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Fantasy Football 2017: Updated Fantasy Football Mock Draft

Fantasy Football
August 28, 2017

One of my favorite draft tips seems like nothing more than a suggestion until disaster strikes. Every year, I tell everyone to wait to hold your draft to avoid as many preseason pitfalls as possible. You can gather more information to differentiate training camp hype and legitimate, role-solidifying performances. Most importantly, you don’t have to sweat through games and practices hoping your players stay healthy.  

Those who drafted Julian Edelman before or during last Friday night’s preseason action learned just how detrimental meaningless games can be to a fantasy roster. According to Albert Breer of TheMMQB.com, Edelman suffered a torn ACL and will miss the 2017 season. While that may boost the fantasy values of Brandin Cooks and Chris Hogan, it takes away a player firmly in the WR2 range.

On the same night, the Kansas City Chiefs saw veteran running back Spencer Ware go down with a knee injury. According to BJ Kissel of Chiefs.com, the team’s head athletic trainer Rick Burkholder said Ware has a torn PCL in addition to other damage. Ware will get a second opinion, but the injury is expected to end his season. That opens the door for rookie Kareem Hunt to lead the way, which is a huge boost to his fantasy value. 

Since this is only a mock draft, I will note it was conducted a day before the injuries to Edelman and Ware, so it’s hard to truly assess the values of any players affected by those situations. 

This is a 12-team, points-per-reception format with a starting lineup of one QB, two RB, three WR, one TE, one FLEX (RB/WR/TE), one K and one D/ST. It includes a collection of my Twitter followers, as well as myself picking out of the No. 7 spot. You can check out the full results of the draft here

In addition to analyzing each round, I’ll take you inside my head to explain the strategy and process for each of my picks.


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Kareem Hunt, Charcandrick West’s Fantasy Outlook After Spencer Ware’s Injury

Fantasy Football
August 26, 2017

Kareem Hunt and Charcandrick West have been vaulted to the top of fantasy football wish lists after Spencer Ware suffered LCL and PCL damage Friday night against the Seattle Seahawks, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport

Ware was thrust into a starting role for the Kansas City Chiefs last season due to lingering knee problems for Jamaal Charles. He set career highs in starts (14), rushing attempts (214), rushing yards (921), receptions (33) and receiving yards (447) in 2016. 

Losing Ware leaves a heavy burden for the Chiefs offense to fill, though West has shown some potential when he’s been given a chance. The 26-year-old ran for 634 yards and four touchdowns on 160 carries in 2015. 

Becoming the primary backup last season, West didn’t fare as well. His yards per carry dipped from 4.0 in 2015 to 3.3 in 2016, and he only carried the ball 88 times. 

With that underwhelming showing still fresh in the mind of Chiefs coaches, it appears Hunt will have every opportunity to thrive after Andy Reid told reporters Saturday that the rookie will be “the next man up” with Ware down, according to ESPN.com’s Adam Teicher

Pro Football Focus graded Hunt’s 2016 season as the best among all college running backs with an overall grade of 94.9. The Toledo product ran for 1,475 yards and 10 touchdowns on 262 carries as a senior. 

PFF’s draft analysis team offered this scouting report for Hunt prior to the draft:

“Hunt is a well-rounded player who was highly productive in college. He’s one of the most elusive running backs in the draft class. Hunt’s balance stands out from the pack and is at his best when in the open field. His skill set fits best in a zone-heavy offense, but can run any concepts. Toledo got him more involved in the passing game in his final year and showed significant improvement.”

Since Alex Smith’s key to success is limiting turnovers and routinely checking down on his passes, Hunt should see plenty of throws come his way in addition to the featured rushing load.

If he can adjust to the speed of the NFL as a runner, fantasy owners could have a dynamic option on their hands.   

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Fantasy Football Picks 2017: 2-Round Mock Draft and Strategy Breakdown

Fantasy Football
August 26, 2017

For fantasy football owners, it doesn’t get more important than the initial draft.

It is crucial, then, for owners to approach the draft like a typical Sunday for their team—not everything will go according to plan. Like coaches themselves, opponents will have plans of their own and reshape how things turn out. 

But owners can still approach a draft with a baseline strategy. The waiver wire and trades function as safety nets if something goes wrong, but only to a certain extent. Understanding a foundational approach and having access to details like cheat sheets and mocks during a live draft puts owners at an advantage. 

