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Fantasy Football 2017: Preseason Mock Draft Strategy, Rankings and Analysis

Fantasy Football
August 24, 2017

Fantasy football drafts represent the biggest hurdle between owners and a league championship. 

Owners have other options available to them when it comes to improving rosters. Trades remain a viable avenue and the waiver wire is a good way to dig up production, provided an owner plays his or her cards right and can land, say, a Jordan Howard like many did a year ago. 

But here is the catch: neither option’s door swings open wide without a solid draft. No owner will want to trade with a team lacking assets, and the waiver wire can patch a hole in a boat, not build the thing from scratch.

The draft is the foundation, so let’s provide some resources in the form of a mock draft and general rankings based on a 12-team standard Yahoo league. 

            

Mock Draft

For those new to the fantasy football landscape, a mock draft isn’t going to look anything like the real thing. 

In the real world, quarterbacks come off the board first as potential franchise players, though in hindsight, they’re incredibly difficult to project. In the fantasy landscape, they’re the easiest thing to project on a weekly basis, making it easier to wait until the middle rounds, where owners will still find a recognizable name. 

Quantity is a good way to decide between running back and wide receiver in the first round. David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell are the top-tier scorers at running back because of their usage and ability on the ground and through the air. But they’re alone—for those two, owners can pick from top-tier wideouts like Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr., Julio Jones, Mike Evans and A.J. Green

There is nothing inherently wrong with taking a wideout over a running back in the first round. But look at Johnson, for example, who received 373 touches a year ago, and compare it to Jones, who over the course of 14 games received 129 targets. 

With so few backs receiving notable usage and reliably producing on a year-to-year basis (Howard and Ezekiel Elliott came out of nowhere last year while others faded), it is safe to grab one of the big names in the first or second round and stockpile wideouts later. Brave owners could also employ something called the zero running back strategy and ignore the position outright until the later rounds, where they then target versatile pass-catching backs projected to see usage. 

This flexibility is the beauty of fantasy football because almost any approach can work. A mock like the above outlines the basic value for each position, but it is far from a hard rule.

       

Player Rankings/Cheat Sheet

Based on the information above, it’s not hard to see why rankings fall the way they do. 

Let’s expand on the quarterback ideas mentioned. Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers deserves the nod as the top quarterback a year removed from throwing for 4,428 yards and 40 touchdowns. It’s production worth ignoring a different position, though just how much is an eye-of-the-beholder ordeal. 

Passing on Rodgers to load up on skill positions is certainly viable. Let’s look at a few examples of how to counteract the perceived “loss” of skipping on an early round quarterback by pointing out numbers and average draft position (ADP) of some notables from a year ago: 

  • Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins: 4,917 yards, 25 TD, 12 IND, 10.02 ADP
  • Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions: 4,327 yards, 24 TD, 10 INT, 11.04 ADP 
  • Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: 3,949 total yards, 29 total TD, 4 INT, 12.06 ADP 

Owners can wait until the double-digit rounds and still find solid fantasy producers under center, which in 12-team leagues is a boon. Grabbing a couple guys later after loading up skill positions means an easy job of projecting which player should have the better day. 

Running backs, as readers can guess, is organized by projected touches and versatility. It remains king of fantasy football regardless of how the actual on-turf game continues to involve.

Look at a bit of history, via 4for4’s Chris Raybon (via Sports Illustrated): “They don’t get paid as much as they used to, but elite RBs are still money in the bank in standard fantasy leagues: the position has accounted for 21 of the top 25 fantasy seasons by non-QBs over the past five years.”

At wideout, the great divider other than targets is touchdowns. This is especially the case once the rankings filter through the target hogs. Rishard Matthews (ADP 11.08), who scored nine touchdowns a year ago, will be quite a bit more valuable than, say, Adam Thielen (ADP 11.04), who scored five. 

Tight end is Rob Gronkowski, Tyler Eifert and then the rest. It’s the most matchup-based position of all, so sort the names by targets and look at schedules to come up with who to draft and when. Tight end feels a bit like playing the lottery outside the top two names, but the right gamble can provide the difference in a few matchups per season.

