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Willie Snead gets 3-game suspension

Fantasy Football, NFL News
September 1, 2017

Violating NFL policy on substances of abuse

#Saints WR Willie Snead is suspended 3 games for violating NFL policy on substances of abuse, per @NFL. It was reduced from 4 (Ian Rapoport on Twitter)

Nerdy Football Analysis: This would explain why Ted Ginn Jr. has been running and operating as the No.2 wide receiver during portions of the pre-season. Snead’s fantasy value takes a hit, but he will likely come at a bargain in drafts moving forward. Ginn and Coby Fleener get slight bumps.

Fantasy Football 2017: Mock Draft Analysis and Selection Strategy

Fantasy Football
August 30, 2017

A mock draft in the fantasy football realm is going to look quite a bit different from one in the lead up to the NFL draft.  

GMs in the NFL typically prioritize quarterbacks and the occasional generational edge-rusher, or at least a guy who boasts the upside of one. Fantasy football drafts lean on production and usage, but not at quarterback. 

Like the NFL is a long way removed from taking running backs first overall, fantasy drafts have changed in dramatic fashion to coincide with the on-field evolution of the game. 

After a summer away, it is understandable if fantasy owners need to shake off the rust before heading into drafts. Below is a look at a sample mock for reference before diving into some strategy review, all based on Yahoo 12-team standard leagues. 

           

Mock Draft

 

The disparity between the way the NFL and fantasy football values quarterbacks is as wide as the Grand Canyon.  

Everything centers on the quarterback, arguably the most important position in sports—except in fantasy football. Having the peace of mind that Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady will perform well regardless of options around them is nice, but bulking up other positions means less reliance on the position each week.

Quarterback isn’t just the easiest position to predict on a weekly basis. There are a mass of reliable producers each year, significant injuries are mostly a rarity and waiting until the eighth or ninth round, though extreme, can still produce a Cam Newton or Andrew Luck, who have average draft positions of 8.06 and 8.09 at Fantasy Football Calculator, respectively. 

It’s easy to keep going with values: Dak Prescott (10.04), Matthew Stafford (10.08) and Carson Palmer (12.09) are all notables. Again, nothing completely wrong with getting a Rodgers early and coasting, but when 13 signal-callers flew past the 4,000-yard mark for passing a year ago, it is worth wondering if an early investment on the position in a 12-team league is worth it. 

After all, running back scarcity is a major problem in any league. The league itself isn’t drafting the position at No. 1 anymore, but fantasy owners sure are with 300-touch hogs like Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson. The conundrum facing owners is obvious—more and more NFL teams are divvying up touches to backfield committees, something owners can’t do. Meaning, the rare guys who hog all the touches have more value than anyone else. 

Bell and Johnson are always going to be a better option than say, Jay Ajayi, who carried the ball 260 times last year but only caught 27 passes. 

If quantity is the defining trait there, it also defines running back as a whole compared to wideout. Johnson and Bell don’t have equals in that top positional tier, whereas the top tier of wideouts features Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr., Mike Evans and A.J. Green

Speaking of wideouts, the sheer quantity between the number an owner needs to start and how many see healthy usage these days almost makes it feel like throwing darts at a board blindfolded. After that top tier, it seems like anything can happen, so the best thing owners can do is look at target numbers and outline a range of results. 

Take a guy like Alshon Jeffery. While it’s exciting he escaped the wideout purgatory known as Chicago, what are the chances he does any better on a new team with sophomore Carson Wentz under center? He’s sitting on an ADP of 4.04, tied with Tyreek Hill of the Kansas City Chiefs, who last year scored six times as a receiver, three times as a rusher and three times as a returner. 

What seems more likely and the safer pick? The guy on a new team for the first time in his career, or the guy contributing in three different ways? 

Tight end isn’t nearly as difficult to figure out. The obvious names like Rob Gronkowski will produce if healthy, though names shouldn’t mean as much as they do elsewhere. 

Look at a small, but telling note about pairing tight ends with their real-life quarterbacks from ESPN.com’s Matthew Berry: “In his first season with Sam Bradford, Kyle Rudolph caught 14 passes in the red zone. In the past five seasons, the only TEs with more such catches in a single season are Jimmy Graham, Jordan Reed and Tony Gonzalez.”

As seasoned owners can attest, any strategy works. And there are a ton of them, ranging from zero-running back to late-round quarterback to early quarterback and beyond. Most data suggests any approach will give an owner a shot at the playoffs, provided the picks pan out and owners do well on the waiver wire and via trades. 