Here is a look at one sampling of a baseline strategy owners can lean on, using scoring and information from Yahoo 12-team standard leagues. 

           

Mock Draft

                  

One can tell from the above running backs are the quarterbacks of fantasy football.  

That’s a tad confusing, so look at it this way—the NFL prioritizes quarterbacks almost over everything else in large part because of scarcity. Few potential franchise players come out each year, which explains guys like Blake Bortles coming off the board in the top 10. 

If the NFL has a quarterback problem, fantasy football has a running back problem. True workhorses are over and new-era workhorses—guys who see north of 300 touches thanks to a combination of air and ground work—are few and far between after David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell. 

Loading up on running back over the first two rounds isn’t the only viable path to fantasy success. But as 4for4’s Chris Raybon (via Sports Illustrated) explained, running back early is about plotting a path of success through the rest of the draft: “But to really master fantasy drafting, you also need to take a bottom-up approach, where you let your early-round decisions be informed by what kind of value will be available in the middle and late rounds.”

Per the average draft position (ADP) charts, 12 backs come off the board over the first two rounds of 12-team drafts. The first three backs selected after the second round are Isaiah Crowell, Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook.

Meaning, if owners neglect running back, the first options available are a Cleveland Browns running back and two rookies. 

Which isn’t to suggest an Ezekiel Elliott or Jordan Howard won’t happen again. But it is best to get at least one notable running back out of the way early, especially when the separation between the middle-of-the-pack receivers is so small. 

With the bigger emphasis on passing over the years, wideouts have emerged as the steadiest fantasy position of all. A whopping 25 wideouts hit the 1,000-yard mark a year ago and 15 scored eight or more touchdowns. 

Target hogs like an Antonio Brown or Mike Evans will always remain a priority and flirt with the 300-point mark, but we’re talking a position where Rishard Matthews reeled in nine touchdowns a year ago and sits with an 11.06 ADP going into drafts this year. 

Readers will notice this hasn’t addressed quarterbacks much. But the NFL’s most important position simply isn’t in fantasy football. The better owners do at skill positions over the first few rounds of a draft, the less important quarterback becomes. Given how easy it is to project a quarterback’s performance each week, streaming the position and picking the best matchup is a simple process—and one made even easier over the years thanks to the emergence of daily fantasy football.

Remember, 19 quarterbacks threw at least 20 touchdowns a year ago and 13 hit 25 or more. The bottom of the latter list was Kirk Cousins, who carries an ADP of 8.03. Cousins and a later option like say, Sam Bradford (14.06), doesn’t sound so bad when recalling Bradford threw 20 scores. 

Tight end is as simple as targets and usage after transcendent talents like Rob Gronkowski and Tyler Eifert. Both are injury risks, but owners can use a cheat code of sorts by prioritizing their drafted quarterback’s real-life tight ends in the late rounds. Even if a tight end only grabs one pass during a week, if that pass is a touchdown in the redzone, owners score double. 

Other points of emphasis range from don’t worry too much about bye weeks and prioritizing predictable players with high usage rates in the later rounds. The waiver wire exists for a reason and steady production off the bench can help weather the bye-week storms. 

Again, owners need to be ready for any and all angles as a draft unfolds. Runs on positions and other random occurrences can happen when 12 owners get together. A baseline understanding and flexibility to alter the approach within the confines of the understanding will put an owner ahead. 

Then all they have to do is make the right weekly lineup decisions, peruse the waiver wire well and outmaneuver others in trades. No pressure. 

           

All scoring info, points-against info and ownership stats courtesy of Yahoo standard leagues. Average draft position courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator.

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Fantasy Football 2017: Skill-Position Rankings and Top Sleepers

Fantasy Football
August 26, 2017

Informed fantasy football participants will discover a bevvy of depth at the skill positions when preparing for drafts. 

As the league continues to purchase more aerial real estate, the surplus of strong quarterbacks has deflated the position’s demand. While there’s no such movement to wait out wide receivers, the pool is also deeper than ever.

A wider distribution of labor dwindles the supply of workhorse running backs, thus weakening the position’s top tiers. Yet more rushers will receive opportunities to contribute, so there’s less pressure to secure multiple backs in the opening rounds.

Even tight end has more interesting targets than usual. With a healthy mix of steady contributors and breakout candidates, drafters who pass on Rob Gronkowski won’t have to settle for scraps.

