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Tom Brady vs Carson Wentz? NFL MVP Futures

Betting on Football
November 8, 2017

Carson Wentz has gone from an NFL MVP dark horse at +10,000 during the summer to being second favorite behind Tom Brady. The Philadelphia Eagles quarterback is now listed at +300, while rival Brady is a mere +200 after week 9 of the NFL season.

Carson Wentz for MVP

Wentz has the Eagles off to an 8-1 start; which is the best record in the NFL. Philadelphia has already won more games than it did in 2015 and 2016. Meanwhile, Wentz has already thrown more touchdowns (23) than he did all of last season (16). His 23 touchdowns leads the league. In addition, he has thrown for 2,262 yards (fourth in the NFL) and just five interceptions.

Wentz’s quarterback rating is 104.1, which is slightly lower than Brady’s 106.5. However, it is easy to argue that the Eagles turnaround has a lot to do with Wentz’s improved play. Therefore, the MVP award should be going to Philadelphia, if the Eagles can keep up their great play.

The Road ahead for Carson Wentz

The Eagles only loss came at Arrowhead Stadium against the Kansas City Chiefs. That loss came in week 2. Seven straight wins have followed, but the Eagles now face several tough games ahead. Philadelphia will have a bye this week before taking on Dallas November 20th. It is the first of two games against the Cowboys that Philadelphia must still play.

There is also games against the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams to come. Wentz needs to keep up his solid play and keep the Eagles winning, if he hopes to overtake the man that has been labelled the “greatest quarterback of all-time”.

Many have expected Wentz to fall away after starting so well. Yet, he has continued with one great performance after another. In week 9 against the Broncos, Wentz tossed another four touchdowns in one game. He has now thrown four touchdowns in three games this season.

Top 5 NFL MVP futures bets

  • Tom Brady +200
  • Carson Wentz +300
  • Alex Smith +500
  • Russell Wilson +700
  • Drew Brees +1600

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After such a great start to the NFL season, ZCode System’s Power Rankings have the Eagles as the top team in the league. It is a position the team has been holding on to for a few weeks now. The Eagles are burning hot, and much of that has to do with the out of this world play of Wentz.

Wentz doesn’t have to get the Eagles into the Super Bowl to be crowned MVP. Sure, it could help, but his play during the regular season has completely turned around the franchise. Remember, Philadelphia won just seven games in 2016.

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ZCode System’s Playoff Simulator doesn’t have the Eagles winning the Super Bowl right now. However, it does have Wentz leading the team into the NFC Championship Game. Interestingly, the simulator does have a Super Bowl match up of the Kansas City Chiefs and former cross state rivals the LA Rams.

If the Eagles continue to win, and the way they are playing they should, then there is no reason Wentz shouldn’t be NFL MVP. Which means there is no reason bettors shouldn’t back him to knockoff Brady for the award.

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NFL Football Betting Predictions Week 2

Betting on Football
September 14, 2017

Cleveland Browns versus Baltimore Ravens

The Browns (0-1) head to Baltimore to take on the Ravens (1-0) in this AFC North division match up. The Power Ranking Indicator has the Browns at +31 while the Ravens are at +28 and slightly declining after a recent strong upward surge. The NFL Team Strength Oscillator shows a good indication of the team’s current trend. The Browns are at -21.17 while the Ravens are at +4.88 at rapidly on the ascent. In head to head match ups last season, the Ravens won both meetings as the favorites. A big 7.5 point favorite this week, i pick the Ravens to take down the Browns.

New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints

The New England Patriots are coming off a rare blowout loss, while the Saints fell to the Minnesota Vikings. Both teams are showing slightly downward trends with the Patriots holding the edge. The NFL Team Strength Oscillator shows New England at +3.36, while the Saints are at -5.13. In the Power Ranking Indicator, the Patriots hold a +12 to +8 edge, In head-to-head match ups, the two teams haven’t met since 2013 when the Patriots won as the favorite. Currently a 6.5 point favorite on the road, it’s hard to envision New England to start 0-2. I pick the Patriots to win and cover the spread.