As mentioned, fantasy is an inexact science. Like the NFL itself, players fall off, others emerge, injuries happen and immeasurable variables from location to playing surface to schematics and beyond skew results. The best thing an owner can do, at least, is enter the fray of a live draft with a baseline of information.  

           

All scoring info, points-against info and ownership stats courtesy of Yahoo standard leagues. Average draft position courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator.

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Fantasy Football 2017: Breaking Down Updated Mock Draft and Mobile Cheat Sheet

Fantasy Football
August 16, 2017

Fantasy football draft season is upon us in earnest, with all the preparation that involves. 

There’s no doubt you’ve checked player rankings by position (like these, courtesy of Yahoo Sports) and checked out the average draft positions of players you have your eye on to make sure you’re not overdrafting them.

Whether you’re a fantasy football novice or veteran, don’t underestimate the value of simulating mock drafts on your fantasy platform to get a better idea how your draft might go. 

While there’s no accounting for your fellow fantasy owners going rogue, all in all, fantasy is somewhat predictable; you know that someone isn’t going to reach for Kirk Cousins in Round 1. (And if he or she does…well, your league just got a little easier to win.)

Let’s take a look at the mobile cheat sheet for the top players at each position heading into 2017 and then simulate a mock draft. The cheat sheet and rankings assume a 12-team PPR fantasy league. 

           

Mobile Cheat Sheet

Quarterback 

1. Aaron Rodgers, GB

2. Tom Brady, NE

3. Drew Brees, NO

4. Matt Ryan, ATL

5. Andrew Luck, IND

6. Russell Wilson, SEA

7. Cam Newton, CAR

8. Kirk Cousins, WAS

9. Dak Prescott, DAL

10. Derek Carr, OAK

11. Jameis Winston, TB

12. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT

              

Running Back 

1. Le’Veon Bell, PIT

2. David Johnson, ARI

3. Ezekiel Elliott, DAL

4. LeSean McCoy, BUF

5. Devonta Freeman, ATL

6. Melvin Gordon, LAC

7. Jordan Howard, CHI

8. DeMarco Murray, TEN

9. Jay Ajayi, MIA

10. Lamar Miller, HOU

11. Leonard Fournette, JAC

12. Todd Gurley, LAR

13. Marshawn Lynch, OAK

14. Christian McCaffrey, CAR

15. Isaiah Crowell, CLE

16. Bilal Powell, NYJ

17. Carlos Hyde, SF

18. Danny Woodhead, BAL

19. Mark Ingram, NO

20. Joe Mixon, CIN

21. Ty Montgomery, GB

22. Frank Gore, IND

23. Theo Riddick, DET

24. Spencer Ware, KC

                    

Wide Receiver

1. Antonio Brown, PIT

2. Julio Jones, ATL

3. Odell Beckham Jr., NYG

4. Mike Evans, TB

5. A.J. Green, CIN

6. Jordy Nelson, GB

7. T.Y. Hilton, IND

8. Michael Thomas, NO

9. Dez Bryant, DAL

10. Amari Cooper, OAK

11. Alshon Jeffery, PHI

12. Demaryius Thomas, DEN

13. Doug Baldwin, SEA

14. DeAndre Hopkins, WAS

15. Brandin Cooks, NE

16. Keenan Allen, LAC

17. Sammy Watkins, LAR

18. Jarvis Landry, MIA

19. Terrelle Pryor, WAS

20. Julian Edelman, NE

21. Golden Tate, DET

22. Michael Crabtree, OAK

23. Allen Robinson, JAC

24. Emmanuel Sanders, DEN

         

Tight End 

1. Rob Gronkowski, NE

2. Jordan Reed, WAS

3. Travis Kelce, KC

4. Greg Olsen, CAR

5. Delanie Walker, TEN

6. Kyle Rudolph, MIN

7. Tyler Eifert, CIN

8. Jimmy Graham, SEA

9. Zach Ertz, PHI

10. Martellus Bennett, GB

11. Hunter Henry, LAC

12. Eric Ebron, DET

          

