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Russell Wilson, Thomas Rawls, Doug Baldwin Post-Week 13 Fantasy Advice

Fantasy Football
December 6, 2015

There was a time when the two-time defending NFC champion Seattle Seahawks were 2-4 and left for dead by many around the league. That seems like ancient history after four wins in the last five games, including three straight victories.

Perhaps the only people happier about Seattle’s turnaround than Seahawks fans are fantasy owners who are relying on the team’s offensive playmakers. Russell Wilson has been a superstar in recent weeks, Doug Baldwin is emerging as a topnotch wide receiver and Thomas Rawls is the waiver-wire pickup of the season. 

Here is a look at the final tallies for each after Sunday’s 38-7 win over the Minnesota Vikings as well as some fantasy reactions:

Wilson was particularly impressive Sunday with 274 passing yards and 51 rushing yards, but he would have tallied even more on the ground were it not for a penalty. He made up for it, though, as Tom Pelissero of USA Today highlighted:

Nothing seems to be bothering Wilson during this hot streak, and fantasy owners are the beneficiaries.

Few quarterbacks can run like Wilson, and he gave fantasy owners a serious boost Sunday. He has 450 rushing yards on the season, although the combination of his skills on the ground with arguably the best season of his career in terms of throwing the ball is what makes him dangerous.

Wilson has topped 200 passing yards in every contest this season and is averaging 249.75 yards through the air per game. If he keeps that up for rest of the year, he will finish with 3,996 passing yards, which would be 521 more than any other campaign in his career.

Wilson is a must-start every week, especially as the Seahawks continue to turn their season around behind his arm.

In the past, an injury to Marshawn Lynch would have been crippling for Seattle’s offense, but Rawls has picked up the slack.

The backup was dominant again Sunday, but his carry totals are as important as his final yardage when projecting ahead. He has compiled 70 rushes in the last three weeks, and it is crystal-clear the Seahawks trust him to be a workhorse running back in the playoff hunt. Rawls has rewarded them with 391 rushing yards over the last three weeks, and he has even picked up 68 receiving yards during that span.

Rawls’ speed and athleticism in the open field allow him to make defenders miss, and he is powerful enough to pick up tough yardage on critical third downs. Given Seattle’s willingness to give him the ball and his ability to turn that trust into impressive yardage totals, Rawls will be a fantasy superstar for the rest of the season. 

Congratulations if you signed him off the waiver wire following Lynch’s injury.

Baldwin has a solid track record, with three seasons of at least 778 receiving yards in the last four years, but he struggled to make an impact in Seattle’s offense early in 2015. That is no longer the case, as you can see from his past four games:

Suddenly, Baldwin is a touchdown machine, and the fact that Jimmy Graham (knee) is out for the season makes him more dangerous in fantasy circles. Baldwin is Seattle’s No. 1 pass-catcher at this point, and Wilson is airing it out more successfully than he has throughout his career.

That combination is fantasy gold, and Baldwin is worth a start in any format until he proves otherwise.

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Week 14 Waiver Wire: Fantasy Football's Top Breakout Candidates and Pickups

Fantasy Football
December 6, 2015

While we are far past the point of the fantasy football season when waiver-wire moves make or break a campaign, all it takes is one shrewd addition to take home a championship. The dark-horse running back or the overlooked wide receiver who just so happens to explode during the fantasy football playoffs can overshadow an entire season of dominance from Adrian Peterson or others.

The only problem with looking to the waiver wire heading into Week 14 is the lack of viable free agents.

There aren’t many quality players remaining with the fantasy playoffs a week or two away for most leagues, and that means owners must dig a bit deeper than just checking the injury wire and looking for possible fill-ins (picking up a Cleveland Browns receiver just because Travis Benjamin got hurt probably isn’t the best strategy).

With that in mind, here is a look at some waiver-wire options to target heading into Week 14 based on recent production and matchups moving forward. Players were considered potential waiver-wire options if they were owned in less than 60 percent of ESPN.com leagues, as of Sunday.