Minnesota Vikings at Pittsburgh Steelers

Both teams were victorious in the first week. The Steelers come in as nearly a touchdown favorite. The teams are remarkably similar in terms of overall strength and trend. According to the NFL Team Strength Oscillator, the Vikings are at +3.21 versus the Steelers +1.87. The Power Ranking Indicator give the Vikings a +10 to +6 edge with both teams on the decline. The teams haven’t met since 2013 when the Vikings won as a home underdog. I pick the Steelers to win at home, but the Vikings to cover the spread.

Detroit Lions at New York Giants

The Lions are clearly a team in better position after week one. They had a convincing win, while the Giants looked terrible in a loss to the Cowboys. The Power Ranking Indicator gives a slight +16 to +14 edge and the NFL Team Strength Oscillator also give an edge of +5.54 to -1.61 to the Lions. The Giants won last season in the head-to-head match up as the home favorite. Although a four point favorite at home this week, the Giants have to play better for me to feel comfortable picking them. Take the Lions to drop the Giants to 0-2 heading into a tough divisional game against the Eagles.

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons

The Packers are coming off a hard fought win against the Seahwaks, while the Falcons were also victorious. This match up against two the of best in the NFC should be a close contest. The Packers come in slight on the rise in the Team Strength Oscillator and hold a +4.34 to +2.15 advantage. The teams are nearly identical in terms of the Power Ranking Indicator at +23 to +25, edge Falcons. Atlanta took both games last season in head-to-head play, including a post season game. A 2.5 point favorite coming in, it’s difficult to pick against the Falcons at home. I take Atlanta by the narrowest of margins.

Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals

Both teams are coming off disappointing opening week losses. The Texas fell to the Jaguars at home, while the Bengals got shutout by the Ravens. Houston holds a decided edge in the Strength Oscillator at +7.04 to -9.73, showing the overall trend between the two teams. The Power Ranking Indicator has the teams nearly even at +15 to +18. The Texans won the head-to-head meeting last year as a home favorite. The Bengals are a tree point favorite, but looked terrible week one. I see an upset in this one, as the Texans will win this to even their record at 1-1.

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Did you follow? Here is the recap for week 1

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NFL Week 1 Picks and Predictions $$$

Betting on Football
September 6, 2017

The first week of the NFL season is always the most difficult to predict, as little is seen of starting teams during the preseason. There are methods to use, however, including point spreads, overall team trends, head-to-head match up, previous season’s performance and so on. Utilizing the Power Ranking Indicator, Team Strength Oscillator, Head-to-Head records from last season, among others, here is my breakdown for six games this week.

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

Jacksonville finished 3-13 last season, while Houston finished on top of the division at 9-7. The Texans come in as a 5.5 point favorite and won both meetings between the teams last season. Houston holds the advantage in terms of Power Ranking Indicator at +19 and climbing to +10. Similarly there is a wide margin in terms of NFL Team Strength Oscillator with this Texas at +8.44 compared to the Jaguars at a woeful -16.28. Everything in the tools points towards a decisive victory for the Texans in this one.

Philadelphia Eagles versus Washington Redskins

In a battle in what is likely to be a tight NFC East, the Eagles come in as a slim one point favorite. Interestingly enough, the Redskins took both meetings last season, as a favorite at home and as the underdog in Philadelphia. The Power Ranking Indicator gives a wide advantage to the Eagles at +25 and rapidly rising, while the Redskins are at +4. This is likely because the Eagles have added weapons in the off season and the high expectations of quarterback Carson Wentz. The NFL Team Strength Oscillator shows the Redskins with a slight overall advantage at +4.82 to +1.09. Currently the Eagles appear to be the stronger team, however, and I see the Eagles edging the Redskins by at most a field goal.

