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Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch, Jimmy Graham Post-Week 6 Fantasy Advice

Fantasy Football
October 18, 2015

The Seattle Seahawks don’t look like a playoff team through six weeks, let alone the group that reached the last two Super Bowls from the NFC.

Despite their 2-4 record after Sunday’s loss to the Carolina Panthers, Seattle’s offensive playmakers at least provided impressive fantasy numbers for owners relying on a late-afternoon boost. Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch and Jimmy Graham all turned in solid fantasy performances in what was otherwise a dismal performance from Seattle.

Here is a look at their final totals and some reactions for each player.

Russell Wilson

Carolina sacked Wilson four times in Sunday’s loss and forced him to run for his life on seemingly every dropback. That is a concern for fantasy owners who are hoping he stays healthy all year, especially since Football Outsiders ranked the Seahawks offensive line dead last in the league in pass blocking through five weeks.

Health concerns aside, unless you are in a league that penalizes quarterbacks for taking sacks, the fact that Wilson has to scramble on a consistent basis opens up fantasy scoring opportunities. His legs make him dangerous, and he already has 251 rushing yards in six games.

What’s more, the pressure is not forcing him into crippling mistakes, with only three interceptions on the season.

Wilson boasts a trustworthy track record with more than 3,000 passing yards and at least 20 touchdown tosses in each of his first three seasons. The fact that Seattle’s defense appears vulnerable this season has also forced the Seahawks to air it out more often in the early going.

In fact, Wilson has thrown at least 30 times in four of his team’s six contests this year, which has provided him with opportunities to rack up consistent fantasy production. He will continue to do so in 2015, regardless of his team’s record.

Marshawn Lynch

Seattle’s offensive line has been better in the rushing attack, as Football Outsiders ranked it 13th in the league through Week 5.

Still, that hasn’t resulted in big numbers for Lynch. Sunday’s 54 rushing yards were his most since he posted 73 in Week 1. At least, he finally scored his first touchdown of the year, which rescued fantasy owners from another lackluster outing.

Lynch’s track record, with six seasons of more than 1,000 rushing yards and double-digit touchdown totals in each of the last four years, is why he is largely considered to be one of the best players in the league. However, that doesn’t do fantasy owners any good in 2015.

Lynch dealt with injury problems earlier this season and is 29 years old, with more than 2,000 carries in his career. Perhaps the wear is finally taking its toll on the star.

Fantasy owners should give Lynch the benefit of the doubt as he gradually becomes healthy, given his past, but the mediocre offensive line, age and workload concerns are causing owners to hesitate for the first time in years.

Jimmy Graham

Speaking of trustworthy track records, Graham topped 1,200 yards in two of the last four seasons and posted double-digit touchdown totals three times in that span.

He took some time to grow accustomed to his new role in a Seattle offense that doesn’t spread the ball around as much as Drew Brees used to for the New Orleans Saints, but Graham finally looked like his superstar self in Sunday’s contest.

What’s more, his 12 targets were eight more than anyone else on the team saw, and Wilson trusts him when plays break down because of poor protection.

Like Lynch, Graham should earn the benefit of the doubt in fantasy circles, especially at the tight end position, which doesn’t have as many consistent contributors as running back and wide receiver. The fact that he finally looked like the superstar fantasy owners have seen in recent years is more reason to insert him into your lineup every week.

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Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, Michael Floyd's Post-Week 6 Fantasy Advice

Fantasy Football
October 18, 2015

The Arizona Cardinals took a damaging 25-13 loss to a Pittsburgh Steelers team that was down to its third-string quarterback in Landry Jones on Sunday, although the Arizona wide receivers certainly did their part.

While the production from Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and Michael Floyd wasn’t enough to earn the Cardinals the win, it likely won some fantasy football games. The three pass-catchers combined for 339 receiving yards and a touchdown and kept their team in the game with the rushing attack struggling.

Here is a look at their individual performances and some reaction.

Larry Fitzgerald

Fitzgerald is 32 years old, but he is in the middle of a career-reviving season with a healthy Carson Palmer throwing him passes. Fitzgerald averaged more than 97 yards a game through six weeks, and he also counts six touchdown catches on his resume.

What’s more, Palmer targeted the veteran at least seven times in each outing, and Sunday was the fourth game Arizona targeted Fitzgerald nine or more times.

The combination of those numbers, Fitzgerald’s obvious rapport with Palmer in the early going and his track record with six different seasons of more than 1,000 receiving yards and five seasons of double-digit touchdown catches makes Fitzgerald a must-start in fantasy circles in 2015.

John Brown

The week-to-week consistency fantasy owners have seen with Fitzgerald has not been in place for Brown thus far, but Sunday’s breakout performance felt like a harbinger.

