 1

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