D/ST

1. Broncos

2. Seahawks

3. Chiefs

4. Texans

5. Vikings

6. Cardinals 

7. Patriots

8. Panthers

9. Bengals

10. Jaguars

11. Eagles

12. Giants

          

Mock Draft

QB: Dak Prescott (Round 8)

RB: David Johnson (Round 1)

RB: C.J. Anderson (Round 5)

WR: Amari Cooper (Round 2)

WR: Brandin Cooks (Round 3)

WR: Keenan Allen (Round 4)

TE: Kyle Rudolph (Round 7)

K: Adam Vinatieri (Round 11)

D/ST: Minnesota (Round 10)

Bench: Ameer Abdullah (Round 6), Pierre Garcon (Round 9), Carson Palmer (Round 12), Coby Fleener (Round 13), Will Fuller V (Round 14), Pittsburgh (Round 15)

 

In this Yahoo Sports mock snake draft, I owned the first pick in all odd-numbered rounds and the last pick in all even-numbered rounds.

It was a good way to strategize the difficult position of owning the No. 1 overall pick. Though I was able to grab the top-ranked overall player in David Johnson, I wasn’t thrilled that, 24 spots later, my No. 1 receiver was Amari Cooper, who is working through an injury.

But with my back-to-back picks, I shored up my receiving corps quick by grabbing Brandin Cooks, who should have an explosive year in New England. 

Mock drafts help you see what other people value, and even though those values may not be reflective of the actual fantasy owners in your league, it’s eye-opening. For instance, in my mock draft, someone grabbed Tom Brady at No. 34 overall, which generally goes against all accepted wisdom.

For the most part, however, the other fantasy managers typically followed the recommended Yahoo rankings. My strategy was to fill my wide receiver and running back spots first and grab a great flex option in Ameer Abdullah. 

Then, I addressed tight end, jumping ahead of the recommended rankings by a few spots to grab Kyle Rudolph. The system might have regarded that as a reach, but I had already added some bench strength in Abdullah and wanted a difference-maker at tight end. 

Finally, in Round 8, I grabbed my quarterback, exactly where I had wanted to. Then I worked on filling out my bench a little more before I addressed my remaining starting spots: defense/special teams and kicker. 

Admittedly, I stepped away for a little too long for my final pick and the computer autodrafted a second defense for me.

This isn’t necessarily a strategy I’d advocate in place of another skill player on the bench (injuries are real, y’all), but it’s not the worst idea so that you can stream whichever unit has the better matchup from week to week.

         

Player rankings via Yahoo Sports. Average draft position courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator.

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Fantasy Football 2017: 2-Round Mock Draft, Top Team Names and League Names

Fantasy Football
August 12, 2017

Although the NFL preseason hardly matters, its commencing serves as a wake-up call for fantasy football players to begin draft preparation.

The New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs kick off the 2017 campaign on Sept. 7. Until then, fantasy contestants must keep track of all league happenings and practice with mock drafts.

Some major news unfolded on Friday, when the NFL officially suspended Ezekiel Elliott for six games after concluding its domestic violence investigation. The fantasy fallout is hardly the important element of this story, but it will alter the first round.

He consequently dropped to No. 17 in Yahoo Sports’ rankings, so let’s use that as a baseline for this two-round mock draft, simulated for a 12-team league with standard scoring. Then let’s examine the updated early strategy for someone drawing the No. 3 selection.

         

 

 

 

 

Mock Draft

1.1: David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals

1.2: Le’Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

1.3: Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

1.4: Odell Beckham Jr., WR, New York Giants

1.5: Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons

1.6: LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills

1.7: Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1.8: Melvin Gordon, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

1.9: Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons

1.10: A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

1.11: Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers

1.12: Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints

 

2.1: Jordan Howard, RB, Chicago Bears

2.2: Jay Ajayi, RB, Miami Dolphins

2.3: DeMarco Murray, RB, Tennessee Titans

2.4: Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

2.5: Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys

2.6: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys

2.7: T.Y Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts

2.8: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

2.9: Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots

2.10: Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams

2.11: Marshawn Lynch, RB, Oakland Raiders

2.12: Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle Seahawks

         

 

 

 

 

Round 1 Pick: Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Antonio Brown joins David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell as an easy top-three choice in all formats.

