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New England Patriots

🏈 Super Bowl Predictions

Betting on Football
January 31, 2018

Philadelphia Eagles versus New England Patriots

In a rematch of Super Bowl XXXIX in which the Patriots defeated the Eagles, 24-21, this is a much more even match than many initially saw it. Both teams finished 13-3. The Patriots scored 458 points and allowed 296, while the Eagles scored 457 and allowed 295. On the oscillators, New England holds a slight +30 to +29 advantage, while the Eagles are +7.78 to +7.11 on the Team Strength Oscillator. Both teams are in the top ten in Team Volatility. The Patriots have an obvious edge at quarterback, although Nick Foles played excellent last week against the Vikings. Once a 7 point line favorite the Patriots, the line is down to 4, as people are starting to realize the Eagles have a solid shot to pull off a win. How can the Eagles win? New England is 20th in the league against the run. The Eagles should be able to move the ball, the key is taking advantage of red zone opportunities. They are near the top at converting in the red zone, while New England’s defense is one of the stingiest in the red zone. Another key will be to put heavy pressure on Tom Brady, which is entirely possible as the Eagles lead the NFL in the number of quarterback pressures. If the Eagles can win the time of possession battle and pressure Brady, they may just win their first Super Bowl. Take the Eagles plus the points. Not confident enough to pick a win outright, but it will not be a surprise if they pull it off.

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NFL Football Betting Predictions Week 2

Betting on Football
September 14, 2017

Cleveland Browns versus Baltimore Ravens

The Browns (0-1) head to Baltimore to take on the Ravens (1-0) in this AFC North division match up. The Power Ranking Indicator has the Browns at +31 while the Ravens are at +28 and slightly declining after a recent strong upward surge. The NFL Team Strength Oscillator shows a good indication of the team’s current trend. The Browns are at -21.17 while the Ravens are at +4.88 at rapidly on the ascent. In head to head match ups last season, the Ravens won both meetings as the favorites. A big 7.5 point favorite this week, i pick the Ravens to take down the Browns.

New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints

The New England Patriots are coming off a rare blowout loss, while the Saints fell to the Minnesota Vikings. Both teams are showing slightly downward trends with the Patriots holding the edge. The NFL Team Strength Oscillator shows New England at +3.36, while the Saints are at -5.13. In the Power Ranking Indicator, the Patriots hold a +12 to +8 edge, In head-to-head match ups, the two teams haven’t met since 2013 when the Patriots won as the favorite. Currently a 6.5 point favorite on the road, it’s hard to envision New England to start 0-2. I pick the Patriots to win and cover the spread.

Minnesota Vikings at Pittsburgh Steelers

Both teams were victorious in the first week. The Steelers come in as nearly a touchdown favorite. The teams are remarkably similar in terms of overall strength and trend. According to the NFL Team Strength Oscillator, the Vikings are at +3.21 versus the Steelers +1.87. The Power Ranking Indicator give the Vikings a +10 to +6 edge with both teams on the decline. The teams haven’t met since 2013 when the Vikings won as a home underdog. I pick the Steelers to win at home, but the Vikings to cover the spread.

Detroit Lions at New York Giants

The Lions are clearly a team in better position after week one. They had a convincing win, while the Giants looked terrible in a loss to the Cowboys. The Power Ranking Indicator gives a slight +16 to +14 edge and the NFL Team Strength Oscillator also give an edge of +5.54 to -1.61 to the Lions. The Giants won last season in the head-to-head match up as the home favorite. Although a four point favorite at home this week, the Giants have to play better for me to feel comfortable picking them. Take the Lions to drop the Giants to 0-2 heading into a tough divisional game against the Eagles.

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons

The Packers are coming off a hard fought win against the Seahwaks, while the Falcons were also victorious. This match up against two the of best in the NFC should be a close contest. The Packers come in slight on the rise in the Team Strength Oscillator and hold a +4.34 to +2.15 advantage. The teams are nearly identical in terms of the Power Ranking Indicator at +23 to +25, edge Falcons. Atlanta took both games last season in head-to-head play, including a post season game. A 2.5 point favorite coming in, it’s difficult to pick against the Falcons at home. I take Atlanta by the narrowest of margins.

Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals

Both teams are coming off disappointing opening week losses. The Texas fell to the Jaguars at home, while the Bengals got shutout by the Ravens. Houston holds a decided edge in the Strength Oscillator at +7.04 to -9.73, showing the overall trend between the two teams. The Power Ranking Indicator has the teams nearly even at +15 to +18. The Texans won the head-to-head meeting last year as a home favorite. The Bengals are a tree point favorite, but looked terrible week one. I see an upset in this one, as the Texans will win this to even their record at 1-1.

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Did you follow? Here is the recap for week 1

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Fantasy Football Big Board Heading into Final Week of Preseason

Fantasy Football
August 30, 2017

The important part of the preseason games is finally behind us, and in just over a week the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots will open the 2017 regular season, although they’ll do so without Spencer Ware and Julian Edelman, respectively. Those two were casualties of meaningless preseason action, but that means their teammates have to fill the void, like Kareem Hunt and Brandin Cooks. 

If you had your draft at any point in the last three weeks and owned the No. 1 overall pick, you probably held your breath whenever David Johnson was on the field. Luckily, he escaped what little preseason action he saw without injury and can now focus on preparing for Week 1.

In addition to obvious rankings shifts related to injuries, you may notice some changes at running back and wide receiver, specifically in the RB2 and WR2 ranges. Those are the result of reassessing where players fit in and how I feel about teams going into the regular season compared to the start of preseason. Truthfully, I didn’t have a great grasp of every situation at the beginning of August but have learned more in the last few weeks.

This is the final preseason Big Board article, but I’ll continue to update rankings until the opening week of the regular season. You can bookmark this page to see the latest changes.

 

Note: All ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator. All fantasy stats used to calculate finishes from FantasyPros. All advanced stats calculated using data from Pro Football Reference. All stats are based on points per reception (PPR) format.

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Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan Fantasy Outlook After Julian Edelman’s Injury

Fantasy Football
August 26, 2017

The defending Super Bowl champions were dealt a difficult blow when wide receiver Julian Edelman suffered a torn ACL in Friday’s preseason game against the Detroit Lions, but it could lead to even more fantasy production from Brandin Cooks and Chris Hogan.

The New England Patriots announced Edelman will miss the 2017 campaign, and Albert Breer of The MMQB noted an MRI revealed an ACL tear.

Fortunately for the Patriots, they still have Cooks and Hogan as other targets. Here is a look at how the setback will impact their fantasy value, with Hogan’s receiving more of a boost than Cook’s.

         

Brandin Cooks

Whether fantasy football players considered Edelman or Cooks the true No. 1 receiver in New England is up for debate, but Cooks was set to hold a significant role in the offense whether his counterpart was on the field or not.

New England didn’t add him this past offseason to serve as a decoy, especially after he tallied a career-high 1,173 receiving yards last season and 1,138 receiving yards in 2015 while playing for the New Orleans Saints. He also hauled in a combined 17 touchdowns the last two years as a fantasy weapon.

While the absence of Edelman could lead to more double-teams throughout a given game for Cooks, tight end Rob Gronkowski is still there to absorb much of the opposing defense’s attention.

Cooks was a must-start in fantasy circles entering the 2017 campaign as he teamed with arguably the best quarterback in league history in Tom Brady, and Edelman’s injury doesn’t change that.

          

Chris Hogan

While Cooks may face more double-teams, Hogan likely doesn’t have to worry about that even without Edelman given the other weapons around him. Edelman’s targets also have to go elsewhere, and Hogan is in prime position to be on the receiving end of many of those.

He broke through last season with a career-high 680 receiving yards and four touchdown catches, and he hauled in nine catches for 180 yards and two touchdowns in a postseason victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Hogan figured to see an increase in production in 2017 after last year’s showing, but the addition of Cooks moved him down the depth chart and made him more of a risky endeavor for fantasy players.

Edelman’s injury will move him right back up the depth chart, which means Hogan is worth an addition—especially if he is still somehow available on the waiver wire in a given league.

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