Let’s run through rankings for running backs, wide receivers and tight ends tailored for standard scoring. Those players can’t qualify as true sleepers, but the highlighted players may fall through the seams on draft day. 

         

RB Rankings

1. David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals

2. Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers

3. LeSean McCoy, Buffalo Bills

4. Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons

5. Melvin Gordon, Los Angeles Chargers

6. Jay Ajayi, Miami Dolphins

7. Jordan Howard, Chicago Bears

8. DeMarco Murray, Tennessee Titans

9. Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams

10. Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys

11. Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars

12. Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland Browns

13. Lamar Miller, Houston Texans

14. Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers

15. Ty Montgomery, Green Bay Packers

16. Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers

17. Marshawn Lynch, Oakland Raiders

18. Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings

19. Frank Gore, Indianapolis Colts

20. Bilal Powell, New York Jets

21. Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals

22. C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos

23. Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs

24. Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints

25. Terrance West, Baltimore Ravens

26. Danny Woodhead, Baltimore Ravens

27. Paul Perkins, New York Giants

28. Ameer Abdullah, Detroit Lions

29. LeGarrette Blount, Philadelphia Eagles

30. Adrian Peterson, New Orleans Saints

 

Sleeper: Samaje Perine, Washington

Sleepers usually gain steam during the preseason. Yet the Samaje Perine hype train has stuttered with Rob Kelley grasping a firmer hold of Washington’s starting job. As his price tumbles, the rookie makes more sense as an affordable upside gamble.

According to Fantasy Football Calculator, the Oklahoma alum held an average draft position inside the seventh round of 12-team drafts before an underwhelming preseason debut. Despite a better second showing, his stock tumbled into the ninth round and outside the top 100.

Kelley conversely has risen from the eighth to seventh, commanding a No. 74 ADP as of Friday. That’s a fair price for the expected starter. According to ESPN.com’s Matthew Berry, he was a top-15 fantasy back in standard and point-per-reception formats after usurping Matt Jones for the starting spot in Week 8.

He’s also a volume-dependent rusher who accrued 363 total yards in his final five games after a 137-yard, three-touchdown outburst against the Green Bay Packers. He may be the starter now, but that would change after an underwhelming start. Just ask Matt Jones. 

Perine, who posted three 1,000-yard rushing seasons for the Sooners, is faster, stronger and more agile than Kelley. Opportunity ultimately matters more than ability, so Kelley warrants a higher draft slot barring a sharp preseason turnaround. But sometimes it’s wise to bet on talent winning.

While Washington’s quick and balanced offense could loft Kelley into a No. 2 fantasy back, Perine would leverage a bigger role into league-changing production. Instead of overpaying for a trendy player, take the newcomer at a discount. 

         

WR Rankings

1. Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers

2. Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons

3. Odell Beckham Jr., New York Giants

4. Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

5. A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals

6. Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers

7. Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints

8. Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks

9. Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys

10. Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders

11. T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts

12. Brandin Cooks, New England Patriots

13. DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans

14. Terrelle Pryor, Washington

15. Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos

16. Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers

17. Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars

18. Alshon Jeffery, Philadelphia Eagles

19. Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers

20. Michael Crabtree, Oakland Raiders 

21. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals

22. Golden Tate, Detroit Lions

23. Sammy Watkins, Los Angeles Rams

24. Martavis Bryant, Pittsburgh Steelers

25. Stefon Diggs, Minnesota Vikings

26. Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs

27. Jamison Crowder, Washington

28. Willie Snead, New Orleans Saints

29. Pierre Garcon, San Francisco 49ers

30. Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina Panthers

 

Sleeper: Robby Anderson, New York Jets

Somebody has to play quarterback for the New York Jets. That person will have to throw the football to someone.

The top wide receiver won’t be Brandon Marshall or Eric Decker, who respectively now play for the New York Giants and Tennessee Titans. It also won’t be Quincy Enunwa, who suffered a season-ending neck injury.

The leading candidate is currently Robby Anderson, who on volume alone should easily obliterate his No. 172 default ranking in Yahoo Sports leagues. 

Even the NFL‘s worst passing offense should foster at least one decent fantasy wideout. The Los Angeles Rams were unwatchable last year, but Kenny Britt still produced 1,002 receiving yards in 15 games. Enunwa emerged as a bright spot for Gang Green amid quarterback turmoil in 2016, and Anderson can do the same this season. Replicating Enunwa‘s 857 yards and four touchdowns would make Anderson a solid matchup play.