There’s no safer wide receiver on the board than the Pittsburgh Steelers star, who has caught a combined 481 receptions over the past four seasons. Having notched double-digit touchdowns three years in a row, he doesn’t depend on point-per-reception scoring. Yet the stipulation gives him a Secretariat-sized lead over all other wideouts.

Investors should not fret Martavis Bryant’s return. When they shared the field for 11 games in 2015, Brown tallied 99 receptions, 1,311 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. Playing alongside a deep threat opens up the field for Brown, who had 22 catches of 20 or more yards last season.

His target share dropped all the way to 26 percent in 2016, but the 29-year-old would have led or tied the NFL in receptions for the third straight year if not for sitting out Week 17 with playoff seeding solidified. 

Business is still booming for Brown, so don’t pass up a sure thing with pick No. 3.

        

 

 

 

 

Round 2 Pick: Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams

Todd Gurley possesses a far lighter track record. Taken as an early first-round pick in 2015, the running back averaged a bleak 3.2 yards per carry and scored just six touchdowns last year. Don’t expect to buy a bounce-back campaign at a discount. 

On individual talent, the 23-year-old remains a premier rusher. The Los Angeles Rams’ NFL-worst offense dragged him down last season, but a horrible unit couldn’t prevent him from averaging 99.5 yards per game.

With the Jeff Fisher era finally over, perhaps the Rams will resemble a 21st century offense. New head coach Sean McVay oversaw Washington’s No. 3-ranked unit as the offensive coordinator last year. Filling that role for the Rams is Matt LaFleur, who helped turn the Atlanta Falcons offense into a juggernaut.

Only four backs received more handoffs than Gurley’s 278. While he will stay a focal point of the offense, McVay expressed the importance of establishing a better balance to ESPN.com’s Alden Gonzalez.

“When you have a special player like Todd, you want to continue to find ways to get him involved but also be mindful of, ‘What is that fine balance between him being at his best and not wearing him out?'” McVay said. “That is something that we’re continuing to find out.”

Per the Ventura County Star‘s Joe Curley, McVay spoke fondly his young star’s offseason progress:

The Rams found some much-needed help. On Friday, as confirmed via Twitter, they enhanced their passing game by acquiring Sammy Watkins from the Buffalo Bills:

Drafters should gladly exchange some touches for fewer stuffed boxes and more red-zone visits. Beside, there’s no threat of Gurley splitting carries, and his overall volume won’t suffer too much if the Rams stay on the field longer.

Marshawn Lynch plays for a far superior Oakland Raiders offensive line, but he’s eight years older and slated for a smaller workload. He also averaged 3.8 yards per rush when last seen, in 2015, so a second-round investment is too steep a gamble.

Rather than hoping the 2014 version of Beast Mode returns, let’s see whether the 2015 Gurley resurfaces. Although he comes with more risk (and reward) than the typical Round 2 selection, the high volume raises his floor enough to warrant the wager.

         

 

 

 

 

Team Names

  • Pickle Fitzpatrick
  • Les Kirk Cousins Dangereux
  • Any Pun on Dak Prescott (“Dak To the Future”) or Adam Thielen (“Hooked on a Thielen”)
  • King of Jaelen Strong Style
  • Jeremy Maclin, FBI
  • Doyle Rules
  • The Be Tajae Sharpes
  • The Gurley Show with Lacy and Jordan
  • Ajayi Another Day

Anyone searching online for a clever team name is missing the point. Where’s the fun in lifting someone else’s idea?

Picking “Gronky Kong” or “Demaryius Targaryen” is the equivalent to naming a child “John.” That’s fine, but don’t be surprised when other classmates have the same name. 

Puns on player names are often fun but not always necessary. Choosing one from a random internet list is like a getting a butterfly tattoo. Find something that’s meaningful to you, but don’t force it. 