Above all else, luck comes into play. Early-round runners won’t usually disappoint outside of injury. The reliable quarterbacks are the same way. Wideouts with a safe range of results don’t suddenly get demoted. 

Still, knowing these range of strategies and being able to adapt on the fly is a big part of success in a fantasy draft. A league championship isn’t necessarily won during the draft, but it can certainly be lost. 

           

All scoring info, points-against info and ownership stats courtesy of Yahoo standard leagues. 

Read more Fantasy Football news on NerdyFootball.com

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Fantasy Football

Fantasy

Alshon Jeffery

Le’Veon Bell

David Johnson RB

Boldin has change of heart, retires from NFL

Fantasy Football, NFL News
August 20, 2017

Veteran WR calls is quits

Football has always been a priority for Anquan Boldin. But after 14 seasons, more than 200 games and nearly 14,000 yards receiving, the veteran wide receiver now feels a higher calling, which is why he left the Buffalo Bills on Sunday after only two weeks with the team and plans to retire. (ESPN)

Nerdy Football Analysis: Boldin signed with the Bills two weeks ago but after a couple key trades that included Sammy Watkins and DB Ronald Darby, the veteran receiver had a change of heart. He reportedly wants to focus on humanitarian and human rights work. His departure leaves the Bills with Jordan Matthews (chest), Zay Jones and Andre Holmes atop the wide receiver depth chart.

Fantasy Football 2017: 2-Round Mock Draft, Top Team Names and League Names

Fantasy Football
August 12, 2017

Although the NFL preseason hardly matters, its commencing serves as a wake-up call for fantasy football players to begin draft preparation.

The New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs kick off the 2017 campaign on Sept. 7. Until then, fantasy contestants must keep track of all league happenings and practice with mock drafts.

Some major news unfolded on Friday, when the NFL officially suspended Ezekiel Elliott for six games after concluding its domestic violence investigation. The fantasy fallout is hardly the important element of this story, but it will alter the first round.

He consequently dropped to No. 17 in Yahoo Sports’ rankings, so let’s use that as a baseline for this two-round mock draft, simulated for a 12-team league with standard scoring. Then let’s examine the updated early strategy for someone drawing the No. 3 selection.

         

 

 

 

 

Mock Draft

1.1: David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals

1.2: Le’Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

1.3: Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

1.4: Odell Beckham Jr., WR, New York Giants

1.5: Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons

1.6: LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills

1.7: Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1.8: Melvin Gordon, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

1.9: Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons

1.10: A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

1.11: Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers

1.12: Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints

 

2.1: Jordan Howard, RB, Chicago Bears

2.2: Jay Ajayi, RB, Miami Dolphins

2.3: DeMarco Murray, RB, Tennessee Titans

2.4: Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

2.5: Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys

2.6: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys

2.7: T.Y Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts

2.8: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

2.9: Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots

2.10: Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams

2.11: Marshawn Lynch, RB, Oakland Raiders

2.12: Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle Seahawks

         

 

 

 

 

Round 1 Pick: Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Antonio Brown joins David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell as an easy top-three choice in all formats.

There’s no safer wide receiver on the board than the Pittsburgh Steelers star, who has caught a combined 481 receptions over the past four seasons. Having notched double-digit touchdowns three years in a row, he doesn’t depend on point-per-reception scoring. Yet the stipulation gives him a Secretariat-sized lead over all other wideouts.

Investors should not fret Martavis Bryant’s return. When they shared the field for 11 games in 2015, Brown tallied 99 receptions, 1,311 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. Playing alongside a deep threat opens up the field for Brown, who had 22 catches of 20 or more yards last season.

His target share dropped all the way to 26 percent in 2016, but the 29-year-old would have led or tied the NFL in receptions for the third straight year if not for sitting out Week 17 with playoff seeding solidified. 

Business is still booming for Brown, so don’t pass up a sure thing with pick No. 3.

        

 

 

 

 

Round 2 Pick: Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams

Todd Gurley possesses a far lighter track record. Taken as an early first-round pick in 2015, the running back averaged a bleak 3.2 yards per carry and scored just six touchdowns last year. Don’t expect to buy a bounce-back campaign at a discount. 

On individual talent, the 23-year-old remains a premier rusher. The Los Angeles Rams’ NFL-worst offense dragged him down last season, but a horrible unit couldn’t prevent him from averaging 99.5 yards per game.

