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🏈 Super Bowl Predictions

Betting on Football
January 31, 2018

Philadelphia Eagles versus New England Patriots

In a rematch of Super Bowl XXXIX in which the Patriots defeated the Eagles, 24-21, this is a much more even match than many initially saw it. Both teams finished 13-3. The Patriots scored 458 points and allowed 296, while the Eagles scored 457 and allowed 295. On the oscillators, New England holds a slight +30 to +29 advantage, while the Eagles are +7.78 to +7.11 on the Team Strength Oscillator. Both teams are in the top ten in Team Volatility. The Patriots have an obvious edge at quarterback, although Nick Foles played excellent last week against the Vikings. Once a 7 point line favorite the Patriots, the line is down to 4, as people are starting to realize the Eagles have a solid shot to pull off a win. How can the Eagles win? New England is 20th in the league against the run. The Eagles should be able to move the ball, the key is taking advantage of red zone opportunities. They are near the top at converting in the red zone, while New England’s defense is one of the stingiest in the red zone. Another key will be to put heavy pressure on Tom Brady, which is entirely possible as the Eagles lead the NFL in the number of quarterback pressures. If the Eagles can win the time of possession battle and pressure Brady, they may just win their first Super Bowl. Take the Eagles plus the points. Not confident enough to pick a win outright, but it will not be a surprise if they pull it off.

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🏈 NFL Picks: Week 17

Betting on Football
December 30, 2017

Green Bay Packers versus Detroit Lions

The Packers head into the season finale at 7-8, while the Lions are 8-7. Neither Detroit won the first meeting between the teams this season as a road favorite on November 6. They hold the edge on the Power Ranking Indicator, +19 to +15. They also are “burning hot” on the Team Strength Oscillator versus “average down” for the Packers. Both teams are in the top 10 in Team Volatility, and as a 7.5 point favorite, bodes well for the Lions. The Lions will win the last game of the season to secure a winning record.

Chicago Bears versus Minnesota Vikings

Everything is pointing towards an easy win for the Vikings. They are “burning hot” on the Team Strength Oscillator, while the Bears are -11.8 and “dead”. Minnesota has a huge +30 to +5 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator and won the first game as a road favorite of October 9. A huge 11.5 point favorite, the Vikings will win and likely cover the spread.

Washington Redskins versus New York Giants

At the beginning of the season, many likely saw this game having playoff implications, but both teams just want to finish strong. At 7-8, the Redskins are a 3.5 road favorite and won the last meeting as home favorite on November 25. While neither team is impressive on the oscillators, the Redskins have a +12 to +1 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator. Washington can go to .500 with a win, and likely will take this one as the Giants can’t start the off season soon enough.

Carolina Panthers versus Atlanta Falcons

A game with huge playoff implications, the Falcons need a win the secure the final NFC playoff spot. They are a 3.5 point favorite at home. Carolina holds slight edges in both the Power Ranking Indicator and Team Strength Oscillator and also won the first meeting as a home underdog on November 5. Both teams have something to play for, but Atlanta will be in desperation mode at home and will win in a tight game decided late.

Arizona Cardinals versus Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks need a win and a loss by Atlanta to secure a playoff berth. An 8 point home favorite, Seattle won the first meeting as a road underdog on November 9. Both teams are on a downward trend with the Cardinals at “ice cold down” and Seattle as “average down”. Seattle holds an edge on the Power Ranking Indicator and with the season on the line, will hold off the Cardinals, although might not cover.

Cincinnati Bengals versus Baltimore Ravens

The Bengals enter at 6-9 and try to spoil the playoff hopes of the 9-6 Ravens. Baltimore enters as a 9.5 point favorite and won the first meeting as a road underdog in September. The Ravens are +16 and climbing on the Power Ranking Indicator and “average up” on the Team Strength Oscillator. Cincinnati is “ice cold down” and +6. While the Bengals could maintain enthusiasm throughout if the game is close, they will be ready for the off season should Baltimore pull away. Look for the Ravens to win rather easily, earning their 10th victory.

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🏈 NFL Predictions: Week 14 ready

Betting on Football
December 8, 2017

NFL Predictions: Week 14 ready

Oakland Raiders versus Kansas City Chiefs

In this AFC West battle, both teams come in at 6-6 but heading in opposite directions. The Chiefs are a 4-point favorite despite losing six of their last seven games. The Raiders are “average” on the Team Strength Oscillator, while the Chiefs are “dead”, another indicator of how far they’ve fallen. Oakland is +13 on the Power Ranking Indicator compared to +15 for the Chiefs. The Chiefs have to win eventually and hard to see the Raiders wining both games this season. Just a hunch, but the Chiefs end their skid on Sunday.