Also on the avoid list: middle-school jokes and an actual NFL team name. At least make an effort.

        

 

 

 

 

League Names

  • The Goulden Company (only works for this author and fellow Goulds)
  • The Jeff Fisher League of Mediocrity
  • 12 Angry Men (try deeper leagues with diversity)
  • Dirty Dozen (shower on Sunday morning?)
  • A League of Their Own
  • A League Has No Name
  • A Song of Matty Ice and Fire (are the Game of Thrones references getting old yet?)
  • The Bullock Club

League names, meanwhile, are best reserved for inside jokes or generic group descriptions. Honestly, who even pays attention to the league’s title? This writer can’t recall the name of the intact league he joined back when Maurice Jones-Drew and Andre Johnson were first-round talents.

A league by any other name will still stink unless it consists of active and informed participants who understand that fantasy football is a fun diversion. Spend more energy on winning the league than naming it.

       

Note: All statistics obtained and calculated using data from Pro Football Reference.

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Fantasy Football 2017: Top Player Rankings, Ideas for Team Names, League Names

Fantasy Football
August 8, 2017

August has arrived, which means fantasy football drafts are in full swing. 

If you have yet to draft your championship-winning roster for the 2017 season, we’re here to help.

The projected top players at each skill position, as well as top defense/special teams units and kickers, are listed below.

Fantasy team owners in 12-team leagues should be able to find a starting quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers and a starting tight end among the following recommended players. 

Before drafting, be sure to take advantage of your host website’s mock draft, and, above all, make absolutely sure that you have ranked players in case of autodrafting.

We all know WiFi is the most fickle of friends.  

The following rankings are via ESPN and applicable to 12-team PPR leagues. 

          

Top Player Rankings

 

Quarterback 

1. Aaron Rodgers, GB

2. Tom Brady, NE

3. Drew Brees, NO

4. Matt Ryan, ATL

5. Andrew Luck, IND

6. Russell Wilson, SEA

7. Cam Newton, CAR

8. Kirk Cousins, WAS

9. Dak Prescott, DAL

10. Derek Carr, OAK

11. Jameis Winston, TB

12. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT

         

Running Back 

1. Le’Veon Bell, PIT

2. David Johnson, ARI

3. Ezekiel Elliott, DAL

4. LeSean McCoy, BUF

5. Devonta Freeman, ATL

6. Melvin Gordon, LAC

7. Jordan Howard, CHI

8. DeMarco Murray, TEN

9. Jay Ajayi, MIA

10. Lamar Miller, HOU

11. Leonard Fournette, JAC

12. Todd Gurley, LAR

13. Marshawn Lynch, OAK

14. Christian McCaffrey, CAR

15. Isaiah Crowell, CLE

16. Bilal Powell, NYJ

17. Carlos Hyde, SF

18. Danny Woodhead, BAL

19. Mark Ingram, NO

20. Joe Mixon, CIN

21. Ty Montgomery, GB

22. Frank Gore, IND

23. Theo Riddick, DET

24. Spencer Ware, KC

          

Wide Receiver

1. Antonio Brown, PIT

2. Julio Jones, ATL

3. Odell Beckham Jr., NYG

4. Mike Evans, TB

5. A.J. Green, CIN

6. Jordy Nelson, GB

7. T.Y. Hilton, IND

8. Michael Thomas, NO

9. Dez Bryant, DAL

10. Amari Cooper, OAK

11. Alshon Jeffery, PHI

12. Demaryius Thomas, DEN

13. Doug Baldwin, SEA

14. DeAndre Hopkins, WAS

15. Brandin Cooks, NE

16. Keenan Allen, LAC

17. Sammy Watkins, BUF

18. Jarvis Landry, MIA

19. Terrelle Pryor, WAS

20. Julian Edelman, NE

21. Golden Tate, DET

22. Michael Crabtree, OAK

23. Allen Robinson, JAC

24. Emmanuel Sanders, DEN

 