 

Players to Watch

Kerwynn Williams, RB, Arizona Cardinals

In theory, the Arizona Cardinals backfield should have been a mess Sunday against the St. Louis Rams since Chris Johnson suffered a fractured tibia and Andre Ellington was out with turf toe. Instead, it ran for 175 yards behind David Johnson and Kerwynn Williams.

Picking up Williams is a risky move, because rookie running back David Johnson looked the part of a potential game-changer with 99 rushing yards and a receiving touchdown Sunday. Still, Williams was the only Cardinal to find the end zone on the ground, and he averaged 9.8 yards per carry on his six rushes.

He demonstrated explosiveness with the ball in his hands and likely earned more touches in the future given Arizona’s health in the backfield. David Johnson has been an effective receiver all season (four touchdown catches), and given the other injuries, Arizona could look to use him as more of a pass-catcher to minimize his hits. 

That would, in turn, open up another five to 10 carries a game for Williams, which is more than enough to be an impact fantasy option off the waiver wire if he runs like he did Sunday against the Rams. Josh Weinfuss of ESPN was impressed with Williams:

Williams can be a change-of-pace back for a team in the thick of the playoff race that led the NFL in points per game coming into Week 13. The Cardinals put up major fantasy points every week, and Williams will slide right in for the rest of the season.

 

Ameer Abdullah, RB, Detroit Lions

Overshadowed in the incredible ending of the Thursday night showdown between the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions was the effectiveness of running back Ameer Abdullah.

While he didn’t score a touchdown, he was the only Detroit back with more than eight carries, and he parlayed his 13 rushes into a team-high 67 yards. It was clear the Lions were looking toward the future in what may be a lost season, and establishing the talented rookie as the No. 1 running back is a big part of that.

It was Abdullah’s third straight game with at least 12 carries and second straight game with more than 60 rushing yards.

While the Nebraska product hasn’t put up head-turning numbers yet, the workload is all fantasy owners can ask for if they are going to the waiver wire heading into Week 14. Self-confidence is also in Abdullah’s corner, given his comments to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press:

At the end the end of the day I know I’m one of the better playmakers on this team. So I just got to do a better job of staying on the field and making sure I’m helping my team, ’cause when I’m not on the field I’m not helping out and they need playmakers on the field and I am a playmaker. So just I got to do a better job of just being a reliable option in all areas so I can help out this team and be a playmaker. 

Abdullah is a healthy back who is seeing double-digit carries on a consistent basis heading into the stretch run. That alone makes him worth a waiver-wire flier.

 

Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Tennessee Titans

Fantasy owners are largely looking for upside at this point of the season on the waiver wire, and wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham offers just that. 

The rookie has largely been a non-factor this year since he caught two touchdowns in his first three games, but he looked like a 6’5” star in the making Sunday with 119 receiving yards and a touchdown. Just look at his physicality in the open field, per the NFL:

Sunday was the fourth time in the last five games that Green-Beckham saw at least five targets, and there seems to be a growing rapport between the first-year receiver and Tennessee’s rookie quarterback, Marcus Mariota.

Like the Lions, this is a lost season for the Titans in terms of the playoff race. Look for Tennessee to develop its rookie with an eye on the future, which will lead to fantasy points for the young pass-catcher.

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Ronnie Hillman, Juwan Thompson's 2015 Fantasy Outlook After CJ Anderson's Injury

Fantasy Football
December 6, 2015

The Denver Broncos’ backfield hasn’t exactly been fertile ground for fantasy football owners with C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman splitting time. Those owners who have Hillman on their roster might be in luck, however, with Anderson exiting Sunday’s game against the San Diego Chargers.

Andrew Mason of DenverBroncos.com announced Anderson suffered an ankle injury, which allowed Hillman to be the featured back in the offense.

Hillman‘s value has trended slightly upward in recent weeks as he ran for 203 combined yards in Denver’s last three games. ESPN.com’s Matt Bowen believes the quarterback change from Peyton Manning to Brock Osweiler has benefited both of the Broncos’ top two running backs:

Why the increase? Think of the athleticism, or movement skills, that Osweiler brings to the field compared to Manning. That gives the Broncos the ability to use more boot schemes with Osweiler, thus “holding” backside defenders and second-level linebackers when he carries out the fake, or action, off the handoff. The result? More running lanes, more options and more daylight for both Anderson and Hillman to produce numbers on the ground in a scheme that now caters to their skill sets and abilities.