With the Jeff Fisher era finally over, perhaps the Rams will resemble a 21st century offense. New head coach Sean McVay oversaw Washington’s No. 3-ranked unit as the offensive coordinator last year. Filling that role for the Rams is Matt LaFleur, who helped turn the Atlanta Falcons offense into a juggernaut.

Only four backs received more handoffs than Gurley’s 278. While he will stay a focal point of the offense, McVay expressed the importance of establishing a better balance to ESPN.com’s Alden Gonzalez.

“When you have a special player like Todd, you want to continue to find ways to get him involved but also be mindful of, ‘What is that fine balance between him being at his best and not wearing him out?'” McVay said. “That is something that we’re continuing to find out.”

Per the Ventura County Star‘s Joe Curley, McVay spoke fondly his young star’s offseason progress:

The Rams found some much-needed help. On Friday, as confirmed via Twitter, they enhanced their passing game by acquiring Sammy Watkins from the Buffalo Bills:

Drafters should gladly exchange some touches for fewer stuffed boxes and more red-zone visits. Beside, there’s no threat of Gurley splitting carries, and his overall volume won’t suffer too much if the Rams stay on the field longer.

Marshawn Lynch plays for a far superior Oakland Raiders offensive line, but he’s eight years older and slated for a smaller workload. He also averaged 3.8 yards per rush when last seen, in 2015, so a second-round investment is too steep a gamble.

Rather than hoping the 2014 version of Beast Mode returns, let’s see whether the 2015 Gurley resurfaces. Although he comes with more risk (and reward) than the typical Round 2 selection, the high volume raises his floor enough to warrant the wager.

         

 

 

 

 

Team Names

  • Pickle Fitzpatrick
  • Les Kirk Cousins Dangereux
  • Any Pun on Dak Prescott (“Dak To the Future”) or Adam Thielen (“Hooked on a Thielen”)
  • King of Jaelen Strong Style
  • Jeremy Maclin, FBI
  • Doyle Rules
  • The Be Tajae Sharpes
  • The Gurley Show with Lacy and Jordan
  • Ajayi Another Day

Anyone searching online for a clever team name is missing the point. Where’s the fun in lifting someone else’s idea?

Picking “Gronky Kong” or “Demaryius Targaryen” is the equivalent to naming a child “John.” That’s fine, but don’t be surprised when other classmates have the same name. 

Puns on player names are often fun but not always necessary. Choosing one from a random internet list is like a getting a butterfly tattoo. Find something that’s meaningful to you, but don’t force it. 

Also on the avoid list: middle-school jokes and an actual NFL team name. At least make an effort.

        

 

 

 

 

League Names

  • The Goulden Company (only works for this author and fellow Goulds)
  • The Jeff Fisher League of Mediocrity
  • 12 Angry Men (try deeper leagues with diversity)
  • Dirty Dozen (shower on Sunday morning?)
  • A League of Their Own
  • A League Has No Name
  • A Song of Matty Ice and Fire (are the Game of Thrones references getting old yet?)
  • The Bullock Club

League names, meanwhile, are best reserved for inside jokes or generic group descriptions. Honestly, who even pays attention to the league’s title? This writer can’t recall the name of the intact league he joined back when Maurice Jones-Drew and Andre Johnson were first-round talents.

A league by any other name will still stink unless it consists of active and informed participants who understand that fantasy football is a fun diversion. Spend more energy on winning the league than naming it.

       

Note: All statistics obtained and calculated using data from Pro Football Reference.

Read more Fantasy Football news on NerdyFootball.com

NFL

Fantasy Football

Fantasy

Ghost Points in GPPs

Fantasy Football
May 19, 2017

As a quick aside to all readers, this will likely be my 2nd to last article until NFL starts, so I am going to try to include content that can help you improve your lineup making process, rather than try to recommend any specific picks on today’s slate. In my experience it is far better to master the game you are playing rather than try to emulate someone else’s approach anyway. Also, my older articles are archived in the Strategy section of the site for anyone who wants to review. Without further adieu, one of my last pieces to advice which I want to ram into your skull is this: Roster Hitters on “Bad” Teams The first major concept that seems to throw players off in GPPs is the concept of the run line. We all know that a team lined at 5 runs is much more enticing than one lined at 3.5, but what does any of this really mean in practice? First off, we do not get paid prizes based on expected outcomes, we have to get extremely lucky and put up actual giant scores to win. If you’re the type of player who likes to stack, it’s likely