Indianapolis Colts versus Los Angeles Rams

The Colts were 8-8 last season, while the Rams were a dismal 4-12. The two teams haven’t met since preseason in 2015, so head-to-head results don’t come into play. Interestingly the Rams are a 3.5 point favorite and hold a slim +16 to +15 advantage in the Power Ranking Indicator. Looking more closely, though, the Rams are on the decline in that Indicator, while the Colts are rapidly rising. The trend continues with the NFL Team Strength Oscillator with the Colts holding a +4.22 to -4.37 advantage with the gap increasing. Even without quarterback Andrew Luck, take the Colts in this one, despite the underdog status.

Seattle Seahawks versus Green Bay Packers

This is one of the best match ups of the week with the Packers coming in as 3.5 point home favorites. Last season, the Packers won as a home underdog and the teams finished with nearly identical records, at 10-5-1 for the Seahawks and 10-6 for the Packers. Seattle holds a slight edge in the Team Strength Oscillator, but a most decided edge of +28 to +22 in the Power Ranking Indicator. What makes this a tough pick is the Seahawks were a mediocre 3-4-1 on the road, while the Packers were 6-2 at home. It’s difficult to pick against Aaron Rodgers at home, so I hesitantly pick the Packers to open up at 1-0.

New Orleans Saints versus Minnesota Vikings

The last meeting between these two teams was September 2014 where the Saints won as the favorite. However, this plays little in determining the pick between two teams that were nearly even in win-loss record last season. The Vikings hold the clear advantage in both the Power Ranking Indicator (+20 to +2) and Team Strength Oscillator (+3.98 to -5.13). They are also 3.5 point favorites at home. While tempted to pick Drew Brees and the Saints, all signs point towards the Vikings in the opening.

Los Angeles Chargers versus Denver Broncos

The Chargers finished 5-11 last season compared to 9-7 for the Broncos, however the teams finished 1-1 head-to-head. Denver won as the favorite and the Chargers won at home at the underdog. The Chargers are at +23 according to the Power Ranking Indicator, which is strong for a team that finished last a season ago. However, the Broncos are quite stronger at +31 and also hold a nearly 27 point advantage and increasing according to the Team Strength Oscillator. It would be a great story for the Chargers to win their first regular season game as the Los Angeles Chargers, but that’s unlikely. I pick the Broncos by a wide margin in this one.

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Bucs-Dolphins rescheduled for Week 11

Fantasy Football, NFL News
September 6, 2017

Both teams share a bye Week 11

The NFL officially postponed the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Miami Dolphins tilt until Week 11.

With Hurricane Irma gaining steam as it moves toward South Florida, the league announced the matchup will be moved from Sunday to Sunday, Nov. 19. Both the Bucs and Dolphins had a bye in Week 11.

The news means that Miami and Tampa will play 16 straight games to close out the season. (NFL.com)

Nerdy Football Analysis: Mother nature wins again. Moving the game to Pittsburgh or Philadelphia was discussed but in the end, fantasy owners of Jay Cutler, Jay Ajayi, Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, etc need to find other options.

Fantasy Football 2017: 5-Round Standard League Mock Draft, Potential Team Names

Fantasy Football
September 2, 2017

With Week 1 of the 2017 NFL season quickly approaching, it is prime time for fantasy football drafts ahead of Thursday night’s season opener.

There has been a great deal of turnover in fantasy circles in recent weeks due to surprising personnel moves and significant injuries, and they figure to have a major impact on the way drafts play out now that the picture is clearer for all 32 NFL teams.

As you prepare for your draft, here is a five-round mock for 10-team, standard leagues, along with analysis for each round and a look at some potential team names to consider.