Prior to Week 3’s preseason bout with the Giants, ESPN.com’s Rich Cimini said Anderson is “separating from the rest of the receiving corps” in practice. Jets receivers coach Karl Dorrell noted the 24-year-old’s progress to NJ.com’s Connor Hughes.

“Robby’s definitely improving,” Dorrell said. “He’s understanding the mindset it takes to be a professional going into his second year in terms of how hard you work at practice, and prepare off the field

Anyone who throws a dart at Anderson should root for Bryce Petty to win the quarterback battle. In their four games together, the wideout caught 17 of 35 targets for 309 yards and two touchdowns. He snagged a reception of 40 yards or more in each contest.

Anderson doesn’t need to morph into an elite option to give drafters a strong return on investment. For the minuscule asking price, he will delight them by offering occasional No. 3 receiver or flex appeal.  

            

TE Rankings

1. Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots

2. Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs

3. Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers

4. Jordan Reed, Washington

5. Jimmy Graham, Seattle Seahawks

6. Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings

7. Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles

8. Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers

9. Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati Bengals

10. Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans

11. Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions

12. Jack Doyle, Indianapolis Colts

13. Cameron Brate, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

14. Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys

15. Martellus Bennett, Green Bay Packers

16. C.J. Fiedorowicz, Houston Texans

17. Coby Fleener, New Orleans Saints

18. Antonio Gates, Los Angeles Chargers

19. Charles Clay, Buffalo Bills

20. Austin Hooper, Atlanta Falcons

 

Sleeper: Cameron Brate, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Most leagues consist of 10 or 12 teams and one starting tight end. Investing draft capital on a reserve isn’t necessary—especially for those who dipped into the top tier—so there’s no need to dive deeper than the top-20 rankings for a standard-league sleeper.

Hunter Henry and Jack Doyle are the popular picks who have lost sleeper eligibility beyond the casual groupings. Perennial sleepers who found subdued success last season, Zach Ertz and Eric Ebron are solid value picks who have graduated from such consideration.

Austin Hooper? He’s the trendy choice because of his Super Bowl touchdown, but don’t go overboard for someone with 25 catches in 17 games including the postseason. Evan Engram, David Njoku and O.J. Howard have the tools to become future fantasy fixtures, but rookie tight ends rarely factor heavily into passing offenses. Leave them for dynasty formats.

By these strict guidelines, Cameron Brate also shouldn’t qualify as a sleeper. One would think everyone is wide awake to someone who tied Henry for a position-high eight touchdowns last season. According to Pro-Football-Reference.com, Kyle Rudolph (10) and Jordan Reed (eight) are the only tight ends who received more targets inside the 10 than Brate‘s seven, five of which he turned into scores.

Yet he’s readily available for a bench slot. Fantasy Football Calculator lists his ADP as the 20th tight end off the board.

Although he developed a strong red-zone rapport with Jameis Winston, the Buccaneers spent a first-round pick on Howard. The newcomer’s emergence appears to be scaring drafters away from Brate, but Yahoo Sports’ Scott Pianowski isn’t worried about Howard stealing the 6’5″ incumbent’s thunder:

With Howard learning the ropes and putting his run-blocking skills to use, look for Brate to remain a low-level starting tight end for drafters not interested in taking one early.

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Fantasy Football 2017: Sleepers to Target and Possible Team Names for Your Squad

Fantasy Football
August 25, 2017

So close. So very, very close.

The 2017 NFL season is almost upon us, which means we’re oh so close to everybody’s favorite hobby, fantasy football, renewing for another season. So to usher in a new season, let’s break down a few sleepers to target in your fantasy drafts and a few funny team names humbly submitted for your consideration

           

Sleepers

Below, I’ll choose one sleeper from each offensive position.

             

Derek Carr, QB, Oakland Raiders

I understand why you may not be inclined to consider Derek Carr a sleeper. After all, he was an MVP candidate last season and signed a five-year, $125 million contract extension this offseason. Sleepers don’t typically have that resume.

But Carr is being drafted, on average, in the 11th round of Yahoo standard drafts and is the 13th quarterback coming off the board. For a player with top-seven upside at the position, that makes him a legitimate sleeper.

Why does he have top-seven upside? 

Carr was on pace to set his career high in passing yardage last season before he was hurt and was close to equaling his career high of 32 touchdowns. Coming into his fourth season, it isn’t a stretch to believe that Carr will continue to improve. 