Brown’s 14 targets were by far the most of his season, although it was only the second time all year the Cardinals threw his way more than seven times. While it was the first time Brown topped 75 receiving yards in a game in 2015, the encouraging thing is the constant improvement in the numbers, as can be seen below:

This is only Brown’s second season in the league, so any sign of improvement is encouraging as he becomes more accustomed to NFL defenses. It is also a sign that opposing secondaries are keying on Fitzgerald after a hot start, which has opened Brown up the past few weeks.

Brown is not a surefire lock to play every week unless you are weak at receiver, but the 25-year-old is worth flex consideration given the boost he provided fantasy owners the past three games.

Michael Floyd

Brown’s performance Sunday felt like a sign of things to come given his youth and steady uptick this season. The same cannot be said about Floyd.

Floyd’s touchdown catch saved what would have otherwise been a pedestrian performance. It was also his first score of the season, so it’s not like there is a 2015 track record in place for the former Notre Dame star finding the end zone.

Floyd still hasn’t even reached 60 receiving yards in a single game, and it is fairly clear at this point he is the third option in the passing attack. He demonstrated steady but not explosive production last year on his way to 841 receiving yards and six touchdowns, but fantasy owners haven’t seen it this year, even with Sunday’s score.

Floyd should not be a starter on your fantasy team at this point.

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Ryan Tannehill, Lamar Miller, Rishard Matthews' Post-Week 6 Fantasy Advice

Fantasy Football
October 18, 2015

If you started Ryan Tannehill or Lamar Miller out of necessity this week, then Sunday went much better than you were likely expecting following the Miami Dolphins‘ 38-10 win over the Tennessee Titans.

Tannehill didn’t have a great game, but he sat in 12th place in fantasy points at his position on NFL.com following Week 6’s earlier games:

On one hand, the Cincinnati BengalsAndy Dalton seems to be bucking the notion a quarterback can’t radically change his stripes after a few years in the league. Most had written off Dalton as top-tier NFL QB, but he’s on pace to shatter personal bests in just about every category.

Then again, when has Tannehill shown himself to be anything more than a slightly above-average QB?

Whatever progress he made in 2014 hasn’t transferred over to this year. Even after Sunday, his completion percentage is still under 60 percent, and he has nine touchdowns to seven interceptions—a less than ideal ratio.

Tannehill is a great option as a QB2. You don’t want to rely on the 27-year-old every week, but you could do much worse should your normal starter go down injured or have a bye in the upcoming week.

He also brings a certain level of security in that the Dolphins aren’t going to hand the keys to the offense off to another quarterback as long as Tannehill is healthy. Avoiding quarterback controversies is always a good thing for your fantasy team.

Like Tannehill, Miller had an encouraging 2014 campaign, only to be one of the more frustrating fantasy backs in the league again.

For the first time this year, the 24-year-old eclipsed the century mark on the ground:

To put those numbers in perspective, Miller entered Week 6 with 131 yards on 37 carries in his first four games. Omar Kelly of the Sun Sentinel thought a new head coach in Dan Campbell played a role in Miller’s increased usage:

You’re truly tempting fate if you’re relying on Miller to be anything more than a flex option or low-end RB2. He is essentially Darren McFadden—constantly on the verge of a proverbial breakout that never comes.

Maybe Miller truly has turned a corner with Campbell as the Dolphins’ head coach, but Miller has time and again shown you can’t read too much into a one-game sample size. Worth mentioning as well is the fact the Tennessee Titans ranked 28th in Football Outsiders‘ rush defense DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) entering Week 6.

Give it a few more weeks, and if the Miami running back is still running the ball this successfully, we can talk about him as an RB1.

Should Miami be committed to giving Miller more touches, it could hinder Rishard Matthews’ fantasy potential.

Matthews has emerged as a good WR2/flex this year, but be careful about staking too much of your hopes on his production.

His numbers from Sunday were solid, but the lack of a touchdown held him back:

The trouble with Matthews is twofold.

For one, Tannehill is his quarterback. As a result, some level of variance in Matthews’ targets from week to week is to be expected. When Tannehill is good, his entire receiving corps will receive a boost. But when Tannehill is bad, it’s going to drag the entire offense down.

Also concerning is Matthews’ place in the Miami offense. Jarvis Landry has received the most targets so far this year, and the combination of Jordan Cameron and Dion Sims could steal some looks when the Dolphins are in the red zone.

This isn’t to say you should drop Matthews completely, but be prepared for some lean weeks interspersed with his more encouraging performances.

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Brian Hoyer, DeAndre Hopkins, Cecil Shorts' Post-Week 6 Fantasy Advice

Fantasy Football
October 18, 2015

Congratulations, Houston Texans. You are not the worst team in the AFC South.