Tight End 

1. Rob Gronkowski, NE

2. Jordan Reed, WAS

3. Travis Kelce, KC

4. Greg Olsen, CAR

5. Delanie Walker, TEN

6. Kyle Rudolph, MIN

7. Tyler Eifert, CIN

8. Jimmy Graham, SEA

9. Zach Ertz, PHI

10. Martellus Bennett, GB

11. Hunter Henry, LAC

12. Eric Ebron, DET

          

D/ST

1. Broncos

2. Seahawks

3. Chiefs

4. Texans

5. Vikings

6. Cardinals 

7. Patriots

8. Panthers

9. Bengals

10. Jaguars

11. Eagles

12. Giants

           

Team and League Name Ideas

What’s in a name? 

In fantasy football, everything. 

Let’s say you don’t win your league; there’s only a 1-in-12 (or 1-in-10, or 1-in-14…etc.) chance you will. You can still go down with your head held high and an epic name. 

Below are suggestions for clever, punny and funny team and league names.

          

Team Names

Amari 2600

Baby Got Dak

Bend It Like Beckham Jr. 

The Brady Bunch 

Brady Gaga

Corn on the Cobb

Dak to the Future

Dalvin and the Chipmunks

Forgetting Brandon Marshall

Game of Jones

Golden Tate Warriors

Green Eggs and Cam

Guess Who’s Dak

Lady Luck

Le’Veon a Prayer

Lordy Lordy Here Comes Jordy

Luck Be a Brady 

Remember the Titans 

Rodger That

Super Mario-ta

Turn Down for Watt

You Down with J.P.P?

         

League Names

12 Angry (Wo)Men

A League of Our Own

Any Given Sunday 

The Avengers 

Easy Money 

Game of Inches 

In It to Win It 

Justice League

League of Extraordinary Gentlemen 

League of Legends 

League of Nations

Out of Your League

Secret Wars 

Sunday Funday 

There Can Be Only One 

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Fantasy Football 2017: 1st-Round Mock Draft and Winning Strategy

Fantasy Football
August 7, 2017

Here’s a bit of bad news for everyone hoping to get an upper hand on fantasy football competitors with meticulous preseason research: Everyone else is doing it, too.

No longer a niche hobby, fantasy football is now a massive enterprise capturing mainstream recognition. And sure, many casual players just pick players from their favorite team. While the idea to never take a kicker before the last round is common knowledge to any seasoned player, it’s repeated ad nauseam because inexperienced participants commit the cardinal sin every year.

Maybe it’s still possible to dominate a family or free public league after scarfing down a few articles. In a long-running group of serious players, that’s the minimum requirement.

But hey, everyone needs to start somewhere. Let’s keep things simple with an early first-round mock draft before examining some general draft guidelines.

              

Round 1 Mock Draft

1. Le’Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

2. David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals 

3. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys

4. Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

5. Odell Beckham Jr., WR, New York Giants

6. Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons

7. LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills

8. Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

9. A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

10. Melvin Gordon, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

11. Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons

12. DeMarco Murray, RB, Tennessee Titans

        

These dozen picks were simulated using Fantasy Pros’ Draft Wizard. The settings used standard scoring, with the software selecting based on average draft positions (ADP) and pre-draft rankings from multiple sources.

Certain years have drafters hoping for a late pick instead of early spot. Snatching two studs occasionally beats reaching for someone with the fourth slot only a hair better than the ninth choice. 

This is not one of those years. Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott form a clear top tier of running backs who will fly off the board. Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr. and Julio Jones should round out the top six, especially in point-per-reception (PPR) formats.

Randomly assigned the 10th slot, this writer never stood a chance at snagging any of them. Even landing a safe stud in LeSean McCoy or wideout with league-winning upside, like Mike Evans and A.J. Green, was too good to be true.

Instead, the choice boiled down to Melvin Gordon, Jordy Nelson—who went 14th in the simulation—and Devonta Freeman. All are strong choices, but none is particularly a money-in-the-bank building block.

The Los Angeles Chargers running back certainly comes with risk. He owed his breakout campaign to volume, averaging a tame 3.9 yards per carry and ranking 29th at the position in both Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement and Defense-adjusted Value Over Average.