Minnesota Vikings versus Carolina Panthers

The Vikings are the hottest team in the league, at 10-2 and are +30 on the Power Ranking Indicator. They enter the game as a 2.5-point road favorite. The Panthers are +26 on the Power Ranking Indicator and both clubs are “burning hot” status on the Team Strength Oscillator. The Vikings won as a road dog last season. In a bit of an upset, I see the Panthers taking advantage of home field and edge the Vikings in a close game decided late.

Tennessee TItans versus Arizona Cardinals

At 8-4, the Titans are in good position for a post season push, while the Cardinals are all but out of it at 5-7. Not a surprise, the Titans hold all the edges on the oscillators, at “burning hot” to “average” on the Team Strength Oscillator and +23 to +17 on the Power Ranking Indicator. Tennessee is tied for 10th in Team Volatility and are a 3-point road favorite. The Titans will improve to 9-4, covering the spread in the process.

Washington Redskins versus Los Angeles Chargers

After a terrible start, the Chargers are in optimal position to win the AFC West. They enter at 6-point favorites against the 5-7 Redskins. Both teams are +12 on the Power Ranking Indicator, but the Chargers on the incline while the Redskins are on a descent. Telling the tale of these two teams is their status on the Team Strength Oscillator, with the Chargers at “burning hot” versus “ice cold down” for Washington. Not much of a contest in this one, the Chargers will win by more than a touchdown.

Seattle Seahawks versus Jacksonville Jaguars

The Seahawks won a big game Sunday against Philadelphia at home to go to 8-4. However, the Jaguars are also 8-4 and are a 3-point home favorite in this one. They hold a minimal +22 to +21 edge in the Power Ranking Indicator and both teams are in the “average” range on the Team Strength Oscillator. The teams have identical records at home and on the road. This game is so evenly matched on paper, it really is a toss-up. Feeding off the home crowd, I see the Jaguars in this one, but I would be cautious playing a bet on this game.

New England Patriots versus Miami Dolphins

At 10-2, the Patriots are in great position to push for top seed in the AFC. They are an 11-point favorite against the 5-7 Dolphins in Miami. New England won the last meeting on November 26. They hold a huge +29 to +8 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator. At “burning hot” versus “dead” on the Team Strength Oscillator and 7th in Team Volatility, New England should have no trouble with the Dolphins. The Patriots will improve to 11-2, with the game being decided by half time.

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Tom Brady vs Carson Wentz? NFL MVP Futures

Betting on Football
November 8, 2017

Carson Wentz has gone from an NFL MVP dark horse at +10,000 during the summer to being second favorite behind Tom Brady. The Philadelphia Eagles quarterback is now listed at +300, while rival Brady is a mere +200 after week 9 of the NFL season.

Carson Wentz for MVP

Wentz has the Eagles off to an 8-1 start; which is the best record in the NFL. Philadelphia has already won more games than it did in 2015 and 2016. Meanwhile, Wentz has already thrown more touchdowns (23) than he did all of last season (16). His 23 touchdowns leads the league. In addition, he has thrown for 2,262 yards (fourth in the NFL) and just five interceptions.

Wentz’s quarterback rating is 104.1, which is slightly lower than Brady’s 106.5. However, it is easy to argue that the Eagles turnaround has a lot to do with Wentz’s improved play. Therefore, the MVP award should be going to Philadelphia, if the Eagles can keep up their great play.

The Road ahead for Carson Wentz

The Eagles only loss came at Arrowhead Stadium against the Kansas City Chiefs. That loss came in week 2. Seven straight wins have followed, but the Eagles now face several tough games ahead. Philadelphia will have a bye this week before taking on Dallas November 20th. It is the first of two games against the Cowboys that Philadelphia must still play.

There is also games against the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams to come. Wentz needs to keep up his solid play and keep the Eagles winning, if he hopes to overtake the man that has been labelled the “greatest quarterback of all-time”.

Many have expected Wentz to fall away after starting so well. Yet, he has continued with one great performance after another. In week 9 against the Broncos, Wentz tossed another four touchdowns in one game. He has now thrown four touchdowns in three games this season.