      

Round 1

1. Team 1: David Johnson, RB, ARI

2. Team 2: Le’Veon Bell, RB, PIT

3. Team 3: Antonio Brown, WR, PIT

4. Team 4: Julio Jones, WR, ATL

5. Team 5: Odell Beckham Jr., WR, NYG

6. Team 6: LeSean McCoy, RB, BUF

7. Team 7: Mike Evans, WR, TB

8. Team 8: Devonta Freeman, RB, ATL

9. Team 9: A.J. Green, WR, CIN

10. Team 10: Melvin Gordon, RB, LAC

        

Round 1 Analysis

Perhaps the biggest no-brainer in any fantasy football draft this year is to take Arizona Cardinals running back David Johnson No. 1 overall. It was once a competition with Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell and Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott, but Johnson is now the clear choice.

Bell could get off to a slow start this season after sitting out all of training camp and the preseason, while Elliott is suspended for the Cowboys’ first six games.

Outside of Johnson and Bell, there is a trio of top-flight wide receivers, although there are some questions surrounding New York Giants wideout Odell Beckham Jr.’s Week 1 availability due to an ankle injury suffered during the preseason.

Buffalo Bills running back LeSean McCoy is the clear third choice among players at his position, but with the Bills trading No. 1 wide receiver Sammy Watkins to the Los Angeles Rams, McCoy is a somewhat under-the-radar option to be fantasy MVP this season and turn in No. 1 overall production provided he stays healthy.

        

Round 2

11. Team 10: Jordy Nelson, WR, GB

12. Team 9: Jay Ajayi, RB, MIA

13. Team 8: Michael Thomas, WR, NO

14. Team 7: Jordan Howard, RB, CHI

15. Team 6: DeMarco Murray, RB, TEN

16. Team 5: Brandin Cooks, WR, NE

17. Team 4: Todd Gurley, RB, LAR

18. Team 3: Leonard Fournette, RB, JAC

19. Team 2: T.Y. Hilton, WR, IND

20. Team 1: Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA

       

Round 2 Analysis

There is plenty of high upside available in the second round, but the bulk of the players coming off the board have some question marks as well.

New England Patriots wide receiver Brandin Cooks could conceivably be in for a massive season with Julian Edelman out for the year, but Tom Brady loves to spread the ball around, which could limit his ceiling in comparison to what he did with the New Orleans Saints.

Rams running back Todd Gurley went from being dominant as a rookie to inefficient as a second-year player. Deciding which version he is closer to is a guessing game of sorts, but with a new coaching staff in place and some weapons in the passing game that can stretch the field, there should be better running lanes for the Georgia product in 2017.

Although rookies are always a risky proposition, Jacksonville Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette is worth a look in the second round. Jacksonville undoubtedly intends to use him regularly after selecting him with the No. 4 overall pick in the 2017 NFL draft, and since quarterback Blake Bortles is a turnover machine, keeping the ball on the ground is Jacksonville’s best chance of success.

           

Round 3

21. Team 1: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, DAL

22. Team 2: Kareem Hunt, RB, KC

23. Team 3: Dez Bryant, WR, DAL

24. Team 4: Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE

25. Team 5: Marshawn Lynch, RB, OAK

26. Team 6: Amari Cooper, WR, OAK

27. Team 7: Keenan Allen, WR, LAC

28. Team 8: Christian McCaffrey, RB, CAR

29. Team 9: Lamar Miller, RB, HOU

30. Team 10: Isaiah Crowell, RB, CLE

           

Round 3 Analysis

The third round starts with a bit of an eyebrow-raiser in the form of Elliott. Although he is slated to miss six games, Elliott is a top-three fantasy player when on the field, and that still makes him worth a premium pick. If Team 1 nabs Darren McFadden later in the draft, then it will have the benefit of Dallas’ dominant running game for the entire season.

It has long been assumed that Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey is the No. 2 rookie back behind Fournette in fantasy terms, and while McCaffrey does get taken at No. 28, he has arguably been supplanted by Kansas City Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt.