After leading shrewd drafters to the fantasy playoffs, Gordon got hurt early in Week 14 and missed the final three games. Nevertheless, he finished with 1,416 total yards and 12 touchdowns. He never left owners empty-handed when healthy for all 60 minutes, compiling 470 yards in those four contests where he didn’t reach the end zone.

The first round is a huge leap for someone who offered 13 games of success, but the 24-year-old could still discover another gear. He averaged 4.7 yards per rush over his last five full games, during which he tallied 775 yards from scrimmage. Had he completed his sophomore campaign, Gordon would probably instead be battling McCoy for the seventh seat.

             

Strategy Section

Stability Early, Upside Late

In all honesty, the first round shouldn’t require as much scrutiny as the later action. And anyone reading about the top-12 picks better not spend the full time before choosing. This is supposed to be the easy portion of the draft.

Nobody is going to outthink the competition during the early rounds. Everyone else knows Marshawn Lynch is back and Leonard Fournette is a potential superstar. Both running backs are marked up considerably, probably to the point where snagging one necessitates overpaying.

In snake drafts, the first few picks are about building a stable foundation. Wait for the later rounds to swing for the fences.

Consider Alshon Jeffery, who has a No. 33 consensus ADP according to FantasyPros. The third-round sticker tag is far too rich for someone with 106 receptions and six touchdowns over the last two seasons combined. Health is a skill, and he missed 15 games during those campaigns.

Those troubles have surfaced already; a shoulder strain sidelined him in practice before returning on Sunday. Per Eagles Wire’s Turron Davenport, head coach Doug Pederson is obviously more focused on having him suit up for Week 1’s opener against Washington.

“I can’t tell you,” Pederson said regarding Jeffery’s availability for Thursday’s preseason game “I haven’t set the rosters yet. We’re not playing games for a while, we just want to get him ready for Washington.”

If he falls, Jeffery warrants the gamble as low-end second wideout. His current price, however, doesn’t account enough for the risk. The same can be said for Keenan Allen, who has played 38 games in four seasons.

High-reward picks are vital to winning a championship, but save most of them for the middle and later rounds. Although boring veterans are not as fun to draft, Larry Fitzgerald and Frank Gore will deliver a solid return on investment while giving drafters more comfort to chase this year’s Gordon later.

            

Draft Value, Not Positions

Numerous gamers, including many successful ones, will stick to a specific blueprint. Waiting on quarterback is in style. An emergence of studs has challenged the Zero RB plan, but PPR drafters may especially still load up on pass-catchers early. 

This isn’t a knock on those strategies. They can work when properly executed. Strictly adhering to them, however, can cause drafters to leave value on the table. That’s a no-no.

Quarterbacks are plentiful. A Matthew Stafford-Tyrod Taylor platoon can lead to fantasy glory if managed properly, and it’d require minimal draft capital which gamers could instead invest on skill players.

But if Drew Brees slips to the fifth round, why not pounce? 

He’s the perfect embodiment of the above desire for stability. Over the last nine years, the New Orleans Saints gunslinger has thrown at least 32 passing touchdowns with no fewer than 4,388 passing yards in each season.

As illustrated by Pro Football Focus’ fantasy football Twitter page, he’s the undisputed king of 300-yard games:

Barring an injury—he has missed two games in 11 seasons with the Saints—Brees will finish as a top-10 fantasy quarterback. Aside from owners swearing to never play fantasy again after losing a matchup because of an opposing kicker, there’s no a safer prediction in all of fantasy football. Pairing him with a pair of top-tier running backs and wideouts would create a formidable lineup.

This isn’t a plea to pursue Brees at all cost. Don’t panic and grab him right after leaguemates reach for Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady in the second round. For that matter, don’t get swept up in any position run unless someone remaining represents the end of a tier.

If everyone else keeps reading about the virtue of waiting on signal-callers, counteract their caution by stealing a stud at a discount. Every drafter’s main goal should be to leave the draft with the most possible value, so take it wherever it’s given.

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