Top 5 NFL MVP futures bets

  • Tom Brady +200
  • Carson Wentz +300
  • Alex Smith +500
  • Russell Wilson +700
  • Drew Brees +1600

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After such a great start to the NFL season, ZCode System’s Power Rankings have the Eagles as the top team in the league. It is a position the team has been holding on to for a few weeks now. The Eagles are burning hot, and much of that has to do with the out of this world play of Wentz.

Wentz doesn’t have to get the Eagles into the Super Bowl to be crowned MVP. Sure, it could help, but his play during the regular season has completely turned around the franchise. Remember, Philadelphia won just seven games in 2016.

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ZCode System’s Playoff Simulator doesn’t have the Eagles winning the Super Bowl right now. However, it does have Wentz leading the team into the NFC Championship Game. Interestingly, the simulator does have a Super Bowl match up of the Kansas City Chiefs and former cross state rivals the LA Rams.

If the Eagles continue to win, and the way they are playing they should, then there is no reason Wentz shouldn’t be NFL MVP. Which means there is no reason bettors shouldn’t back him to knockoff Brady for the award.

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NFL Predictions: Week 9 ready

Betting on Football
November 1, 2017

Los Angeles Rams versus New York Giants

The Rams enter play with a record of 5-2, while the Giants are coming off a bye week at 1-6. The Giants won the last meeting between the teams last season as a road favorite. This time the Rams are a 3.5 point road favorite and have the advantage in nearly every aspect. They are +1.4 on the Team Strength Oscillator while the Giants are in the negative and “dead” status. Likewise the Rams hold a commanding +28 to +2 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator. There is nothing to make me believe the Giants can stay with the Rams, so I pick the Rams to win and cover the spread.

Kansas City Chiefs versus Dallas Cowboys

Both teams are coming in playing well with the Chiefs at 6-2 and the Cowboys at 4-3. The Chiefs won the last meeting between the teams in 2013 as a home favorite. This time around, the Cowboys are a 2 point home favorite. That will undoubtedly change if Ezekiel Elliott is suspended. Both teams have “average” status on the Team Strength Oscillator, while the Chiefs hold a +23 to +16 edge according to the Power Ranking Indicator. Both teams are in the top ten in Team Volatility. A tough, close call to begin with gets easy with a hunch that Elliott wont play. I go with the Chiefs in a close, tough battle.

Atlanta Falcons versus Carolina Panthers

In a tough NFC South battle, the 4-3 Falcons coming off a bye week take on the 5-3 Panthers. The Falcons took both games between the teams last season as road favorite and home underdog. The Panthers are a 2.5 point favorite, meaning the teams would be dead even on a neutral field. The oscillators show this as an even battle as well. The Falcons are at -1.61 on the Team Strength Oscillator versus -0.71 for the Panthers. Carolina holds a slim +21 to +18 edge on the Power Ranking Indicator. Certainly would not be surprised to see the Falcons win, but I will go with Carolina because of the home field advantage.

Indianapolis Colts versus Houston Texans

Neither teams has found their way so far this season, with the Colts at 2-6 and the Texans at 3-4. Houston won both games between the teams last season, one as home favorite and the other as a road underdog. The Colts are “ice cold down” on the Team Strength Oscillator, while the Texans are “average” at +4.72. The Texans hold a clear +11 to +3 edge on the Power Ranking Indicator. The Colts are tied for first in Team Volatility, meaning they are the most consistent to lose as an underdog and win as a favorite. The Texans are a 10.5 point favorite and I look for an easy win for Houston to improve to 4-4.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers versus New Orleans Saints

In a game with two teams in opposite directions, the 2-5 Buccaneers take on the red hot 5-2 Saints. Both teams won as home favorites last season. The Saints are a touchdown and extra point favorite and are tied for first in Team Volatility. With a “burning hot” status on the Team Strength Oscillator compare to “ice cold down” for Tampa Bay, there is little showing me the Buccaneers can stay in this game. Furthermore, the Saints have a commanding +27 to +4 edge in the Power Ranking Indicator. The Saints will win, and rather easily.

Arizona Cardinals versus San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers come in as the worst team in the NFL at 0-8, while the Cardinals are also struggling at 2-5. The Cardinals edged the 49ers in the first meeting this season on October 1. Only a 2.5 point favorite on the road, the Cardinals are +16 on the Power Ranking Indicator to 0 for the 49ers. Looking for a reason to believe San Francisco can win their first of the season, I can’t find one. The 49ers have a “dead” status on the Team Strength Oscillator for a reason and will be 0-9 after this game.

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