The rookie third-round pick out of Toledo is KC’s unquestioned top back with Spencer Ware out for the season, and since the Chiefs run a fairly conservative offense, he is in line to get a ton of touches both as a runner and in the passing game.

Also in the third round, Team 3 cracked the seal on the tight end position with Rob Gronkowski. While staying healthy has been a major issue for Gronk in recent years, he is a game-changer when he plays and should benefit from the absence of Edelman in the form of more targets.

         

Round 4

31. Team 10: Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB

32. Team 9: Terrelle Pryor Sr., WR, WAS

33. Team 8: Alshon Jeffery, WR, PHI

34. Team 7: Ty Montgomery, RB, GB

35. Team 6: Demaryius Thomas, WR, DEN

36. Team 5: Tom Brady, QB, NE

37. Team 4: Dalvin Cook, RB, MIN

38. Team 3: Carlos Hyde, RB, SF

39. Team 2: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, HOU

40. Team 1: Golden Tate, WR, DET

       

Round 4 Analysis

Teams wisely held off on quarterbacks in the first three rounds due to the impressive depth at the position, but the elite options come off the board in Round 4 in the form of Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady.

It is essentially a coin flip when deciding which signal-caller will be better from a fantasy perspective in 2017, but these choices came down to fits. Rodgers made sense for Team 10 in order to form a combo with Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jordy Nelson, while Brady joins Team 5 to unite with his Patriots teammate in Cooks.

A few high-ceiling running backs also came off the board, including the Packers’ Ty Montgomery. The converted receiver is still learning the nuances of the running back position, but he has absolutely no competition for touches in Green Bay’s backfield, and he stands to potentially be one of the top backs in the NFL in terms of catching the football.

Minnesota Vikings rookie Dalvin Cook was also selected. Although the team signed veteran Latavius Murray, and he could potentially steal a lot of short-yardage work, Cook is the far more dynamic player, and that should allow him to put a stranglehold on the starting job as the season progresses.

      

Round 5

41. Team 1: Jordan Reed, TE, WAS

42. Team 2: Michael Crabtree, WR, OAK

43. Team 3: Travis Kelce, TE, KC

44. Team 4: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARI

45. Team 5: Bilal Powell, RB, NYJ

46. Team 6: Greg Olsen, TE, CAR

47. Team 7: Danny Woodhead, RB, BAL

48. Team 8: Drew Brees, QB, NO

49. Team 9: Joe Mixon, RB, CIN

50. Team 10: Kelvin Benjamin, WR, CAR

        

Round 5 Analysis

A run on tight ends is the name of the game in the fifth and final round of the mock draft, with three of them coming off the board in the first six picks.

Outside of the first four tight ends, the position is a crap shoot as far as fantasy is concerned, which is why it’s a good idea to wait on taking one unless you land a top-flight option. Jordan Reed, Travis Kelce and Greg Olsen all reside in the tier below Gronk, and getting one of them will create a slight advantage over those who are forced to play the guessing game of selecting a mid-tier tight end.

Yet another rookie running back is the most intriguing pick of the round, with Joe Mixon of the Cincinnati Bengals coming off the board at No. 49. Although his off-field issues are well-documented, Mixon is an incredible talent who arguably has a better overall skill set than any other rookie back.

The biggest issue for Mixon is the fact Cincinnati has a crowded backfield that also includes Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard. Although Hill is likely to vulture some touchdowns and frustrate Mixon‘s fantasy owners, Mixon should get enough work between the 20s to warrant RB2 status or flex consideration most weeks.

        

Potential Team Names

Keenan & Bell (For Kenan & Kel fans who also happen to own Keenan Allen and Le’Veon Bell)

Super Coopers (For fans of Super Troopers and Amari Cooper alike)

McCoy Meets World (Boy Meets World combines with LeSean McCoy)

Zay Darnold (Perfect for teams who have Zay Jones and are also tanking for the first pick in a dynasty league)

Jack Doyle Rules (Billy Madison fans know what I’m talking about)

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