Especially if Anderson is forced to miss any time, Hillman is worth starting as an RB2/flex in most standard leagues, and he could be a good value play in daily fantasy leagues.

Juwan Thompson is the only thing that scares you. NFL.com’s James Koh noted how Denver wasn’t shy about using Thompson against San Diego:

Should Hillman continue sharing the load in the running game, his value would take a hit. Based on Thompson’s numbers going into Week 13, that hit wouldn’t be too significant.

The second-year running back carried the ball just five times, gaining 13 yards. He also gained 272 yards and three touchdowns on 54 carries in 2014. Unless head coach Gary Kubiak plans on springing a surprise, Thompson is unlikely to be much of a factor on the ground with Anderson at least temporarily out of the picture.

As a result, he shouldn’t register as a fantasy option until his numbers prove otherwise. Adding him as a handcuff for Hillman wouldn’t be advisable.

Thompson is a better pass-blocker than Hillman, which could keep him on the field for passing downs, thus limiting Hillman‘s potential for points in the receiving game.

Still, Hillman is by far the bigger fantasy beneficiary following Anderson’s injury.

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Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings: Final Flex, PPR Predictions for Each Game

Fantasy Football
December 6, 2015

A Week 13 lineup mistake could haunt fantasy football players for the entire offseason.

For some leagues, this is the last game before the postseason. While there are undoubtedly owners already kicking back with a top seed locked down, others are crossing their fingers and biting their nails for a playoff spot.

Since the Miami Dolphins aren’t going to hire you to call their offensive plays so somebody can finally give consistent touches to Lamar Miller, all any fake-team owner can do is set the optimal lineup and hope for the best. The skill positions constantly coerce the most dilemmas, so let’s take a late look at Week 13’s flex rankings for standard and point-per-reception (PPR) formats.

 

C.J. Anderson, RB, Denver Broncos

It’s time to bury the hatchet with C.J. Anderson. Sorry to anyone who wasted a first-round pick on the underwhelming running back, but consider last weekend and this Sunday his apology.

In a strong Sunday night showing concluded by a 48-yard touchdown, the Denver Broncos running back recorded a season-high 153 total yards. After entering Week 12 with one touchdown, he scored twice in an overtime win over the New England Patriots.

Over the last five games, the 24-year-old has looked much more like the guy who led many managers to championships last season. Starting with a 101-yard rebound against the Green Bay Packers, he’s averaging 6.3 yards per run since the start of November.

According to the Denver Post‘s Nicki Jhabvala, he’s confident this resurgence isn’t a fluke.

“What I did Sunday night or against Green Bay, or what I’ve been doing since the bye week, it’s been me,” Anderson said. “It’s the same person. It’s the same thing I’ve known I can do from last season, and I know I can continue to keep doing it. It was like that last year.”

Unfortunately, he has received only 58 touches during those games, including a mere two carries against the Kansas City Chiefs. Denver, however, has ample motivation to recommit to him versus the San Diego Chargers, who yield an NFL-high 4.9 yards per carry and the most fantasy points to opposing running backs

Anderson doesn’t need to completely oust Ronnie Hillman to flourish as a No. 2 fantasy back this weekend. As long as he gets roughly 15 touches, he’ll make a dent.

 

Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo Bills

When Sammy Watkins shows up, he’s the life of the party. Making up for lost time last weekend, the Buffalo Bills’ second-year wideout caught six passes for 158 yards and two scores (all in the opening half) against Kansas City.

After entering November with 147 yards through four games, Watkins has since topped that tally in two separate affairs. Yet sandwiched between Nov. 8’s 168 yards against the Miami Dolphins and last Sunday’s outburst are two quiet outings with 53 combined yards:

Falling for his recent success, several optimistic owners will shove him into their starting lineups without a second thought. He certainly boasts superstar talent and upside, but don’t ignore his low floor when taking a back seat in Buffalo’s run-first offense. Just look at Week 12, when he followed a torrid first half with a catchless second half.