He also has dynamic wide receivers in Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper, and while the team may run a bit more with Marshawn Lynch in the fold, this offense should still be built around the passing game.

Carr, at the very least, represents little risk. Since you can draft him in the later rounds as your QB2, the chance that his performance from the last two years is his ceiling is mitigated. But if you believe Carr will continue to improve, you can wait on quarterbacks until the later rounds, load up at your other positions and draft Carr and another high-risk, high-reward player to pair with him like Jameis Winston or Kirk Cousins.

        

Dion Lewis, RB, New England Patriots

The New England Patriots’ backfield is a logjam. But within that logjam, Dion Lewis just may have the most upside.

Yes, James White is the best receiving back. Lewis is no slouch in that area, however—remember, in his last 14 regular season games, White has 53 receptions for 482 yards and two scores. Yes, Mike Gillislee is widely expected to be the team’s primary early-downs and short-yardage option. But in his last 14 games, Lewis has rushed for 517 yards and two scores.

In total, that’s 999 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns, or 123.9 fantasy points. Broken down even further, that’s 8.8 fantasy points per game. That may not sound like much, but consider the context.

In 2015, Lewis was well on his way to being one of fantasy’s biggest breakout stars, as he averaged 12.3 fantasy points per contest before tearing his ACL. By the time he returned last November, LeGarrette Blount and White had formed a dynamic duo at the position and Lewis earned a major role in the offense. 

But with Blount gone this year, Lewis could see himself reinserted into the game plan in a big way. Even his teammates know how dangerous he can be.

“He is an exciting football player,” White told the Ordway, Merloni & Fauria show, per Ryan Hannable of WEEI.com. “Every time the ball is in his hands, it’s an opportunity for a big play. I know defenses must hold their breath every time he touches the rock. He can make an explosive play at any time. That’s my guy right there.”

Trying to pick which New England running back to trust, even on a weekly basis, is often near-impossible. But Lewis is a gamble worth taking in the late rounds.

          

Pierre Garcon, WR, San Francisco 49ers

Somebody has to catch passes in San Francisco, right? Why not Pierre Garcon?

Look, we all know he’s not a sexy pick for your fantasy team. And maybe he doesn’t have that pure boom-or-bust potential you seek in a sleeper. But Garcon has registered at least 750 or more receiving yards in four straight seasons and seven times in his career. He had 79 receptions for 1,041 yards and three touchdowns last season in Washington.

And he had his best year in 2013, catching 113 passes for 1,346 yards and five touchdowns. His offensive coordinator that year was Kyle Shanahan, who is now his head coach. And unlike in Washington over the past several years, he’ll be the clear top option in the passing game. 

So no, he isn’t the sexiest sleeper pick out there among wide receivers. But he may just be the smartest one.

                  

Cameron Brate, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

You would think after a season in which he posted 57 receptions for 660 yards and eight touchdowns, Cameron Brate would get a bit more respect from fantasy owners. 

Alas, thus far that has not been the case.

Not only is Brate coming off the board, on average, in the 14th round in Yahoo standard leagues, he’s also being drafted after his teammate, rookie O.J. Howard. Those numbers are a bit misleading, as Howard is being drafted in fewer leagues overall, but it’s still a reminder that Brate is sliding under the radar again.

Yes, the Bucs have more weapons in the passing game with Howard and DeSean Jackson in Tampa. But rookie tight ends rarely make a huge impact for teams immediately, especially from a fantasy perspective, while the type of targets Jackson receives will obviously differ from the usage Brate receives. 

And Brate has room to grow entering his fourth season. He improved in each of his first three seasons and has shown solid chemistry with Winston. Plus, Mike Evans and Jackson are going to require plenty of attention, so Brate could see favorable matchups to exploit. 

Don’t discard Brate just yet. He still has legitimate TE1 upside at a bargain cost.

              

Team Names

Two things about name suggestions. One, most of the good names with established stars have already been made, so we’ll focus on rookies or breakout players from last season. Two, these will still probably be really corny. 

With those caveats in mind, here are a few suggestions:

  • Trubisky Business
  • Live McCaffrey or Die
  • Mahomes Alone
  • Finding Adoree
  • Exotic Engram (That’s for my Destiny peeps.)
  • Snead for Speed
  • Brate Expectations

Hey, you were warned.

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