Houston proved as much Sunday with its 31-20 victory over the 1-5 Jacksonville Jaguars and pleased plenty of fantasy owners relying on the quarterback-receiver combo of Brian Hoyer and DeAndre Hopkins in the process. Hoyer did not throw a pick and guided his team to the win with the help of his favorite target and Cecil Shorts III.

Sure, it came against a 1-5 team that hasn’t finished with a winning record since 2007 and is consistently one of the worst in the league, but at least Hopkins has been consistently performing all season. Here is a look at the final tallies and some reaction to the Texans playmakers.

Brian Hoyer

Hoyer made it clear Sunday with three touchdown passes that he deserves to be the starting quarterback on this team. Most impressively, all three scoring throws occurred on third down and made the difference between a victory and defeat.

However, there is a word of caution when it comes to trusting Hoyer for fantasy purposes.

Last season was the first time in his career he threw more than 96 pass attempts in a single year, and he finished with 12 touchdowns and 13 picks. What’s more, the Jaguars were 21st in the league against the pass entering Sunday’s contest and 31st in points allowed per game.

While Hoyer is far from must-start status with those precautions, he is at least worthy of consideration as a bye-week or injury replacement if your normal quarterback is out of the lineup.

This was his third straight impressive showing (837 passing yards, seven touchdown tosses and one interception in his last three outings), and Houston’s defense was 24th in the league in points allowed per game before Sunday’s showdown. With a struggling defense, the Texans will likely be forced to throw plenty more this season.

That gives Hoyer some true fantasy value.

DeAndre Hopkins

There are no Jaguars-related qualifiers with Hopkins—he is a legitimate fantasy stud.

Sunday was his fourth straight game with more than 100 receiving yards, and he boasts open-field speed (4.57 40-yard dash), the ability to make defenders miss after the catch and athleticism at 6’1” to go up and get the ball.

Even with all those traits, the targets number was most encouraging from Sunday’s performance. His 15 targets were nine more than anyone else on the team, which was more of the same given his season totals below:

The Texans are not afraid to lock in on Hopkins and fire the ball his way early and often in 2015. Fortunately for fantasy owners, he has the talent to convert those targets into monster numbers every week.

Cecil Shorts

Hopkins’ target numbers are discouraging if you are relying on any other Houston receiver, including Shorts.

Shorts notched a season-low six targets during Sunday’s game, although he did boast a solid 15.8 yards per catch against his former team in the victory.

Between Hopkins and Arian Foster, Shorts is going to be the third option to get the ball at best for the Texans offense every week. It would be one thing if Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady were the quarterback spreading the ball around to a number of playmakers, but Hoyer (and Ryan Mallett when he played) seemed intent on finding Hopkins.

Shorts only has one touchdown catch on the season and is yet to reach 90 receiving yards in a single game. He is not worthy of occupying a starting role on your fantasy team at this point.

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Chris Ivory, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brandon Marshall's Post-Week 6 Fantasy Advice

Fantasy Football
October 18, 2015

The New York Jets exploded offensively on Sunday, and quite a few fantasy owners reaped the rewards.

Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, running back Chris Ivory and wideout Brandon Marshall all had huge games, posting big numbers against Washington.

While Ivory and Marshall have pulled their weight for fantasy owners this year, Fitzpatrick was the surprise of the day, eclipsing the 20-point mark for the first time this season.

Fantasy owners shouldn’t expect that sort of production regularly, however. Fitzpatrick’s previous high in fantasy points was 15 in Week 2 against the Indianapolis Colts, and he was facing a porous Washington secondary in Week 6. He’s nothing more than a low-end QB2 consideration in deeper leagues.

Chris Ivory, on the other hand, is quickly entering the RB1 conversation after his second consecutive performance with 20 or more fantasy points and his third this season. While Ivory may be a bit streaky at times—he had just five fantasy points in Week 2 and didn’t play in Week 3—it’s clear he’s the starter for a Jets team that wants to run the ball with regularity.

In a season with so much turmoil at the running back position for fantasy owners, that makes Ivory incredibly valuable and a must-start player every week.

Marshall, meanwhile, continues to be one of fantasy’s most consistent wide receivers, as he’s registered double-digit points in every game this season and has 100 or more receiving yards in four consecutive games.

The success the Jets have had throwing the ball has been a pleasant surprise, especially for fantasy owners, who likely drafted Marshall to be a WR2 but have gotten WR1 production from the veteran. He clearly has a strong rapport with Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has played well enough to keep the starting job even when Geno Smith returns from injury.

Regardless of who is under center, expect Marshall to remain a focal point in this offense.

All fantasy stats courtesy of ESPN standard leagues.

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