Also consider his difficult opponent. The Houston Texans have not allowed a touchdown in three of their last four games, shutting down two top-10 offenses in the New Orleans Saints and Cincinnati Bengals. Over that stretch, which vaulted them up to No. 3 against the pass, they relinquished the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers. 

Weighing the risk and reward, Watkins remains a No. 3 wideout rather than a sure thing. Given his ability to break open a matchup, he’s worth the gamble in most spots.

 

Danny Amendola, WR, New England Patriots

Back in the summer, who would have thought so many fantasy gamers would spend Week 13 anxiously awaiting Danny Amendola‘s status? After missing New England’s first loss of the season with an injured knee, he is listed as questionable on the team’s official injury report

He offered some guarded optimism earlier in the week, per ESPN.com’s Mike Reiss:

If active, he could have a monster day against the Philadelphia Eagles, who have surrendered 45 points and five passing touchdowns in consecutive weeks. They have also coughed up the most fantasy points and second-most receptions to wideouts.

If that’s not enough, Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski are out, so somebody is going to take advantage of this golden opportunity. A limited arsenal didn’t stop Tom Brady from posting 280 yards and three touchdowns against the Denver Broncos’ top-ranked defense. The Patriots could hold a contest to let a lucky fan start at receiver, and he’d at least merit flex appeal this Sunday.

Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that. Over his last two games, Amendola reeled in 19 of 23 targets for 196 yards. Draft Day Consultants’ C.D. Carter summed up the potential benefits and costs of playing the oft-injured veteran:

If Amendola starts and plays all four quarters, he’s a virtual lock for double-digit receptions. PPR players can’t pass up that productivity if he suits up.

 

Fantasy scoring courtesy of NFL.com

Have any last-minute lineup conundrums? Ask me on Twitter:

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Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 13: Rounding Up Latest Expert Advice on the Web

Fantasy Football
December 5, 2015

Fantasy football owners heading into Week 13 start ’em, sit ’em decisions can never claim they don’t get enough help.

A decade ago, owners maybe had a few spreadsheets to look at and some guy on television briefly running over a few details, but most weren’t tailored toward standard fantasy leagues—not to mention the variety of league types that have popped up since.

Now owners have almost too much information to work with thanks to experts, social media and much more. Below, let’s cut through the noise to examine some of the industry’s top voices and how they advise approaching what looks like a tricky weekend.

 

Michael Beller, Sports Illustrated

Notable Start: Kyle Rudolph, TE, Minnesota Vikings (vs. SEA)

It’s panic time at tight end with Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham out of the picture, but Sports Illustrated‘s Michael Beller offers an interesting alternative in Kyle Rudolph of the Minnesota Vikings.

Rudolph might have only one double-digit outing this year, but Beller explained the situation well: “The Seahawks have been gashed by tight ends all season, allowing the second-most points to the position. Rudolph moves into the safe TE1 class and is a great replacement if you lost Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski.”

Rudolph has never been the greatest play around thanks to Adrian Peterson and the emergence of Stefon Diggs, but as Beller hints, the Seahawks cannot stop tight ends.

In fact, Seattle coughs up the fourth-most points to the position this year on average, with six opposing sets of tight ends hitting double digits. Rudolph looks like a safe alternative this week.

 

Notable Sit: Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers (vs. DEN)

Beller, like many others, seems down on Melvin Gordon of the San Diego Chargers.

The explosive rookie just hasn’t matched fantasy expectations, though, having yet to reach double digits this season—in large part because the team has given him a maximum of 18 carries just once this year.

Gordon had one of his best games as a pro last weekend with 14 carries for 60 yards and eight points, but he still has yet to score a touchdown.

There’s no guarantee San Diego gives the rookie many chances against the Denver Broncos, one of the league’s premier defenses.

 

Nick Mensio, Rotoworld

Notable Start: Alex Smith, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (at OAK)

It’s not often a fantasy owner sees advice suggesting Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith. 

Rotoworld‘s Nick Mensio isn’t afraid to do so, though, as Smith gets what looks like a solid matchup against the Oakland Raiders this week.

Mensio offered some long-term history to back the argument: “In his past three starts against the Raiders, Smith has completed 55-of-86 passes (64 percent) for 818 yards (9.51 YPA) and a 9:0 TD:INT ratio.”

Smith has double digits in every game except one this year to showcase a decent floor, but he’s gone above 20 points just three times. Mensio might be on to something here, though, as Oakland allows the sixth-most points to the position, with two or more passing scores allowed in eight games.

Even if Smith didn’t have a strong history against the Raiders, this looks like a strong matchup. Mensio just added the proverbial icing on the cake.

 

Notable Sit: Brandin Cooks, WR, New Orleans Saints (vs. CAR)

New Orleans Saints wideout Brandin Cooks is one of the better explosive players to own on a week-to-week basis because of his ability to break out.

Starting in Week 8, he rattled off three games in the double digits, two of those at 20 or more points. The problem is when Cooks falls way out of relevancy, such as right after this past weekend with just three points.

For Mensio, this week against the Carolina Panthers looks like one of those disappearing acts:

With Cooks establishing himself as the Saints’ No. 1 receiver, he could see shadow coverage from Panthers shutdown CB Josh Norman, who’s Pro Football Focus’ No. 1 cover corner. In the Week 3 tilt, Norman was in coverage on three of Cooks’ eight targets, allowing two catches for 23 yards. The only way Cooks may avoid Norman is if No. 2 CB Charles Tillman returns and the Panthers play sides, or Cooks moves into the slot more, since Norman rarely travels to cover inside.

The matchup’s too terrible for owners to ignore. Carolina allows the seventh-fewest points to the position thanks in large part to the efforts of Josh Norman. New Orleans doesn’t have another credible threat he’d have to account for, so expect the matchup to go down.

For at least another week, it seems Cooks needs to ride the pine.

 

Jamey Eisenberg, CBSSports.com

Notable Start: Javorius Allen, RB, Baltimore Ravens (at MIA)

Owners might not love the idea of Baltimore Ravens running back Javorius Allen, who in two games as starter has totaled 23 points.

But CBSSports.com’s Jamey Eisenberg chooses to take the good with the bad when it comes to Justin Forsett’s replacement:

The positives were he scored his first NFL touchdown and finished with 12 carries for 55 yards and four catches for 29 yards. He led the team in rushing and was second in receptions, but he also lost seven carries for Terrance West, which we hope isn’t a sign of things to come. I expect Allen to again get the majority of touches in Week 13 at Miami, and hopefully by a wider margin over West.

Maybe Eisenberg is on to something here, as the Miami Dolphins surrender the third-most points to running backs this year, with 17 or more points allowed to opposing backfields in each of their past six outings. 

Considering Allen is the entire Baltimore offense on his own, maybe that’s not such an unrealistic goal. 

 

Notable Sit: DeMarco Murray, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (at NE)

It’s been a roller coaster with DeMarco Murray of the Philadelphia Eagles this year. 

Starting in Week 9, he rattled off outings of 21 and 11 points, then over his last two has nine total points while his team got whipped in 45-17 and 45-14 fashion.

For Eisenberg, a sudden lack of production, especially through the air, doesn’t mesh well with the team’s recent performances:

But he’s gone three games in a row without a touchdown, and his past two games were disastrous with nine combined Fantasy points against the Buccaneers and Lions, including no catches in Week 12 for the first time all year. New England has allowed three running backs to score double digits in Fantasy points in the past two games, but it’s tough to run on the Patriots at home – and tough to rely on any Eagles right now.

New England might have let up three scores to running backs last week, but call it an anomaly considering the total before the outburst was just four.

Murray’s been unreliable all season. Given his team’s struggles to produce against bad teams, it’s hard to imagine he’ll see any form of significant opportunities in Foxborough against a Tom Brady-led offense.

 

All scoring info courtesy of ESPN standard leagues, as is points-against info and ownership stats as of Dec. 5.

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